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[Oliverz144]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Alright.  I have 12 posts left for today after this, and there's about 5 hours left in D3, I ready-ish if we CFD (though I think flash mob's a more ideal term these days).

I also apparently need to unwind from work and feel good again, because wow, I am agressive-feeling.

but for some reason [imp] not being utterly paranoid over a scum result feels.. wrong somehow. It might be nothing, but it’s a concern so I wanted to bring it up.

Having evidence that a NK redirecting, NK eating player has targeted me 2 nights in a row, whom I inspected and got good on, as well as extra info on, helps reduce my 'paranoia' of NK considerably.  I'm also aware of an arsonist lining folks up in a row then whoosh, or a multi-target role wiper able to just take out everyone who ever said no at once, can do vast harm and if I have any defenses against that stuff I'm not saying at this time.

You caught various things.  Didn't catch those details I guess, instead of 'this is a good way to sway what Hector says in Hector's eyes', surely.

What's your role doing?  What do you surmise about why I and Juicebox were targeted for the joke?

Do you choose to explain why I should be happy towny people are targeted for jokes, and not be thinking arsonist about it?  Or whatever your actual take on it is.


Oliverz, you can help deal with that forgetting responses to posts by making them as you read, saving them to post in a group.  Kinda looks like you do that already, so unsure.

2. Any thoughts of lynches outside of
4maskwolf
feel like scumclaims to me.

Guess you think I'm scumclaiming then, because I sure do think about elims that are not 4maskwolf.

I don't know enough to say don't elim 4mask wolf, but I sure expect that Vermilion is what he claims.  So there's probably 1+ ways for 1+ evil teams to resolve him, be that arson, rolewipe, stuff even stranger or just more brutal.


Even if Verm's a godfather, town has the elim.  We don't need intricate townie ways to elim a bulletproof evil like evil usually needs some mech method to elim a bulletproof townie, especially in a game where there's a risk the bulletproof gets inspected.  And we seem to have a rolewiper, and I suspect Hector's predecesor of being an arsonist.  Between the two of those roles, as of D3 Hector's got a potential douse on Imp and Juicebox; Mater's got a potential rolewipe on Oscar and Max.  If those 4 targets all happen to be town and also take those falls, at least Oscar and Max have votes still (I hope, voting's potentially a base ability of sorts too

I also note that people wanting me to not inspect them get no defensive value out of a still-living 4maskwolf.  The odds of me reinspecting 4mask are extremely low, so any other suspects have more value as possible barricades than the elim today.

It's probably too early for me to plan for my possible soon demise since we expect to go from D3 straight to D4.

I'm still going to discuss, because what if (Like a bleeping ignite that maybe triggers 'EoD' instead of during night or whatever).  I think I suck at noticing real partnerships, but you guys who are much better at it can likely dig through my ideas for anything that you think's worth checking on, if any, in case I mention something not already considered by the pros-at-this-side.

Restating: 
IF CM is evil, the odds are high that Wolfkey is also evil and partnered.  I think this because Wolfkey started D3 trying to figure out who claimed what inspects, then stated a perfect pattern to cover for CM's claims; if we find out CM is evil consider if it makes sense to flip Wolfkey for that.

IF Wolfkey is evil, think carefully.  Wolfkey may have been trying to protect someone ELSE from inspects, I finally revealed I inspected a not-their partner, then maybe partner+Wolfkey decided I was too sus of Wolfkey, better make CM look sus to help hide the partner and confuse.  Could be CM connection still, but I'm not surprised if Wolfkey intended to protect someone ELSE then flipped to look like protecting CM to hide real partner and maybe slip past looking sus.

IF we elim Mater D3, we likely 'free' both Oliverz and Max from a type of trap.  I currently weakly lean town on both Max and Mater, and am going 'wtf explain more' towards Oliverz.  I'm concerned how Mater may be used by evil even if good (or different evil) in the coming cycles, hope Mater plays really careful.

Mater is maybe distanced from AP?  I kinda think Mater would choose not to allow that to be noticable if actually partnered evil with AP.

We seem to have a hefty load of power among town and possible town.  We could have massive icebergs of power under the surface, maybe titanic battles between warring anti-town factions; we know of 2 eaten NK, but maybe there were more that didn't get discussed; some anti-town defender may not think it helps them to mention they did or might have stopped 1+ kills too or whatever.

Whatever evil's got, it should be a balance to what good's got; and good's got some nice stuff so.... yeah I am not that reassured that this game isn't very hard.

