Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Strongpoint]

I still think most of Russia's nukes are long gone and been replaced with cardboard cutouts.

I think so too, but if 5% are working, the world is still fucked.

But with our luck, all of the working ones will be used on Ukraine.

[Lord Shonus]

Has Russia withdrawn from the US-Russian mutual nuclear inspection thingymabob? I can't remember.

If they were fucked you'd think the US would be acting more aggressively if the inspections are ongoing. Hell, even if they're not actively going, if a good number were functional when they suspended it they'd still be very cautious.

No, the US did.
Guess which US President did it...

That wasn't an inspection-related treaty. That was a "you can't have missiles that fly further than X distance and aren't intercontinental" agreement because IRBM flight times are too short to easily respond to - by the time you've picked up the launch and have confirmed the threat, the warheads are likely to be landing. This makes it very hard to issue retaliation orders and thus undermines the balance of terror. Or it makes France/Britain/Russia willing to launch at the slightest hint of a threat and destabilizes the balance.

Trump's the one that pulled out of it, but this was one of his few moves that most allied leaders agreed with - the Russians were blatantly cheating on the treaty, giving them a strong advantage.

[Strongpoint]

First round of the presidential election in Romania was won by a pro-Russian fascist. I am noticing the trend. He is unlikely to win the second round but still...

Something must be done to Russian\Chinise destructive election interference. And every sane country should ban the damned TikTok (and probably X).

[heydude6]

If these leaders are elected as a retaliation to their opposition mishandling the economy during Covid (a global phenomenon), then there probably doesn't need to be a conspiracy theory to put them into power sadly. The next decade will be a serious challenge for our democratic ideals.

[Strongpoint]

While I agree that there are economic and social reasons why in 2020s people tend to vote for "something new", Russia and China influencing elections is not a conspiracy theory. They are doing it, supporting either friendly or destructive candidates.

It also not always works as intended. For example, Russian propaganda was working overtime to get Zelensky elected because they viewed him as someone way better for them than Poroshenko.

[heydude6]

It also not always works as intended. For example, Russian propaganda was working overtime to get Zelensky elected because they viewed him as someone way better for them than Poroshenko.

I mean, Russia probably did underestimate Zelensky, but my family's consensus is that Poroshenko would have handled the war better.

Although, they also say that if Poroshenko got elected, then Putin wouldn't have invaded in the first place. Thoughts?

[Strongpoint]

Although, they also say that if Poroshenko got elected, then Putin wouldn't have invaded in the first place. Thoughts?

My personal opinion is that he would invade sooner having no hope for a hybrid\diplomatic victory.

I am not sure if Poroshenko would handle the war itself better but I am sure that he would prepare for the war better. We drastically slowed our army reforms, fortification construction* and developement of domestic military hardware in the period of 2019-2022. Then again, I think it would start way sooner than 2022. Perhaps mid-Covid when the world was distracted.

What would be worse is informational warfare. Russian-speaking Jew from Eastern Ukraine who won elections in almost all regions of Ukraine just doesn't fit the Russian narrative, at all.


*stuff built in Donbas pre-2019 played a huge role in holding that front. And Poroshenko wouldn't freaking demine Crimean front, the only one that collapsed in February of 2022 resulting in the fall of Southern Ukraine.

[wobbly]

I suspect most scenarios play out similarly, unless the west take Russia more seriously, Putin has a random heart attack, or etc. etc.

[Great Order]

First round of the presidential election in Romania was won by a pro-Russian fascist. I am noticing the trend. He is unlikely to win the second round but still...

Something must be done to Russian\Chinise destructive election interference. And every sane country should ban the damned TikTok (and probably X).

Ha, ironically China has the right idea - They're working to ban the algorithms that promote division and anger. One of the few things I'll agree with them on, these things have been left to run amok for way too long and it's causing serious damage to the West and especially our democratic institutions. The content itself shouldn't be banned, but the constant promotion of it by social media to create anger-driven engagement ought to be.

[Eric Blank]

I can get behind that, too.

[lemon10]

First round of the presidential election in Romania was won by a pro-Russian fascist. I am noticing the trend. He is unlikely to win the second round but still...

Something must be done to Russian\Chinise destructive election interference. And every sane country should ban the damned TikTok (and probably X).

Ha, ironically China has the right idea - They're working to ban the algorithms that promote division and anger. One of the few things I'll agree with them on, these things have been left to run amok for way too long and it's causing serious damage to the West and especially our democratic institutions. The content itself shouldn't be banned, but the constant promotion of it by social media to create anger-driven engagement ought to be.

Yeah.
The issue isn't really Russia, the issue is that the internet and social media broke the global system around information and moved news from a heavily regulated non-anonymous system into one where the only real motive is how much money you can make the company in charge and spreading disinfo can be done completely anonymously.
---
As you say, China is one of the very few countries moving in the right direction, but given the dysfunctional state of American politics and FREEDUM* of speech I can't see America doing the stuff needed.

*Especially for the poor poor corporations.
---
Who the hell knows what will happen with AI thrown into the mix, but unless the western governments actually get off their asses... it probably gets worse.

[King Zultan]

The world would be better off without social media.

[Starver]

The world would be better off without social media.

I blame the Eternal September...

[McTraveller]

The world would be better off without social media.

The real issue is social media doesn't encourage considering other viewpoints. And even when it presents other viewpoints, it's usually a proponent of View A saying "look how dumb View B is!" rather than something like "Hey, have you even considered View B? Let's compare and contrast..."  There is also almost no self-reflection; that is, proponents of View A very rarely will say "here are the potential problems with View A, but I still support it because..."

Social media is just a catalyst...or maybe an amplifier... just like any amplifier, it can do great things, but if you set up the feedback loops poorly then there is going to be a failure.

[King Zultan]

From what I've seen the conversations on social media move way to fast for anyone to get any kind of meaningful conversation to happen due to how fast things get swept away by other crap.