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Author Topic: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Game Over: Outplayed  (Read 7286 times)

Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #225 on: December 28, 2024, 12:16:50 am »

You know what, it's annoying, but if we trust each other, Imp, the technically correct play is to no-lynch here. Then we tell Hyper to jail Crystal while Verm roleblocks EuchreJack, you follow Hyper, I track Verm.

Various other variations are possible as long as we settle on one.
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Imp

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #226 on: December 28, 2024, 12:20:02 am »

Do you think Crysm would?

Crystal is the hardest to read player to me.  You are not easy, but you're... you let me see some of your mind.

Crystal as town tends to passive, as anti-town tends 'useful but!'.

That claim to protect and to protect you N2.

Feels really wrong to make.  A lie.  A townie lie?  I don't see the benefit.

So she's the town?  I hecka don't know.  She thinks she can read who is and isn't town and nail the protects and not get dead?  Or she's maf and doesn't want to risk being elim without any good claims what she did?  Who kills a claimed doctor?  I mean ignoring fake claimed doctors, sigh.  Yeah, I'm never gonna predict you freaking you fake claim doctor D1 and not be elim and real doc is and scum fake claim win the whole game.  I'm alive, you're not scum.  Maybe can bet the game on that without any fear.  You do that to me twice and I'm gonna figure out how to simultaneously curse and praise you.  I don't think you risked it here.

So I'd lean CM elim.  I'm wrong again I dunno.  I am not arguing against Jack.  His claim's weird too.  Both theirs are.  We elim maf today and we get another day for sure.

Now, kills.

I've never seen CM kill?  Part of a team in FBYOR 6.  Was anti-town thief no kills but framing in Tric's Heist.  I can't remember where else CM was anti-town, maybe I should take the time to search that, or someone can remind.  I don't think CM was decider in who died in FBYOR, and then you commuted her for like ever.

Kills of NJW N1, but I know he redirected.  No idea who to who.  But he died, so he was targeted or redirected to self and picked the killer.  Who didn't do anything else obvious, I think would redirect kill and action?  If the redirect was to NJW, that could be CrystalizedMire (claimed to hit Tric who was jailed; Hyper said jailed/protected, could be a setup between them).  Verm said no action N1 (I believe him town though).  You didn't have a claim N1 (I think you're town though).  Of course it's not NQT who had no claim.  Any of those who can kill could have been NJW redirect to self so he died, otherwise someone killed him on purpose and whoever he redirected didn't do anything, so Verm, maybe you, or NQT.  But the other claims of D1 all hit their expected targets, or the claimer said they did.

N2, death of Tric.  Maf would kill suspected kill-able town or SK, probably.  Not sure that alone is reason to kill, or other reason(s).

I never learned kill analysis, I'm maybe better at it than reading teams.  Whoever took out our jack of all trades and the claimed killer.  Because of their playskills, because of suspected power roles, any other reason, I don't know.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #227 on: December 28, 2024, 12:39:07 am »

Crystal as town tends to passive, as anti-town tends 'useful but!'.

That claim to protect and to protect you N2.

Feels really wrong to make.  A lie.  A townie lie?  I don't see the benefit.
I agree with this an awful lot. It feels like an appeal to my vanity.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #228 on: December 28, 2024, 12:41:20 am »

I will say I see another benefit to the no-lynch plan: it allows possible time for notquitethere to chime in.
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Imp

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #229 on: December 28, 2024, 12:44:58 am »

You know what, it's annoying, but if we trust each other, Imp, the technically correct play is to no-lynch here. Then we tell Hyper to jail Crystal while Verm roleblocks EuchreJack, you follow Hyper, I track Verm.

Various other variations are possible as long as we settle on one.

Let's here what others say and think.  Verm said he wants CM elim and me blocked.  My bad leg might prevent me following anyway, but I would be told if so.  So I'll know if I'm blocked/jailed even if I fail.  But if he is set on me blocked, that's going to matter to plans.

