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[anewaname]

Meanwhile Trump is considering the tempting offer Ukraine is making, where Ukraine is saying... "why invade Greenland, Canada, and Mexico when you can get a piece of Ukraine...". Trump has seen how well Putin did from exporting energies into the EU, and he is being offered a % of Ukrainian exports into the EU, and all he has to do is give someone else's money to Ukraine.

[Il Palazzo]

As I heard some podcaster say, at this point the best way to regaining Crimea would be to pitch a piece of land there for a Trump resort.
While we're at it, maybe promise to rename Donetsk to Donald City, and Sea of Azov to Sea of America.

[Strongpoint]

I like the idea. Donetsk to Donaldsk. It's almost the same after all.

[Il Palazzo]

Hey, listen. Tambov -> Trumpov; Ivanovo -> Ivankovo. Rostov over Don -> Rostov under Don Jr. There are options for expansion here.

[Starver]

At least until Russia counter-offers with "Muskow"/"Мюсква”...

[Strongpoint]

At least until Russia counter-offers with "Muskow"/"Мюсква”...

It is already Maskva in Russian phonetically. Yes, they write it Moskva and it should be read as O there but in the modern spoken Russian language, especially in the Moscow dialect, they use A.

[martinuzz]

Well. Hegseth told Europe: No NATO for Ukraine, no getting territory back for Ukraine, and US will not play a role there after peace is established. US will focus on defense against China, which they consider a bigger threat.

He did not say whether arms deliveries from the US will continue or not.

[Strongpoint]

Well. Hegseth told Europe: No NATO for Ukraine, no getting territory back for Ukraine

Well, this is nothing new. Biden administration, while being more diplomatic and vague, always acted in a way that a deal in the form of "Russia keeps control on what it already captured, stops shooting and promises to not restart the war later" is acceptable.

But Russia always wanted more. Did Russian offensive potential degrade to the point that they may agree to it now and take a breather to recover? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

[EuchreJack]

I expect some sort of ceasefire will probably occur soonish.  That would be enough for Trumpy to claim victory, Putin to retool his war factories, and Ukraine to acquire additional sources of war material.  That it starts up again would probably fall below the notice of the American people.

"The War in Ukraine is over! Trump said so!"
"Low level fighting seems to have resumed. Propagandists claim it never actually ended."

Following prior US precedent and current observations of the US government, I would expect the sanctions to be loosened but not eliminated.  Essentially, Trump gets "politically free" tariffs on Russia. And the US ain't giving back anything confiscated from Russia or Russia's nationals.

The whole thing is disrespectful to the Ukrainian people, but realistically Ukraine has enjoyed far more American attention and support that most of the other wars currently being waged in the World.

I expect the Ore for Guns deal will go forward (Titanium for Tanks, Aluminum for Aircraft?).

[Strongpoint]

It will be extremely hard to force Ukrainian units not to launch FPV drones at Russians because some fucks in Kyiv agreed to a ceasefire.

The same goes for the Russian side and fucks in Moscow even if their forces are more obedient.  This is why I don't believe in a full ceasefire

[Strongpoint]

Trump: "I would love to have Russia back in the G7. It was a mistake to kick Russia out."

Just make the US join BRICS, you, *self-censored*

____________________
It is one of my biggest fears, that everything Russia did will be erased, that everything will go back to business as usual in the name of peace and cooperation

[anewaname]

Trump is the epitome of a bully who has used his physical bulk, number of allies, and inherited resources, to avoid physical fights. War is the one social system that works outside of the social systems that Trump knows; Trump has always relied on other social systems to enforce his "wins" and protect him from physical violence (police & law). He doesn't understand people being willing to physically fight and die instead of submitting, because he has always had those other social systems to prevent him from being physically murdered or enslaved.

These ceasefire negotiations will not be about ending the war, they will be about Ukraine submitting or not submitting. Ukraine will refuse to accept treaties that are a submission, so the war will continue. Trump will attempt to subvert the EU's support of Ukraine, but many of the EU's far-right fully understand that Russia will not accept anything from them except submission, so they will continue to support Ukraine, and Trump will not be able to leverage them effectively.

[Strongpoint]

In social networks, I often see something like "If Putin truly wants peace, all he needs to do is to pull forces out of Ukraine." It is not true anymore. Even such a step won't stop the war between Ukraine and Russia, it will merely transform it. All those pesky Ukrainians who want payback will keep hunting Russian war criminals, will help enemies of Russia all over the world, and will do anything they can to near Russia's end.

This war can't be stopped by anything but the complete defeat of one side or another. Some diplomatic games for breathers and temporary reduction of war intensity - sure, it can happen.  But there will be no peace

[heydude6]

If that's really the case, then that's a bad sign for the future. Personally, I would have been happy if Ukraine recaptured its old territory (including Crimea) and then we ended the war. While both countries recovered, Ukraine could have been inducted into NATO securing the country against future invasions.

I mean it was never a realistic goal (Russia may not be good at conquering new territory, but they seem to know how to hold onto what they already had), but it was at least some kind of path towards peace.

Now you're saying that we have nothing.

[Strongpoint]

OK guys, can someone explain to me the logic of.... attacking the outer sarcophagus of the Chornobyl 4th reactor with a drone?

No. I kinda understand why. We probably have no air defense there and it is a step to force us to move some there... but WTF?