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[EuchreJack]

This article details President Biden's explanations regarding the withdrawal of US Troops from Afghanistan.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/06/politics/pentagon-review-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/index.html

[Duuvian]

My take is that it was mostly Trump's fault, but the Biden admin, having been handed a flaming bag, blew it by ignoring fairly obvious signs of impending disaster that required action that may have been politically unpopular in either of two possible responses. If they did a troop surge it would have been hammered by anti-war (and also the Doha Treaty that Trump signed IIRC), while pulling out would have opened them up to criticism and blame for losing the war. Hoiping it would go away was perhaps the worse choice; however an important thing to remember is that the choice not taken will never be revealed for how good or bad it was.

I also am irritated that Afghan defense forces shared in the blame deflection. Those people shed massive amounts of blood for you.

[Frumple]

Those people shed massive amounts of blood for you.

They also had massive, massive problems. The forces we were propping up over there were so sodding bad popular support was shifting towards the bloody taliban by the time we started to withdraw, due to corruption and incompetence on a scale they were somehow making those shits look good in comparison -- and then, despite everything that was done and spent in support of it, those defense forces basically folded like a house of cards. There's blame to be shared, however much blood was shed.

... though the vast, vast majority of the blame is on the US, mind. We should have never occupied the place to begin with, nevermind persistently fucking up the decades afterwards.

[nenjin]

Enslaving children by the Afghan Defense commanders didn't do anything to help their popularity with the public.

[jipehog]

what is the geopolitical situation in Afghanistan today?

[EuchreJack]

what is the geopolitical situation in Afghanistan today?

Nobody cares

[jipehog]

The situation after US withdrawal from Afghanistan could shed light on the outcome of USA longest war, to me it is far more interesting than any petty blame game over tactical moves therein. Also USA just had a 20year anniversary of its Iraq invasion which gives us more latitude to answer the same question for Iraq.

[Duuvian]

Those people shed massive amounts of blood for you.

They also had massive, massive problems. The forces we were propping up over there were so sodding bad popular support was shifting towards the bloody taliban by the time we started to withdraw, due to corruption and incompetence on a scale they were somehow making those shits look good in comparison -- and then, despite everything that was done and spent in support of it, those defense forces basically folded like a house of cards. There's blame to be shared, however much blood was shed.

... though the vast, vast majority of the blame is on the US, mind. We should have never occupied the place to begin with, nevermind persistently fucking up the decades afterwards.

I have no argument with this. I wasn't trying to say there was no culpability whatsoever, and I should have said as much. However when things such as failing to train indiginous maintenence crews in favor of US contractors (who were withdrawn) to use a specific example, contribute in conjunction with local corruption it led to a collapse, in addition to what amounts to officialized banditry in some parts of the defense and police forces. This is on top of the neglection of economic conditions in the country, and I think that all of these were detriments of the overall strategy. However I think such application of the term of banditry should be narrowly applied to it's perpetrators rather than across the whole of the force.

what is the geopolitical situation in Afghanistan today?

Nobody cares

Hah! Sounds like keep digging the pit now trapped in. Sorry EJ, but I disagree. The Taliban leadership has neglected hopes for moderation. Perhaps that could change one day, but for now it appears the same old people are in charge. There for instance have already been problems across borders for example, notably in Pakistan, that could contribute to destabilization. That's no good for anyone in the region.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-april-5-2023

Spoiler: Resized image (click to show/hide)

What to do about it? That's well beyond my pay grade of 0$ as well as my capabilities to determine. No doubt I will find a way to be displeased regardless of the action or lack thereof, to be fair, as there is likely no simple way out short of genuine rapprochement that seems unlikely at this time in particular due to the rollback of girl's education and rights. I'd suggest rectifying problems made evident by the prosecution of this conflict, and focus more on non-military solutions (such as improving economic conditions and taking care to remove corruption to reduce if not prevent desperation and resentment and recruitment) with the caveat to watch out for and prepare for false dealing. That doesn't mean allow the people there to starve or go without medical care or suffer weather or climate related disasters without aid (another thing the Taliban leadership has contributed to by restricting female aid workers).

EDIT: Resized image, it was gigantic on this forums with a normal insert image. Thanks Criptfeind

[jipehog]

There for instance have already been problems across borders for example, notably in Pakistan, that could contribute to destabilization. That's no good for anyone in the region.
[..]
What to do about it? [..] I'd suggest rectifying problems made evident by the prosecution of this conflict, and focus more on non-military solutions (such as improving economic conditions and taking care to remove corruption to reduce if not prevent desperation and resentment and recruitment)

Who should do that?   Also to state the obvious USA isn't in the region.

[Duuvian]

The latter was more general advice rather than specific.

As to the US not being in the region, yeah geographically. There are still relations with countries in the region, at least for now.

[EuchreJack]

Well, it's nice to see someone actually still cares what happens in Afghanistan.

Personally, I think the US should never have gone there.  However, the seeds of progress from the US presence there will hopefully bear fruit in the future.

[hector13]

Doubtful. I think the Taliban’s goal was to basically wait for the US to leave, since there was no chance they were being taken out.

[Criptfeind]

Gigantic image, don't know the img code to shrink it, will fix at later date if I learn of it from a helpful person

You use the tags width and height to change the image width and heights, or just one and the aspect ratio is preserved.

Code: [Select]

[img width=600]https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Fig%207%2020230405%20SJ%20Asia%20Map.png[/img]
For example.

[Loud Whispers]

What surprises me is how despite the UK ostensibly pulling the majority of its forces way before the US decided to, it still failed to retrieve Afghans who served as interpreters for the UK when their lives were threatened by the Taliban. In a show of utter competence, the MOD said interpreters still in Afghanistan (and still alive) would be permitted to come to the UK if they asked the Taliban for approval first.

[Duuvian]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-april-19-2023

Spoiler: images from link (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

From article:
Global Movement. The Islamic State is strengthening and expanding globally. US operations targeting senior leaders in the Islamic State’s network temporarily disrupt the organization and its affiliates but fail to slow its expansion. The Islamic State is pursuing multiple military campaigns in Syria, where it takes advantage of poor counterinsurgency forces and rural sanctuary. The group is also strengthening in the Sahel, where it has effectively neutralized Malian army forces and al Qaeda–affiliated adversaries in northeastern Mali.[1] US Central Command assesses that the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan could conduct an attack targeting the West within six months, pointing to the inadequacy of US counterterrorism strategy in Afghanistan.[2]
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To leaderships: Might need to switch gears from poorly conceived internet regulation and culture war you goofs, otherwise somewhere else may be giving you a very busy summer and fall on top of Putin's war.