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[FallacyofUrist]

The problem with meta reads is that when people grow or atypical role situations occur, they can become inaccurate. Both apply here.

[Maximum Spin]

Max: for clarity, you think Tric is town, not 3p?

Yeah.
I wouldn't, like, be overly surprised if he's 3p, but, yes, I really do have him filed away mentally as "town". Were I a betting man, which I am not, I would bet a reasonably insignificant sum on his being town for purely symbolic reasons.

[Lenglon]

Max: Why?

[Lenglon]

oh, really quick:

Cat: You've stopped participating. Don't do that.

[Maximum Spin]

Max: Why?

A few reasons. Selected:

• "Third-party" wasn't an option in role selection, and I'm not totally convinced there even are any. I believe that, if it were an option, Tric might have picked it - he was very happy with his dragon win - but given that it wasn't, I strongly suspect he would submit 'town'. One of his theme words, which are a thing he absolutely has, is "honesty".
• Tric was very pleased with himself when he won by dragoning and kept everyone in the dark. If he were actually a third party with a win condition to collect hats, why would he make such a big deal out of it? He could just collect hats on his own recognizance. The fact that he cheerfully admitted to wanting to steal hats suggests that he regards it as town-beneficial.
• The flavor does not present the Hat Tyrant as an oppositional character. It almost seems to be helping moderate after web apparently dies. Instead, we are presented with three different versions of a win condition, none of which have to do with hats:

“Pick the most suspicious among you to be processed.”
“Pick the gnarliest dude among you to receive a free pizza!”
“Pick those responsible for this travesty and I will punish them.”

I don't have strong beliefs at this point about what these mean, but I think the lack of hats is worth listing.

• TricMagic is acting in every post like town TricMagic. I don't know how to elaborate on this without just vaguely gesturing at everything TricMagic has done and saying "You don't have to like it, but this is what town TricMagic looks like." And I already kind of did that.
• EuchreJack was the first one to theorize a hat-related victory condition, anyway, and EuchreJack's weird theories are always wrong. No, specifically, what I mean here is, if you think that Tric was claiming 3p, why didn't he actually claim 3p instead of just kind of awkwardly sitting halfway on? Someone else gave him the idea and, in town TricMagic fashion, he rolled with it.
  

I think that's all I can handle processing right now. Probably should go to bed.

[A_Curious_Cat]

oh, really quick:

Cat: You've stopped participating. Don't do that.

Well… I'm typing this reply for the third time.  First time was aborted due to what I think are problems caused by the web browser on my main computer and the fact that bay12 forums.com doesn’t use HTTPS, and also problems that I think are being caused by the touchpad (insertion point moving around randomly, text being deleted randomly, and text being highlighted randomly).  The second time was because the battery on my tablet ran out.  Hopefully this time will be better…

In any case, I just barely got caught up (which is a task as I’m actually a bit of a slow reader).  I’m currently leaning towards lynching FallacyofUrist.  He’s made enough posts and interacted with enough people that how he “flips” should be quite informative.  Of course, the same could be said about TricMagic, however I think (or at least hope; -I’d make investigating his alignment a top priority if I were a cop-) that he’s a town-allied 3rd party and that his powers would make him a great benefit to the town.

In any case, it’s way past my bedtime and I’d like to get some sleep.

FallacyofUrist, why should I vote someone other than you?  And why should that person be TricMagic (and not, say, Jim Groovester)?

TricMagic, what is your alignment (and how can we be sure)?

[Jim Groovester]

...
Jim: Do you mind presenting your full case for us? this is all I can find:

. . .

And then your most recent two posts.

The problem I have here is that your entire basis is that "FoU's argument is bad". You don't include what the actual problem with the argument IS.

Please, take the extra steps to build a foundation for your house. What is the core, base, central, problem with FoU's case that makes FoU scum for having it? Stop skipping this step please.

FoU is scum because he thinks TricMagic is scum which is completely incompatible with my meta read on TricMagic. Moreover, if FallacyofUrist were genuinely town, I think he should have the same read about TricMagic that I do given that I think he's a capable enough player for it and he's played with TricMagic enough to recognize it.

There are also aspects of his scum play that I recognize, but these showed up after my initial vote on him. I elaborated a bit in my previous post.

I don't think I've been mysterious about my reasons why so I'm confused why there's a gap for you. I wasted too much time answering this befuddling question.

[FallacyofUrist]

PFP before I go to bed

Why does it feel like Max and Jim are two sides of the same coin, here?

And why do both of them ascribe more competence to me than I actually have? Guys, I’m not actually that good at the day game. I think either you’re both malevolent or you need to take a hard look at that xkcd comic about geologists.