I'm not sure if anyone else has strong feelings or how flexible people will agree to be.

Does your track have any limitations you think townie to share?

If there's 3 maf there has to be an SK.  I don't want to believe in that world where 4 of us are anti-town.

So there's 2 maf.  And maybe an SK, and/or a mafally.  SK is unlikely unless an arsonist.

If we don't elim today...

There's a flaw, maybe.

Do mafia have to kill? OP doesn't say they do.

The Mafia are the classic informed minority, a small team of killers. They benefit from private communication during all phases, as well as a Factional, Free, Mafiakill, and win when their numbers match or exceed the number of other players in the game, and at least one Mafia player is still alive, and it is not possible for them to be opposed.

Fallacy, may we know if mafia have to kill if possible for them to act?

If they do have to kill that flaw isn't a problem.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #230 on: December 28, 2024, 12:49:01 am »

If we don't elim today...

There's a flaw, maybe.

Do mafia have to kill? OP doesn't say they do.

If they do have to kill that flaw isn't a problem.
Yeah, that flaw has come up before. But a night when the mafia choose not to kill is still an okay night for town. We can just do it all again if we have to. No stalemate rule in mafia!

Does your track have any limitations you think townie to share?
Nothing that would impact my ability to follow through. There's a limitation - seems like all of town were made a little weak, which is worth remembering when we look at claims - but it's no trouble to work around.
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Imp

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #231 on: December 28, 2024, 12:57:11 am »

Discord shows Fal offline.

I sketch the flaw in case it's not a flaw, if not it doesn't matter either.

But if maf can choose not to kill, and we pin 2 players.

If we pin both maf they cannot kill, no kills (unless SK finally kills, that would be insane, let's say no there).

But if maf don't have to kill, then anyone we pin, 1 maf or no maf, the maf can choose not to kill.

How do we read it then?

And if we pin 1 maf the other can kill.

But like say Hyper jails Crystal and Verm blocks Jack, and I succeed in following Hyper and you track Verm - and there's no kills.

Okay, you're town and I'm town, we could not kill, Verm's town and could not kill (or I'm wrong again about 1/both of you, man this lesson rubs deep).

Any 2 of the three of Hyper/Crystal/Verm couldn't or chose not to kill, so elim who?

I'm not sure it helps.  Even if I'm right about all my strong town picks.

If we don't elim today...

There's a flaw, maybe.

Do mafia have to kill? OP doesn't say they do.

If they do have to kill that flaw isn't a problem.
Yeah, that flaw has come up before. But a night when the mafia choose not to kill is still an okay night for town. We can just do it all again if we have to. No stalemate rule in mafia!

It does give NQT more time.  And all of us to think.  But Verm only has the 2 blocks, I can be unable to finish my follow.

Interested to hear what the rest of us say.  I lean towards elim, but I'm open to no-elim.  Maybe someone has a townie secret too that more time would help.  That's okay as well, even if that could be an option.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #232 on: December 28, 2024, 02:05:54 am »

Fallacy, may we know if mafia have to kill if possible for them to act?

The use of the Mafiakill is not mandatory.
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Imp

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #233 on: December 28, 2024, 03:02:43 am »

Stuff that NQT hopefully tells whichever one of us:

Who NJW redirected to who.  Reads and ideas/observations of the dead, hope you guys can help us.  I don't think Tric would have info from N2 but NJW sure does from N1, if only his own action, and maybe whatever else happened if anything else did.
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Crystalizedmire

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #234 on: December 28, 2024, 01:38:46 pm »

Well, let's see. I wasn't roleblocked. I wasn't jailkept. Imp wasn't roleblocked or jailkept. TricMagic wasn't jailkept.

