* * * D1 * * *
This is Snowkiller's first game and their join post suggests they're planning to lurk; I am probably fucked. Best thing I can do is move things along quickly enough that they don't get lynched for inactivity/being a newb/both. Ideally, I want to catch scum so the game ends faster (assuming Snowkiller isn't scum themselves), but really the important thing is to end the day with a more compelling target than the null read who has a 2/8 chance of being scum.
I don't know why Hector is pushing my wagon so hard. At first I thought it was a goofy RVS thing, but I was less sure when half of his RVS questions were also about me. And why does he want to go back to RVS? Could he be scum trying to stagnify the game state? Probably not; there are as many philosophies of play as there are players, and he's played much, much more than I have. Still, I'd FoS him if I wasn't worried it'd come across as an OMGUS.
Longshot D2 strategy assuming a non-Snowkiller, non-mafia player is eliminated today: fakeclaim investigator with a guilty result on another guilty player; they get lynched, I get lynched, and the game ends in a mafia victory, meaning Snowkiller either wins or is endgamed. I'm not sure I could fakeclaim well enough to pull it off, but it might be worth doing if people start eying my protectee.
If Snowkiller is modkilled for inactivity I will scream
Crystallizedmire is walking into a lynch and, going by the games I've read, TricMagic might not be too far behind; this could be salvageable.
Caz has dropped nothing but one-liners, and her first was very strange: Crystallizedmire's post marked them as an obvious newb, but how was it any lazier than a couple of RVS questions? Her Toony case is a low-hanging fruit too. Not quite suspicious enough to push her for, though.
OK, after Snowkiller's post it's looking like a D1 Crystallizedmire lynch unless something weird happens
Going to slow down a bit; I don't want to choke out discussion (yet)
Really hope I don't take the bullet tonight; I don't want to lose the ability to steer the conversation away from Snowkiller
Oh, I just realized: I can auto-win at LYLO by self-voting. That's cool, but it also makes me a good lynch candidate if someone figures out my role.
Aside from Caz, only MS seems sus; all they've done is joke around. Of course, the game started two hours ago. Reads:
Town? Hector
Sus Caz, MS
Null Snowkiller, Crystallizedmire, ToonyMan
Silent Tric, sofanthiel
It's improbable but not impossible that two of the three people to have posted content would be mafia.
OK, going to chill out until the MIA players post. If Caz and MS don't post something of substance, I'll most likely vote one and FoS the other. But what if someone replies by pointing out Snowkiller hasn't either? "I overlooked them because they haven't posted much at all"—valid but not especially convincing.
With this many lurkers, town is probably screwed
Is Hector adding more weight to a lurker prod or just bandwagoning? Possible hector/CM? Quite likely if CM is scum
Fake detective ploy probably won't work since I was so cavalier with my life at the start—could say I was just playing the hand I was dealt, but is that plausible? Probably not
Definitely a two-scum game because otherwise town would lose if me, Snowkiller, and all three scum lived to tomorrow
I might've played differently if I'd known Snowkiller wouldn't be even the second most offensive lurker in this game
Haven't gotten a read on Toonyman or sofanthiel yet. Finding TricMagic unreadable (is he scum or does he just not give a shit?); ditto for Crystalizedmire (is he scum or just struggling to learn the game?).
Crystalizedmire's hilarious OMGUS of TM makes me lean more toward town for them. A partner would probably be guiding them more if they had one.
Crystalizedmire -> TricMagic or vice versa seems likely.
God I hope Snowkiller is scum
If scum is two vets, town has already lost
Being lynched N1 would be very bad even if Snowkiller isn't a high-priority lynch or NK target
Unsure what MS's angle is here; weird scumhunting tactic or scummy WIFOM generator?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
On second thought, I hope Snowkiller isn't scum; if they are, I don't see them living through the game.
I should really be spending more time trying to figure out Snowkiller's alignment so I know which direction to push the game in, but they've given me absolutely nothing to go off of.
If there's a town vig, they're likely shooting Snowkiller tonight. On the other hand, Snowkiller is an extremely likely lynch tomorrow—and therefore an unlikely nightkill. Unsure which ability to use.
For the love of God, Snowkiller, stop lurking
Feeling better about Caz after her second reply; I really didn't like how she snuck through the start of D1 without anyone saying much of anything to her, but that might've been a genuine timezone issue/coincidence and not the product of some nefarious strategy. MaximumSpin is my new #1 suspect--I really don't like how they shifted from banter to mentoring to nothing--but sofanthiel is also looking bad. Lazy noob or wishy-washy scum?