[TricMagic]

snips

How many people just skipped over my one defining post with any substance? Do you remember what it said Juicebox?

[TricMagic]

Fallacy:

If TricMagic actually transitions into acting properly town, I'll probably unvote, or move back to Jim.

Is this an actual response to my unvote, which is me unvoting him because I think he's acting better?  It doesn't sound like one.

Currently I don't really care about the number of people voting Tric? He's not going to go down, so what matters more is what I learned from the attempt.

Nearly certain Jim's going to launch a case on me as soon as he's next on the forum.

I do think my case jarred Tric into action, I'm just not sure by how much and whether that means he's town.

You mostly learned that I can gift hats. Not much else. I'm still waiting for that Thunderdome Fallacy, have some Conviction in your case. As is(and Toaster said it better), voting me while making that lynch my guilt. But you built that vote around people who I don't have any connections with personally. I haven't really pnged them as much, so.

Now the question is, which of these reads makes the least sense? Which is least genuine?
Fallacy Reading

Knightwing's read on Tric reeks of Knightwing. Genuineness high. What is Genuineness? You claim them to be correct in their read, yet vote me in the same post.

ToonyMan thinks Tric is being Tric. Genuineness high, but in all honesty I can't read Toony at all, generally speaking. You can't read Toony, but claim Genuineness from them. Being honest, I'm not really sure I can trust them if they're playing the long con. But that's fairly normal from me.

Fluffe is new. Genuineness high. Genuineness is new. Fluffe high. (Just words that can be swapped around. Rather than my opinion on them.)

EuchreJack... eh. Feels like he can do better. Genuineness N/A, will be reevaluated when he makes a proper effort to read him. (You claim Jack is a bad lynch, a trash read by me. Yet someone you can't trust and has yet to really be seen could be a possible Day 1 lynch. Why the Change of Heart?{I swear if that's actually your role I will laugh.})

Jim Groovester's read doesn't seem right. It seems like it's accurately described, but his behavior is eerily defensive. His sole reason for voting me is that I voted TricMagic and didn't read him how Jim read him. Genuineness low. (How is it low? They've participated, should be readable. What makes the drop in Genuineness? IMPORTANT: Timeline does not line up. Fallacy voted Jim first, after Jim voted Fallacy for his read. See Mamobo *links.
A point of order. Toaster was voting me before all of this. It's an outright fabrication of events to fit a theme.)

This is why having a lot of discussion is good, lies like these pop up. All you need to do is look for them. (You can say you made a mistake, but it's still a fault in your reasoning.)

Lenglon subscribes to hat tyrant theory. Genuineness moderate? Could do with more detail. (Why is Lenglon's Genuineness moderate? This is the point where we see who you don't trust. Or are setting up. In any case, please explain why.)

juicebox subscribes to hat tyrant theory. Genuineness high, but also subject to reevaluation. This deserves more detail. (An error? What makes the difference in Genuineness and why does Hat Tyrant make a lick of difference?
... Beyond which, in the same line you say reevalutation needed, which just feels... Tacky?)

Toaster thinks TricMagic is Org's reincarnation. Genuineness high. (No data for this read. No data for the reason.)

Egan's read is very Egany. Hat tyrant theory. Genuineness high. (At this point you've just stopped No reason beyond being Egany. And not even reevaluation.. Why are these three so different?)

A_Curious_Cat, aka Chilicarp, hasn't talked about Tric. Genuineness high, it's their first game, they get some slack. (And at this point it's all about the dragon in the room, not about connections and who's mafia or not.)

hector13... hm. Feels like he's not putting as much into reading Tric as he could be. Genuineness moderate-low. (And now you subscribe Genuineness to if people are even talking about me in the first place.)

notquitethere, as mentioned, seems to be avoiding making alignment based points about Tric. (Which is how you got the Mafia Team in the first place. This is completely backwards, as you'd be making the argument Mafia has just abandoned me. While in later posts you say Mafia doesn't ant to lose a vote. So wouldn't they attack you?)


So, crazy theory. I think the scumteam could realistically be TricMagic, Jim Groovester, and then one or both of hector13/notquitethere, depending on how the setup works out. If there's a bunch of third parties it'd be just one of them, if not it's both.

Jim and notquitethere's behavior seems to match the idea of 'distance the guy that'll drag us down like an anchor if we don't'. Reluctant to target him, but acknowledging that he's funky as hell. Hector is less suspicious, but still a possibility.

If this theory does hold water I'd scum-percentage these people as 100% scum (required) TricMagic, 85% scum Jim, 65% notquitethere, 40% scum hector.

The thing is though?

