Time for another round of AI news:
The most obvious is the advances in biotechnology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz7Qp73lj9o“It makes the system much more general, and in particular for drug discovery purposes (in early-stage research), it’s far more useful now than AlphaFold 2,” he says. But as with most models, the impact of AlphaFold will depend on how accurate its predictions are. For some uses, AlphaFold 3 has double the success rate of similar leading models like RoseTTAFold.
Alphafold 3 has been a major breakthrough, extending AI mapping from just proteins to "all of life's molecules" and is substantially more accurate than V2, which was already the most accurate system to figure out how to fold proteins. Its not as easy to see the direct impacts as stuff like LLM's or image-gen, but its a really big deal.
In Phase I we find AI-discovered molecules have an 80–90% success rate, substantially higher than historic industry averages. This suggests, we argue, that AI is highly capable of designing or identifying molecules with drug-like properties.
AI made drugs turn out to have a vastly lower failure rate, which given the huge cost of designing drugs and sending them through the approval process is a huge deal. Alphafold 3 will presumably have an even lower failure rate.
Biotechnology in general is advancing at a crazy rate right now even excluding the AI stuff (eg. advances in gene editing have been huge). However, unlike AI most of these advances will take time to see the effects of, especially stuff like designer babies that necessarily have longer time horizons.
---
On the generative AI front things are still advancing, with the most notable advances belonging to the "oh shit that's terrifying" category of deepfakes.
Notably OpenAI has an AI that can clone anyone's voice with just 15 seconds of them talking, and microsoft has a AI that can, using just a photo create a realistic video of someone's face. Neither are 100% perfect, but if you get a video call on your phone from your panicked mom using her voice and using her face... well the vast majority of people won't be able to tell the difference.
The two in combination mean that both voice and video recognition will be useless.
The ability of AI to just ingest your entire timeline (insofar as the attackers can get access to it) and basically the whole internet means that stuff like security questions will also be active vulnerabilities.
Miles Brundage: The fact that banks are still not only allowing but actively encouraging voice identification as a means of account log-in is concerning re: the ability of some big institutions to adapt to AI.
Once these techs (or equivalents) get released, scamming is going to get way better and cheaper, and security is going to get really tough.
---
Kevin Fischer: YIKES. Wild exchange with Tucker Carlson and Sam Seder on AI
“We’re letting a bunch of greedy stupid childless software engineers in Northern California to flirt with the extinction of mankind.” – Tucker Carlson
Finally, it looks like a famous public figure has finally got to the "Wait, why the hell are we letting people make these systems that could very well end the human race. We need to stop this at any costs even if we need to blow up data centers." But the person actually saying that is Tucker fucking Carlson so...