Unsure where the sudden wave of ToonyMan sentiment is coming from, but I might be able to ride it to a town loss that leaves Snowkiller alive? Won't say anything about it for now.
Would rather sofanthiel wasn't lynched today -- they're taking some heat off Snowkiller's lurking, and I find them way less sus than MS
Would a scum lynch tonight make people more or less likely to go for the Snowkiller lurker lynch tomorrow? My gut says less, but it might not have digested the meta yet. Oh, and that's assuming SK is town--if they're the second scum, then they'll 100% be pushed tomorrow. There's a 3/4 chance they aren't, though. I think I'll use my kill protect if scum is lynched. Going to go through the Supernatural archives and see how many games had vigs.
Unsure if sofanthiel is scummy or just skimming the thread. The way they're ignoring my questions is absolutely bizarre and I honestly don't know what benefit scum would get out of it—more time to think?
Really hope I'm not nightkilled tonight; when I flip, it'll be pretty obvious that my charge is Snowkiller, and that'll put him in the spotlight. God willing, the mafia will go after one of the vets.
Just realized: while I really do think MS is scum, he's also one of the people pushing Snowkiller. That's another reason to take him out of the picture.
Might be risky to essentially crop Snowkiller out of my reply to Hector, but if challenged I can say that I wasn't asking about him in the first place. Town or scum, Hector needs to go—hopefully the mafia take care of him tonight.
From a certain perspective, scum!ToonyMan makes sense: he's pushing to keep the most useless players in the game based almost entirely on gut reads. But I also want to keep those players in the game, so I'm not going to comment on this.
MAXIMUMSPIN I WILL END YOU. God I wish GAs could kill. I'd even take a suicide bomb right now.
Don't want to make my first comment on Snowkiller a proactive defense of him, so I won't be commenting yet. If more people push, I'll point out that he's a self-described D1 passive player and nonlyncher. Or will doing it late be even more suspicious? Hmm...
Really unfortunate that I won't be around for the lynch since this looks to be a nailbiter--for me especially with MS's new push.
If sofianthel flips scum I am 100% vote-protecting Snowkiller, Hunters be damned.
This Snowkiller post feels really bad but I don't think I have another option
I guess I should be happy I'm not sofanthiel's GA
Sofanthiel is a pretty bad lynch for me, especially if they flip scum. Would really like MS but I don't think that's happening; nobody else seems interested.
If it's actually sofanthiel/Snowkiller, they are completely fucked, and I with them. I don't think it is, though. Too many of the vets are playing weird for that.
Increasingly leaning toward scum!TM over insightful townie!TM, though the other vets are more suspicious
Toony/Sofanthiel??? Big if true
Ugh, D2 is shaping up to be irrelevant; not much I can do to save Snowkiller from a last-minute lynch when I -- and, in all likelihood, he -- won't be around for it. I'll reiterate that Snowkiller is a bad pick before I go, I guess. I'd do more but I think it'd just guarantee his lynch.
SNOWKILLER, YOU'RE ONLINE. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, PLEASE POST. I'D CALL YOU OUT BUT IT'D ONLY DRAW MORE ATTENTION TO YOU AND I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF YOU'RE READING THE THREAD
I guess I could try hypertunneling someone in hopes of getting myself or them (almost certainly the former) lynched, but I have an even slimmer hope of that working than of Snowkiller coming back. Besides, Snowkiller would be back on the docket tomorrow.
Snowkiller is offline again. Ugh
SNOWKILLERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
snowkiller PLEASE
https://i.imgur.com/dTtMzMf.pngI don't know what I expected
Meph must be laughing at me from Hell
I cannot think of a single productive way to play this post. I guess I could literally just tell Snowkiller that people are going to lynch him if he doesn't do something.
Half-tempted to ask Meph if it's OK to pretend to play against my wincon. I could go, "ugh, I don't even care anymore, I hate being scum partners with a newbie", self-vote, and possibly drag things out another day (assuming nobody reaches the obvious and correct conclusion that I'm SK's GA). I don't really want to do that though
What if I self-voted with no explanation? Would people take the bait? Probably not
I guess I should start playing as stupidly as possible so I get lynched instead of SK?
?? Won't help him D2 though, and for all the talk of a SK lynch, people still have their votes parked on sofanthiel... And frankly, I almost value my dignity more than my wincon at this point. Maybe if people actually switch their votes before I leave
I love the game of mafia. I love the game of mafia. I love the game of mafia. I love the game of mafia. I love the game of mafia.
