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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0  (Read 238377 times)

Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2445 on: November 08, 2024, 12:19:24 pm »

Quote
Donald Trump's phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday included two surprises: Elon Musk was also on the line , and Zelensky was somewhat reassured by what he heard from the president-elect, two sources with knowledge of the call tell Axios.

One of the real rulers of the new US behind the back of a barely functioning old man (who never was particularly smart even in the young years)... Oligarchs with fascists views are fun!

Also, I pity Zelensky. He now has to lick Trump's ass and say that it smells like roses. Well, everyone need to make sacrifices for the victory, right?
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hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2446 on: November 08, 2024, 12:41:21 pm »

You mean the oligarch with fascist views behind the oligarch with fascist views?

It’s a shitty situation for Zelensky and Ukraine to be in, but we’ve all seen how easily Trump is cowed by flattery. Just needs to keep that up and hopefully get support from elsewhere before the likes of Vance manage to talk Trump into cutting off aid.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2447 on: November 08, 2024, 04:11:15 pm »

My expectations are grim: Trump's administration will reach some kind of a "ceasefire" deal with Russia. Ukraine will receive an ultimatum from Trump's administration - accept this or keep fighting with zero American aid. Zelensky will fold. War will be kinda paused (2015-2022 style sporadic mutual shelling but with a larger front + hybrid warfare) until it will resume when Russia will find it convenient and crash through Ukraine weakened by numerous post-war crises.
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hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2448 on: November 08, 2024, 07:17:00 pm »

America isn’t the only country supplying aid, though I think they were the biggest supplier last I checked.

I don’t think Zelensky will fold. He has, at least as presented in the Western media, been pretty solidly rallying support for Ukraine for the duration, and I think Europe at least is wary enough of Trump that they won’t necessarily do what America decides to do, particularly if he smacks blanket tariffs down on everything.

Biden is rushing to get the already approved aid to Ukraine before the handover, so even if that’s the last of it, hopefully someone else can pick up the slack.
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MaxTheFox

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2449 on: November 08, 2024, 07:41:59 pm »

The best hope is that the EU ends up giving more aid, imho. Maybe even a direct intervention.

Depends on who will win in Germany probably.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2450 on: November 10, 2024, 09:25:36 am »

Watching pro-Ukrainian and\or anti-Russian Trump voters slowly realizing that Trump will fill his administration with openly pro-Russian folk would be so funny if I didn't live in Ukraine...
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wobbly

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2451 on: November 10, 2024, 10:15:24 am »

America isn’t the only country supplying aid, though I think they were the biggest supplier last I checked.

I'm pessimistic about the EU supporting Ukraine without a US push. Macron was involved in the peace deal that saw Georgia give part of its territory to Russia. Hungary's PM is friendly with Putin.

As far as NATO is concerned Erdogon is also friendly with Putin.

India continued to buy gas from Russia, and effectively a lot of countries boycotting Russia bought Russian gas indirectly.

Edit: At the end of the day the USA, isn't the only country where far right sentiments are on the rise.

Edit 2: My own feeling is the west never committed itself to real support of Ukraine sovereignty, we went with a policy that stank of cowardice. Better than Chechnya, better than Georgia, but honestly the west feared Putin losing more than it feared Putin winning. Big spends on military aid are great if you are a politician trying to look like you are taking the moral high ground, but... I don't know how to describe how I feel other than the policy was always "try and stop Russia winning without risking Russia Losing". Very sad.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2024, 10:55:32 am by wobbly »
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2452 on: November 10, 2024, 01:23:00 pm »

Also, the whole idea of "maybe Europe will somehow raise their support and manage to maintain it at the current total" is not reassuring at all. Current is just not enough to win the war. Ukraine is losing.

In some way Trump getting to power in the USA is... a chance for Ukraine? Why? Because while it is extremely likely that his administration will be pro-Russian shit, you can never predict what a populist demagogue will do. Maybe he'll wake up in a bad mood and nuke Russia. With Harris we could only expect the continuation of the losing strategy of the current administration.