Hyper, Crystal, Vermilion, what did you all do?
I'm sorry! I thought someone else protected him! I decided to protect you instead

Who did you think would protect Tric and why, CrystalizedMire?  And why protect Max?
I filed Maximum Spin as probably not mafia and since Tricmagic was jailkept the previous night, I thought it would happen again.
So Crystalizedmire, are you claiming to have Protected Max, or Jailkept Max?
Bodyguarded him, yeah.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #235 on: December 28, 2024, 05:51:06 pm »

Well, let's see. I wasn't roleblocked. I wasn't jailkept. Imp wasn't roleblocked or jailkept. TricMagic wasn't jailkept.

Hyper, Crystal, Vermilion, what did you all do?
I'm sorry! I thought someone else protected him! I decided to protect you instead

Who did you think would protect Tric and why, CrystalizedMire?  And why protect Max?
I filed Maximum Spin as probably not mafia and since Tricmagic was jailkept the previous night, I thought it would happen again.
So Crystalizedmire, are you claiming to have Protected Max, or Jailkept Max?
Bodyguarded him, yeah.

Last night I found this a little suspect, but today I'm warm to it for whatever reason. Let's just blame Jack and move on.
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Imp

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #236 on: December 28, 2024, 07:41:45 pm »

I think one of the biggest decisions we need to make is if we elim today or no-elim.  As well as who, if we elim.

Hopefully my strong town reads are right.  It would be awesome to have 2 or 3 anti-town in the pool of Jack, CrystalizedMire, and Hyper.  Perfect if we nail maf specifically, I think we need that.

If we don't have an SK (and if we have one, where are the kills - must be douses?  More likely no SK) then maf wins as soon as maf= 1/2 total players.

Elim or not is a huge choice.  If we don't elim Verm, Hyper, or CrystalizedMire, we have at least their claims that they can block/jail/protect.  We can set up who we ask to do what, but that may help maf as much as it could hinder.

Jack's claim is odd.  He's not caught in a lie, nobody is yet.  I do think he's a good choice for today's elim.  I sus CrystalizedMire more but that might mean she's town with the way my reads have gone this game.  It would absolutely suck to see a town doc flip today.

Last night I found this a little suspect, but today I'm warm to it for whatever reason. Let's just blame Jack and move on.

If we elim Jack and he's not maf (even if he's maf ally) we really need to prevent the kill tonight.  If he is maf, we also need to catch the kill but we have breathing room, and more if we catch it.  If we don't elim, we have no chance that we elim one of the maf before tonight, we still need to prevent the kill if we can but we have one more potential target to consider protecting.  So I lean elim.

We're pretty silent.  About 20 hours before EoD, not clear if an extension would help anyone have time in a day.  I don't need one, but what about you really quiet folks?

We also kinda need to decide if we want to 'system' who does what tonight, or leave it to each player's foresight.

Thoughts?
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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

Maximum Spin

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #237 on: December 28, 2024, 08:53:22 pm »

Yeah, I think we should do it too. I'd like to add that three anti-town IS possible if there's still some reason they can't insta-win, but I think it's unlikely.

I think that we should at least have a plan for if we DO hit scum today - who we think is most likely to be the other and who is capable of blocking that player. It depends on who we do choose to lynch.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #238 on: December 28, 2024, 11:06:21 pm »

When the light is lowest, the remaining few still present are more hesitant to act. Thus far, only one among you have made their enmity known.

However...

Your time is running out.

Quote from: Votecount
Imp (0):
Maximum Spin (0):
Crystalizedmire (1): VermillionSkies
EuchreJack (0):
VermillionSkies (0):
Hyper (0):

No Execution (0):

Not Voting (5): Imp, Maximum Spin, Crystalizedmire, EuchreJack, Hyper

4 to hammer.

Day 3 will end at 2 PM Central time, tomorrow - in approximately 16 hours, or upon a hammer.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia 4 / Day 3: Fallen Fiend (6 / 10)
« Reply #239 on: December 28, 2024, 11:48:35 pm »

I'm torn between voting Crystal, Hyper, or Max.

I need to catch up a bit.
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