This post may make it painfully obvious that I'm Snowkiller's GA but so be it. Maybe that'll make people not vote him because it'll bring scum closer to a majority... assuming they don't realize that GAs are incentivized to side with scum.
THANK YOU CAZ. LET'S GO MAXIMUMSPIN. If Toony comes back we might actually make this
Sofanthiel's latest post has me convinced. MaximumSpin/Hector good cop/bad cop scumteam?
Slipped up earlier and said I "still thought Snowkiller was town" when I've previously only called them a null read.
---
Whew. OK, let's think about things:
1. Who's scum?
2. What should be my night strategy for tonight?
3. What should be my day strategy for tomorrow?
- 1 -
It's probably Hector, Tric, or Sofanthiel
* Hector's back-and-forth with MS was weird and their play devolved over the course of the day. I give them no points for voting MS at the end because Toony said they were going to anyway. I also don't give them points for their willingness to sacrifice themselves because, y'know, they never actually did.
* Tric's posting seemed especially nonsensical and they kept tag-teaming me with MS, who was scum. Could they have been pocketed? Doubtful but possible. Toony said this felt like town!Tric but MS, who is familiar with Tric's meta, could've been coaching them to act like it. Their hyperfocus on me is extra suspicious because I spent the whole day as MS's foremost critic. I think it's Tric.
Less likely candidates:
* Sofanthiel's case against Hector is almost TOO good relative to their earlier play. What if MS fed it to them? MS was also really reluctant to swap to them, though it's possible that MS simply preferred a lynchee who (1) wouldn't engage with him at all and (2) would provide essentially no information. With that in mind, I'm leaning against
* Now that a Hector/CM team is all but ruled out, I really have no idea what's going on with the two of them. My best guess is that Hector agrees CM is noise and is empowering them for that very reason. If CM is scum and Hector is town, their dynamic makes no sense at all. Leaning town!CM barring insane third party shit (lmfao if Hector is another GA)
* I really don't see MS/Kaz here. If Kaz hadn't joined my crusade, MS never would've made it to the noose, I guarantee it. Also, I don't see anything objectionable about their last 24 hours' worth of posts.
* MS/Toony is only slightly more plausible, though Toony also gets no points for MS's death on account of never actually voting
* If it's Snowkiller then I am completely fucked, no way does solo scum Snowkiller make it through this even if I mash the Vote-Protect button as hard as my dainty little angel fingers can. Not worth considering
* A three-man scumteam would make pretty much anyone except Kaz plausible, but that would be kind of insane in a nine-player game
- 2 -
Is Snowkiller more likely to be nightkilled tonight or lynched tomorrow?
Possible nightkill sources:
1. Scum kill: He is probably the most useless player in the game. I don't see why MS's partner would nightkill him... unless they somehow figured out that we're a two-for-one-deal. That feels plausible inside my head, but how plausible is it
objectively? Guardian Angel is such a weird role that it can't possibly have been in anyone's head at the start of the game (it isn't even in the list of roles in the OP!). But if we assume MS's partner is a vet and therefore dimly aware of the role, could my actions have
put it in their head? I all but threw myself in front of the bullet at the end there. --No, this is too much of a leap in logic.
2. Vig kill: Plausible, but not as certain as it looked this morning. He's pretty useless but Hector and Tric are much shadier. MS's push on him makes him look good but not THAT good. Looking at past games, there seems to be an average of about half a Hunter per Supernatural. Meh.
3. Weird power stuff: Werebears &c. Not very likely but can't be ruled out
As for being lynched: Difficult to tell. His play was horrible and MS didn't push him hard enough for him to be a hard townread, but multiple players are way more suspicious. Unfortunately, I most likely won't be around to force the conversation away from lurkers at any cost (see below), so it's hard to tell how things will go.
Intuitively, nightkills are harder to predict than lynches because scum can pick weird targets just to fuck with people, vigs can shoot on a hunch, and werebears can be werebears. Ugh.
There's no 100% safe option here.
- 3 -
It doesn't really matter because I'm going to be killed tonight anyway. After dogging MS all day yesterday and being dogged in turn, I'm the best-looking player in the game right now. How could I survive?
1. Scum is incompetent and picks someone else for no reason
2. Scum thinks leaving me alive will generate WIFOM (how?)
3. I'm actually NOT the most attractive NK target for some reason I'm not thinking of
4. Scum kills someone else because I'm high-profile and likely to be protected if a protector exists
5. Scum attempts to kill me but a protector exists and I am protected
6. A jailor etc. correctly identifies and blocks scum
Dying as a GA REALLY sucks, especially given that my charge is Snowkiller, but if I played the day any differently Snowkiller probably would've just been lynched. Tough hand!