But I can use what everyone says, at least, to help try to guide my next actions.

yeah on one hand i think about doing so, on the other hand i sometimes feel like i just flood the thread with one lined responses, especially since that seems not to be seen so often here on bay12 =)
Yeah i agree, thinking about scummy people is ok, just not lynching 4mask would have been a misstake im so happy first death already a headshot!!

also what do you mean "wtf explain more"?? i am always answering all questions, trying to be helpful


i think im gonna post this

[Maximum Spin]

Now that we know 4maskwolf's alignment, Magma I really want to hear a detailed 'identify the goals and strategies' that 4mask used in 4mask's posts, both D1 and D2.  What you can see and see fit to say.  After you post it, I want to see Max do the same task, please (Max, prep it at any time, I just really would like to see Magma's entire doing of this task before you provide your evaluation).

Fair warning that I don't consider this one of my strengths because I'm a highly intuitively-based player and what I see may not make sense to anyone else.

Also, I don't believe hector was trying to be rude to you. His referring to the players as clowns and losers was probably just joke hostility, and I think he only wanted to be honest in saying that he has a hard time reading your posts. Like me, he has a cultural aversion to "politely" talking around an issue. I think you could come to accord with a little effort on both sides (and then we wouldn't need another replacement).

[TricMagic]

Of note, if you plan to investigate me/max, would suggest Max. Sure I could be an SK, but my whole thing on giving that to Max was a gamble.
Either or is fine even if I think there are better targets.

[Maximum Spin]

Tric, that's so unnecessary suspicious, lol.
It's fine, though, anyone can investigate me all they want. But now people are gonna think I'm a godfather and go for you instead.

Anyway, I still think Fallacy is scum.

[TricMagic]

If only. Well, the info I give out is true. Free too which isn't great if I am mafia. But if that's the case I would just reverse the order and say the gift was free.

[Magma Mater]

Let's start with Oliverz since in my limited time to reread yesterday Oliverz posts were inflicting too much psychic damage and taking too long to parse to be worth reading. Also I'm voting there for mech reasons so might as well see if the play lines up.

Two reasons for making the ISO on Oliverz means he probably has an ulterior motive. In this case, I think he's trying to hide the fact that he made up his mind beforehand to write a hard bus on his scumbuddy.
The rest of the post is definitely worth reading, he makes some excellent points which are probably written from the perspective of someone who already knows the guy he's speaking about is scum.

The rest of 4mask's posts are a crapshoot. Day one he was mostly concerned with me (whom I already knew was town, but you can read our exchanges if you somehow still have doubts), while day three he didn't post anything before the redcheck reveal, and I'm pretty sure he was just trying to look town with everything other than the Oliverz push.

Okay lunchtime over I read up to about page 13.

Short version.

Fallacy is fine.

Vermillion is fine for now.

AP and the wrong Wolf both scream “newbie”, or at least coming from an insular community with an unusual playstyle, so they are going to be a nightmare for me to solve. If I had to pick one to shoot it would probably be Wolf because while AP’s read list is nonsense it’s at least something. If this were a game with ITAs I’d happily toss these two on a shotlist and never look back.

Juice I felt underwhelmed by but just made a big post I have to read. Will reevaluate after but my initial thoughts are “could be a wolf”.

The way Oliverz writes inflicts psychic damage on me so I’ll have to reread later to get an opinion.

CM is basically fin, I still think their initial posts aren’t wolfy.

Max has mastered the art of saying little while posting. While his post on Fallacy was hilarious there’s nothing there that screams “town” to me.

This is his readslist from d1. Specifically no read on Oliverz is suspicious, but I could be getting confirmation-biased I suppose.

Normally I'd relegate that to the back of my mind since Vermillion has otherwise been townie but after CM got essentially blocked once and actually blocked another time I'm genuinely starting to wonder if that claims isn't just cover for a doubly-blocked (and essentially outed) wolf.

CM's action priority also makes zero sense. She claims she tried to steal actions from Magma (who she has consistently had as "annoying, but null/not a wolf") and Oliverz (who I'm genuinely not sure she mentioned D1 and only went after after her actions supposedly failed). Rather than the only person she said she had a scumlean on D1, AnimePigeon. You know, the sensible, obvious person to target if you think they're the wolfiest in the game since you deny the wolves abilities.

This is trash, Crystalizedmire is almost certainly town.

Okay sorry I probably won't be able to finish this because my roommate got home so it's social time. The short version is the AP could be a wolf, isn't a wolf with Oliverz if Vermillion is telling the truth (and decent odds of a difference check), if Vermillion is lying then AP could be the third wolf in a Vermillion/CM team. Whether or not that slot is an arsonist who the fuck knows.

If AnimePigeon were mafia with 4mask, this post would probably have a) been finished, and b) been done earlier in the day.

