Let me quickly run down our action economy here.
So, first of all, we need at least three meat-curing actions this turn to feed everyone, since each one will apparently cure three units (one bag worth). We currently only have two, so we'll need another. Now, two people working together can dig out three buildings - 1) knap, knap, dig; 2) knap, dig, dig. Still, even with that, we currently have a need for nine buildings: seven homes and two storages. That plus curing three bags of meat would take up everyone's actions, and we haven't even accounted for water, for which we need another action, so we're going to have to compromise. We can't do everything this turn, no matter what.
To break even over the long term, we need an average of 2⅓ cooking and water-gathering actions per turn, and, at a 33% success rate, 5¼ hunting actions. Plus at least three fuel-gathering actions, if we don't even build any more campfires. Luckily, our current excess of water and raw meat mean that we only need one water-gathering action and three hunting actions this turn to most likely survive to the next. (Although, if you don't mind a suggestion, we'd be more likely to survive if each hunting action produced one raw meat and ⅓ chance of a second, plus ⅓ chance of leather, which would have the same effect on average while eliminating the possibility that everyone completely fails and we all starve... as it is, spending three actions on hunting still has almost a 30% chance of complete failure. Even if you don't want to guarantee success, it's possible to choose a different probability spread that produces the same overall average while the failure chance drops faster as we add hunters... with a ⅔ chance of failure, we have to have six hunting actions just to get the chance of total failure under 10%.)
So needing one water-gatherer, three hunters, and three cooking actions minimum, that means one third of our 21 actions are spent already. On top of that, we have nine buildings to build, a fourth cooking action to do, and three to cure the leather. One player could build a second campfire, cook on it, and then cure a unit of leather; this would force us to spend six actions hunting for fuel from then on, though. Otherwise, we could do three cooking actions on our campfire today, getting nine food, then two cooking actions (leaving us with eight cooked food including the two extra from today) and one leather-curing action tomorrow, and generally try to keep our stockpiles from getting out of hand so we can cook everything just in time before it rots. We'd then have to choose whether to build another campfire to cure two more units of leather tomorrow.
I don't know exactly how imminently we need those storage caves, but if we assume we at least need the housing before the flood comes, we have three turns to get seven buildings, so we should aim to use five actions toward that each turn. We probably need the storages around the same time, so six. That's including both knapping and digging. We have enough stones for now to make all nine caves plus a workshop, so there's no pressing need to collect more.
It might be a good idea to have more than just three people hunt, to be sure we get enough. It seems one success awards four meat and one leather, at least on average, so we probably only need one, but, like I said, the chance of three failures is still pretty high. Still, it would suck to end up with more than we can store.
All told, we have two players (six actions) who haven't posted yet, and we need one cooking action, two hunting actions, and one water-collecting action. It wouldn't be a bad idea to build another campfire and use it to cure food and leather, as well as spend some actions collecting fuel so that we have enough to keep running both. In order to do all that, some actions are going to have to be changed, though. I don't think gathering rocks or building a workshop are very pressing right now, and we could afford to drop one of the excavations until next turn too.
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Topic: The Survival of The Shellfolk | For the Lauv of God (Read 8475 times)