OK, let's say I don't die. What now? Obviously, my two goals are (1) to lynch someone other than Snowkiller, and (2) to lynch scum. These are almost certainly the same goal and with things as they are, #1 is more or less a freebie—Hector and Tric are way more sus and the person most enthusiastic about lynching Snowkiller was, uh, MS. The game would really have to stagnate for (a town) Snowkiller to be the most attractive lynch target. I won't let that happen, nor will whichever of ToonyMan, Hector, and Kaz is both town and alive (almost certainly 1/3, likely 2/3).
I have two theories going into the start of the day: (1) Hector and MS were doing a weird good cop/bad cop routine. (2) MS coached TricMagic into faking his town meta, which is apparently the only way anyone knows how to tell if he's scum or not. That's what I'm going to focus on.
- 2: REVENGEANCE -
If I'm dead, town COULD lynch Snowkiller because he's useless and town can spare the day. I don't find that very likely, but it's possible. But if they do and the vote fails, town may lynch him the next day (though 'useless unreadable newbie' seems an unattractive lynch target at LYLO). Also, if town lynches someone else that day and they come up town (very likely), Snowkiller will be on the docket the next day.
If I live, the nightkill block is clearly the right move because I can probably stop Snowkiller from being lynched tomorrow. If I die, the nightkill block is probably the right move because Snowkiller's lynch is no more likely to happen tomorrow than any other day. I could see the vote block being the right answer if Snowkiller is scum because it'll fuck over town.
Leaning strongly toward the nightkill block right now, but I'm going to give it another hour. Night actions are absolutely agonizing as a GA because you have your wincon in your hands but one of your hands has an explosive device taped to it and you don't know which.
It's also likely that Snowkiller will be neither NKed nor lynched and this decision won't matter at all. OK. Going with the NK block.
Scum * 2 + Scum GA * 1 is a terrifying possibility that I must ignore for the sake of my own sanity
OK. From where I'm standing, we're looking at MaximumSpin/TricMagic or MaximumSpin/Hector, or MaximumSpin/TricMagic?/Hector? if it's a team of three.
I would like to lynch TricMagic today and Hector tomorrow. I think TricMagic is more likely to be scum than Hector and Hector will be more useful to town.
On second thought, I think TM might be scum if we're dealing with a team of three; they vouched for both MS and Tric. If Tric flips scum, Hector flips town, and the game doesn't end, ToonyMan looks really bad.
If I die, my flip might make people question my reads despite them being 99.9% sincere. But I think my charge will be very obvious; hopefully my strategy will follow from that.
---
Holy shit I'm not dead
Hector/CM looking more likely
Don't really want to claim my action since it'll make my role obvious
Fuck me is Snowkiller actually scum
ToonyMan didn't say anything about my caginess so he probably guessed what's going on. Feel a bit better about him being town now
Unsure if declaring my protect was wise
Banking on Snowkiller not being scum because he's dead if so. Unless this is a three-scum game, but three scum and a GA in a nine-player game seems unlikely
i hate you snowkiller
really wish mafia had just killed me to get it over with
what if they actually did figure it out and hit snowkiller lmfao
SNOWKILLERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
SNOWKILLERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Yeah, Snowkiller is probably scum since Hector and Toony didn't seem to get that I was a GA (which was unlikely in the first place), that was the only possible reason to target him, and he'd be a weird target even so since the GA has a protect. I guess Toony could've shot Hector or something
Really should've gone with the vote protect but I don't think it'd have done more than drag things out for a day
I could fakeclaim a vote-protect on Snowkiller but that'd only work IF HE'D STOP SELF-VOTING
(also I already claimed a protect when I had no reason to lie about it)
they aren't going to fall for this but it'll be really funny if they do
can I post mucho texto yoda again or is there a cooldown
is... is this MS/TricMagic/snowkiller or has Tric simply not caught up with the thread
WHY
WOULD
A
TOWNIE
PRETEND
TO
BE
MAFIA
?
fuck you snowkiller
for the love of god town don't throw this
i hope i get revived as a demon
if it's a ms/tric/toonyman vet cabal all confirming each other's metas I will scream (toony could've shot hector)
guessing hector !none'd but who knows
Author
Topic: Supernatural Mafia 11 - Game over! Town victory (Read 16773 times)