I guess his ISO isn't a crapshoot, there's some decent stuff. I have:
Anti-pairing tells with Fallacy, Crystalizedmire, AnimePigeon (ToonyMan?), Imp, TricMagic, Magma Mater (lol). I hate to say it but Max might not be paired with 4mask either.
Pairing tells with Oliverz, possibly juicebox but I don't really want to get into that now.
Nothing for Vermilion, Wolfkey as far as I can tell.

[Magma Mater]

I kind of hate it when my reads are contradicted by the information in the thread. Anyone else?

Oliverz
This one is fine though.

[Elephant Parade]

Votecount
- Crystalizedmire: (0)
- FallacyofUrist: (0)
+ hector13: Imp (1)
- Imp: (0)
- juicebox: (0)
- Magma Mater: (0)
- Maximum Spin: (0)
+ Oliverz144: Magma Mater (1)
- TricMagic: (0)
- VermilionSkies: (0)
- Wolfkey: (0)

- No Lynch: (0)

Not Voting: Crystalizedmire, FallacyofUrist, hector13, juicebox, Maximum Spin, Oliverz144, TricMagic, VermilionSkies, Wolfkey (9)

With 11 votes in play, it’s 6 to hammer.

Day 4 will end Friday at 9:00 PM PST (about 2 days and 11.5 hours from now).

[TricMagic]

Oliverz stand for testimony. Who do you believe to be scum and why?

[Elephant Parade]

ToonyMan has replaced hector13.


Votecount
- Crystalizedmire: (0)
- FallacyofUrist: (0)
- Imp: (0)
- juicebox: (0)
- Magma Mater: (0)
- Maximum Spin: (0)
+ Oliverz144: Magma Mater, TricMagic (2)
- ToonyMan: Imp (1)
- TricMagic: (0)
- VermilionSkies: (0)
- Wolfkey: (0)

- No Lynch: (0)

Not Voting: Crystalizedmire, FallacyofUrist, juicebox, Maximum Spin, Oliverz144, ToonyMan, VermilionSkies, Wolfkey (9)

With 11 votes in play, it’s 6 to hammer.

Day 4 will end Friday at 9:00 PM PST (about 2 days and 11.5 hours from now).

[ToonyMan]

I am now the former Hector who was previously known as AnimePigeon.

I am town.

I haven't read almost any of the thread and would like somebody who isn't Imp to help me understand the situation. It seems good for town right now, yes?

My observations (To be honest I made these before Elephant Parade subbed me in):

1. I understand that 4mask was lynched and was mafia.
2. I think trusting Max is generally a poor idea.
3. TricMagic is probably not mafia.

I like Magma Mater here as they feel like a voice of reason, that's my impression.

[ToonyMan]

I'm willing to agree Fallacy is scum if Max is town. It's probably the other way around though if one is mafia.

Imp getting Hector to quit is really funny to me. I think they're town at least.

I have no opinion about Crystal, juicebox, Oliverz, Vermilion, or Wolfkey.

[VermilionSkies]

General summary of what's happened so far, from what I've gathered:
Day 2 was skipped, so we had two nights in a row. Shamelessly stealing from an earlier list of nightclaims;

N1, Wolfkey masquerades/busses Magma Mater and Crystalizedmire.  Juicebox targets CM, so instead gets results from MM.  MM targets Oliverz, so that's what JB sees, thinking it's CM's target.  CM targeted MM, would that force CM to target self thus fail to steal any ability?

N2, Wolfkey roleblocks CM.  CM targets Oliverz, but is roleblocked, again getting some kind of failure to steal.

If I understand right, CM and TM may have completely been honest about the results each reported regarding this.  None of the claims seems anti-town to me, any of it could be, but this can all be fine.  I've seen town CM steal from reasonable targets; I've been town and stolen from targets I knew were town (I had a robin-hood-like ability and could give stuff really well too, but still, I am aware it can be townie to be able to steal and to actually steal, even from known town).  Additionally, Wolfkey's choices are odd but not necessarily horrible.  Wolfkey, would you tell us why you picked these targets?

TricMagic N1 gives a kill-everyone or 'mafia instantly wins!' or something to Max, and is horrified Max talks about it (odd, Max doesn't talk about the extortion though); also N1 checks FoU and gets [redacted by mod] if I understand right (This is actually posted in thread and not mod-redacted by mod, there's some confusion there and could be real or fake.  I choose to honor it as possible mod redaction and I'll play as if I don't have this info).  N2 checks an ability Wolfkey has, gets masquerade.  This seems like TricMagic, probably not maf TM, maybe most likely town TM (even as town TM is always an honorary serial killer and we honor the TM indeed!  Me myself and I, plus any other that can be counted as 'we'!)