Also, Iran is likely in a big trouble. One of Russians allies will be busy elsewhere.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2453 on: November 10, 2024, 03:20:25 pm »

Trump needs more wars in the world to distract from his Kleptomaniac tendencies, not less.

Dunno how that works for Ukraine.

martinuzz

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2454 on: November 10, 2024, 04:01:44 pm »

Trump made a phonecall to Putin.
He warned Putin to not escalate the conflict in Ukraine any further, and reminded him of 'Washington's sizeable military prescence in Europe'.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

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lemon10

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2455 on: November 10, 2024, 07:31:16 pm »

Also, the whole idea of "maybe Europe will somehow raise their support and manage to maintain it at the current total" is not reassuring at all. Current is just not enough to win the war. Ukraine is losing.

In some way Trump getting to power in the USA is... a chance for Ukraine? Why? Because while it is extremely likely that his administration will be pro-Russian shit, you can never predict what a populist demagogue will do. Maybe he'll wake up in a bad mood and nuke Russia. With Harris we could only expect the continuation of the losing strategy of the current administration.

Also, Iran is likely in a big trouble. One of Russians allies will be busy elsewhere.
(Excluding Trump ending US aid) Not really? Russia is taking ground, but the war effort is unsustainable on their end.
Not only is their economy overheating, but they are using far more materiel then they produce.

Sure, they took quite a bit of ground recently, but that's come with extraordinary costs in materiel and manpower (typically losing 4x of what Ukraine does for both). If they keep this up they might take all the land in a decade or two, but they can't keep it up for a decade or two.

Although as I said at the start that assumed US aid continues, which it probably won't, Ukraine will indeed be in a ton of trouble if it stops.
---
On a completely different note I had no clue that NK had supplied so many artillery shells to Russia, with estimates being 8-9 million. This completely overshadows the mere ~10k troops they sent in.
The shells do of course suck with ~50% chance of not working properly, but even then that's a shit ton of shells.
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heydude6

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2456 on: November 11, 2024, 12:36:23 am »

Shells are what Ukraine needs the most right now, but the West in its weakness dismantled most of the factories they had to make them some time ago. We do not have the economic machinery needed to wage a real war like we used to, and Ukraine is suffering because of that.

But regardless of how they feel about Ukraine, countries should start rebooting decayed military infrastructure. I have yet to see any sign that WWIII is being averted so it would be wise to prepare for it. Ukraine is a good inspiration to look towards if people want to know what materiel they're gonna need.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2457 on: November 11, 2024, 01:06:46 am »

Shells are what Ukraine needs the most right now, but the West in its weakness dismantled most of the factories they had to make them some time ago. We do not have the economic machinery needed to wage a real war like we used to, and Ukraine is suffering because of that.

It isn't just the manufacturing facilities for shells. That can be repurposed from other uses.

The vast majority of NATO explosives use TNT in their filler, either by itself or as a stabilizer for more powerful but temperamental explosives. The US does not manufacture TNT at all (a facility in a company to remedy this problem was announced within the last week), and in the EU only Poland makes the stuff. The propelling charge to launch the shells is similar in nature to that used in small arms, but are needed in quantities large enough that even the well-established US and Czech civilian ammunition markets are heavily distorted by the demand.

When you're firing your artillery only in training or in extremely limited combat, you aren't going to be buying more than a trickle of shells every year, and that means the entire supply chain withers and dies from lack of orders. Ukraine almost certainly fires more shells every month (quite possibly in some single days) than NATO fires in a decade. Of the NATO countries, only the US made any effort to stockpile munitions for an all-up war, and this fight has proved that even the US stockpile is deeply and fundamentally inadequate.
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eerr

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2458 on: November 11, 2024, 01:12:39 am »

I'm not exactly thrilled that this conflict requires a military buildup. Countries that do that generally find reasons to war.
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martinuzz

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2459 on: November 11, 2024, 02:32:28 am »

And countries that don't get overrun when war does get to their doorstep.
The Netherlands was neutral in WWI, and expected Hitler to respect their neutrality as well.
We were overrun and conquered in 3 days.
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