This makes TricMagic an ideal execution / vote. Based on this connection, it'll be extremely informative about the scumminess or lack thereof of a good few people. Nearly everyone has thoughts on Tric. We don't lose anything from the vote since the most likely outcomes are he's either third party or scum - most of us don't think he's town. (In conclusion, you've built your case around nothing, a complete lack of connections preluding a connection based upon that. But you've used Jim as your lynchpin for the team, who is trying to protect me. So your Fallacy isn't even internally consistent. There is no data to be gained because the internal reasoning is cracked, falling apart..)

It's, in other words, a safe, effective execution - perfect for Day 1.

I'm willing to sustain this vote for the remainder of the day unless a better target presents themselves. (So.. Fallacy. Who's the better target now that you're backing off?)

There probably are ninjas here. I'm posting this anyway, cause breaking apart a post is a fairly effective method of mine. Don't poke the sleeping dragon and all that. As for my third party status, no comment for now cause all my energy was focused upon this post.

[TricMagic]

Max: Why?

A few reasons. Selected:

• "Third-party" wasn't an option in role selection, and I'm not totally convinced there even are any. I believe that, if it were an option, Tric might have picked it - he was very happy with his dragon win - but given that it wasn't, I strongly suspect he would submit 'town'. One of his theme words, which are a thing he absolutely has, is "honesty".
• Tric was very pleased with himself when he won by dragoning and kept everyone in the dark. If he were actually a third party with a win condition to collect hats, why would he make such a big deal out of it? He could just collect hats on his own recognizance. The fact that he cheerfully admitted to wanting to steal hats suggests that he regards it as town-beneficial.
• The flavor does not present the Hat Tyrant as an oppositional character. It almost seems to be helping moderate after web apparently dies. Instead, we are presented with three different versions of a win condition, none of which have to do with hats:

“Pick the most suspicious among you to be processed.”
“Pick the gnarliest dude among you to receive a free pizza!”
“Pick those responsible for this travesty and I will punish them.”

I don't have strong beliefs at this point about what these mean, but I think the lack of hats is worth listing.

• TricMagic is acting in every post like town TricMagic. I don't know how to elaborate on this without just vaguely gesturing at everything TricMagic has done and saying "You don't have to like it, but this is what town TricMagic looks like." And I already kind of did that.
• EuchreJack was the first one to theorize a hat-related victory condition, anyway, and EuchreJack's weird theories are always wrong. No, specifically, what I mean here is, if you think that Tric was claiming 3p, why didn't he actually claim 3p instead of just kind of awkwardly sitting halfway on? Someone else gave him the idea and, in town TricMagic fashion, he rolled with it.
  

I think that's all I can handle processing right now. Probably should go to bed.

Kinda hate this is true.. Max is actually on point though, and that's a very good analysis of me. hmm..

Knightwing: Came out with his powerful hat freely. Probably town.
Max: Genuine responses, good analysis. Probobly town? (I'm kinda used to him sitting an making comments day 1, but this is a bigger game with a lot more people. Having actual data to analyze probobly helps.) NQT, you may wish to participate too.
Toaster: Probably town. Yeah, he voted me, but it's not from a mafia perspe.. Well Scum perspective, but from a Mafia(the game) perspective. I'm already made my analysis on why I think he's acting alone. (Yeah, may be TP, but that's not mafia anyway. Just as likely to be town depending on what was set up by webadict.)

Still going through things. And on the music, that's just a cool set piece for when I dig into things. I like Ace Attorney.

[Toaster]

Fallacy:

The problem with meta reads is that when people grow or atypical role situations occur, they can become inaccurate. Both apply here.

Regarding you or TricMagic?

[EuchreJack]

EuchreJack:

Toony: I was voting on my own to see how others responded, including voting Toaster as you & Jim seemed to suspect him. But you seem to have been doing well, and I love TMNT, so I guess I can sheep you for a bit.

"I was voting on my own by copying what you did"

At what point of the game are you going to stop sheeping?  I don't mean pretending to not sheep; I mean actually stop.
[/Quote ]
Day 2, ideally.
Otherwise Tric is gonna have to roll out the "Jack is a Sheep" meme again.

[EuchreJack]

EuchreJack:

Toony: I was voting on my own to see how others responded, including voting Toaster as you & Jim seemed to suspect him. But you seem to have been doing well, and I love TMNT, so I guess I can sheep you for a bit.

"I was voting on my own by copying what you did"

At what point of the game are you going to stop sheeping?  I don't mean pretending to not sheep; I mean actually stop.

Day 2, ideally.
Otherwise Tric is gonna have to roll out the "Jack is a Sheep" meme again.

[FallacyofUrist]

[img=https://xkcd.com/2501/][/img]