4maskwolf did mod-knows-what N1 and N2, we have no claim except 4mask did get a new ability; Imp got a red mafia inspect result on 'uncounted' 4maskwolf.  4mask, I am totally still listening to you if you talk more.  I tried to wait as long as I thought certain to be pro-town before I stopped trying to gather new info and announced, but I'm still trying to gather more info.

Imp runs around like Sandy Claws on N1 and N2, giving gifts and checking if people are on the naughty or nice list, 4maskwolf N1 seems naughty and Vermilion N2 seems nice.  No comment redacted by Imp/Sandy Claws about anything else going on, but it's all towny and best intentioned - feel free to recheck whenever in case of conversion or other doubt.

Vermilion did a guardian thing on Imp N1 and N2, may have done other stuff; Imp got a 'counted' town inspect on Vermilion.  Seems very townie to me here; I almost didn't inspect here but I already had a red, was alive and glad, and Vermilion had kinda made himself very close to me, why not check since we can only handle so many anti-town found at once and if Vermilion is anti-town really do want to know.

AnimePigeon has an ability that tells people they were targeted to hear a joke and they laugh.  This unlocks something for AP at some point, I hope it's not a happy death for all the people who laughed.  AP targeted Imp and Juicebox.  These are the kinda targets, I think, one picks when one wants to land likely town; interesting that Vermilion wasn't chosen (but by N2, AP was in a chat with Vermilion, maybe that affected target decision).  JB said slight scumlean on AP.  I had said 'if stays quiet, end AP' and noted that he'd played with me when I'm evil more than anyone here, but had rarely seen me good.

Fairly good overall for town, as we didn't have any nightkills from the two consecutive night phases.
Fallacy is attempting to personally tie a noose around Max's neck, which... may or may not be justified? Fallacy has some suspiciously non-town mech, but most of us do. Tric apparently gave Max something that would doom us all if they were mafia, which would make Max seem town, but also that requires you trust Tric.
Magma honestly has been incredibly good for town this game, but it does feel like they're going to crawl out of my computer screen and personally shank me if I misplay.
Oliver's just around. Might be scum, less inclined to say that they're town considering some of their previous posts but it's not out of the question.
Imp is essentially confirmed as town, and they're responsible for both the investigation that outed 4mask and for confirmed me as town.
CM and Juice genuinely just, don't exist. They've posted things, but said posts had so little flavor I can't form a good read.
I forgot Wolfkey existed until I checked the vote, if that says anything.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that there's two main options today - crack open somebody like Oliver or CM and see what comes out, or start sorting through whatever the hell is happening between Fallacy and Max.

Anyways, Tric, if you were looking for abilities that started with S, my dead person results tracker starts with an S.

[ToonyMan]

I see, Imp is a cop again with a doctor (Vermilion) protecting them... again.

Given past history this makes me want to believe that Imp and Vermilion are most likely town. Especially because 4mask was mafia.

I wonder how Imp will selfishly get themselves killed this time.

Hector probably did this already, but I can confirm AnimePigeon did target Imp and juicebox.

[juicebox]

Okay here's the Rundown:
D1:
- Imp claims fruit vendor and asks people to target them
- Half the town is focused on Magma Mater
- Fallacy begins his crusade against Max
- No one has any real leads at the end of D1, so the decision is made not to lynch

N1:
- Max uses an ability to skip D2
- I track CM but get bussed to MM, I see them visit Oliverz
- CM attempts to steal an ability from MM but gets bussed to themself
- MM uses their ability on Oliverz
- Wolfkey busses CM and MM
- Tric gives Max an ability that he says would win the game for scum
- Fallacy claims he is unable to act due to a lack of deaths
- Imp gives 4mask an ability and checks their alignment, they come up as scum
- VermilionSkies uses a bodyguard-like ability on Imp, and eats the NK
- Oliverz targeted Imp with an ability N1, but didn't say what kind, only that it gave them a result and allowed them to evolve
-4mask never claimed their N1 action

N2:
- I tracked AP and saw them visit me
- Wolfkey roleblocked CM
- CM attempted to steal from Oliverz but failed due to the roleblock
- MM attempted to extort an ability from Max
- 4mask claimed to have tracked me to AP
- Tric learns one of Wolfkey's abilities and learns about his business
- Imp gives an ability to VermilionSkies and check their alignment. They show as town
- VermilionSkies uses their bg ability on Imp again, and eats the NK again
- Max, Fallacy, and Oliverz all claim that they didn't act N2

D2:
- People claim their night actions
- Eventually Imp claims their inspect result on 4mask
- 4mask claims miller in response
- Wagon starts forming on 4mask
- Fallacy's D2 is best described by this post
- Imp is worried that AP may be an arsonist
- 4mask gets lynched, they flip maf

That's the gist of what's happened, someone let me know if I've left out something important