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[anewaname]

Nothing in war is less than a tremendous waste of resources... And the benefit would be that all of the Russian citizens would have a chance to have a private laugh at Putin's expense. Most older Russians have no toys and are to some degree, jealous of Putin's toys.

Most Russian citizens will either don't care or be insulted that their Tzar is humiliated. But let's say you are right. How can private laughs help Ukraine to win the war? How can it change Russia for the better?

Changing Russia and winning the war are different things. I'm going to answer about "winning the war" and leave "changing Russia" for others to contemplate.

Ukraine is never going to win using brute force because there is too much meat to fit in the meat-grinder. They need a political win from other methods, and keeping the Russian public from having any interest in fighting is important for that political win.

So, what would the Russian news media and the Russian citizens say for each of these scenarios?
A) Ukraine drone-bombs a weapons factory near a city but collateral damage kills some citizens.
B) Ukraine drone-bombs one of Putin's palaces and wrecks a bunch of stuff, then releases the videos into the Russian media space.

I'm not saying it should be a focus, but there are already people trying to determine if killing Putin is an option, which means they are already looking at the locations where he might be and how best to attack them.

[Strongpoint]

Nothing in war is less than a tremendous waste of resources... And the benefit would be that all of the Russian citizens would have a chance to have a private laugh at Putin's expense. Most older Russians have no toys and are to some degree, jealous of Putin's toys.

So, what would the Russian news media and the Russian citizens say for each of these scenarios?
A) Ukraine drone-bombs a weapons factory near a city but collateral damage kills some citizens.
B) Ukraine drone-bombs one of Putin's palaces and wrecks a bunch of stuff, then releases the videos into the Russian media space.

1) Russian media will say what they are ordered to say unless you count some opposition social network accounts as media.
2) Why do you even think Russians care if Putin's stuff is damaged? Zombie pro-Putin don't even believe it is his. Regular pro-Putin know that it is a minor thing. Pro-war anti-Putin will have a small smile on their face. Liberal anti-Putin folk won't change any opinions.

I'm not saying it should be a focus, but there are already people trying to determine if killing Putin is an option, which means they are already looking at the locations where he might be and how best to attack them.

How is this related to a drone hitting some Putin's pretty house?

They need a political win from other methods, and keeping the Russian public from having any interest in fighting is important for that political win.

I have an opposite opinion on that. For a "political victory". To make Russian public want to stop a war a simple thing should happen. When missiles hit some Ukrainian city and kill a few dozens, first thought of a Russian should be not "Ha, more Khohols dead" but "oh fuck, a retaliatory attack will leave ME without a bridge, without water and electricity, without my job when my factory will be bombed, or(if I am unlucky) without my life". At least in the border regions. Unfortunately, Ukraine has no such capabilities.

Why should they care if bombs hit Putin's stuff? How can it motivate them to desire the end of the war to the point of doing something?

[King Zultan]

Putin made some more threats in a Russian security council meeting today.

He says he will use nuclear weapons when Russia is attacked by conventional weapons, if those weapons are supplied by a nuclear power.

I'm sure those nukes are totally real and not cardboard cutouts.

[Random_Dragon]

Once again Putin fails to obey rules one and two of actually looking like a competent dictator:
1. Do not threaten to nuke a country that borders yours.
2. Do not threaten to nuke territory you want to conquer.

Seeing as that entails the wonderful combination of being in easy reach of the fallout AND threatening to glass real estate that the kremlin has no doubt already planned to build new dachas for their oligarchs on, it only serves to make him look like a clown.

[lemon10]

The reason they are bombing artillery depots is that a small drone can explode and do a truly massive amount of damage.
Hitting a big ammo/fuel costs a few drones, but costs Russia a ton of money and supplies. Very good investment and return for Ukraine.

Putin's mansions certainly would have their own air defenses to counter your drones. Even if they did work all you would be doing is hitting Putin's mansion with a drone that probably explodes no more then a single random room. Costs russia a few thousand for some carpenters to patch up the room, and wastes a bunch of drones for ukraine on the AA defenses. Very bad investment and return for ukraine.

[Lord Shonus]

Seeing reports that the US has announced a new aid package that includes the AGM-154A JSOW. This is a high glide bomb with a range of up to 130 kilometers if released at high altitude, and carries 145 bomblets that are twice the size of those released by ATACMS. The MLU program which was fitted to the now-Ukrainian F-16s postdates the introduction of this weapon, so it is unlikely that they require modification to carry it. Each plane could probably carry four of them.


This is potentially a very big deal - this weapon is practically tailor-made to dig entrenched troops out of fortifications or to shatter large-scale assaults, and the main use of it in US service has been as a sledgehammer to smash air defense. These are extremely valuable capabilities. Most importantly, this is an air-launched weapon from the country who's war plan involves "the sky is made of bombs!" as a core strategy. There are likely to be a great many in inventory.

[Il Palazzo]

We're still doing the game changer thing? They need more basic hardware to equip their brigades with, not another wunderwaffe for the six or so operational planes they have.

[Lord Shonus]

They're also getting a bunch of regular equipment. New weapons that expand capabilities are extremely important.

[Strongpoint]

Yeah, we need either A) A lot of very basic stuff like artillery shells, cars, FPV\quadrocopter drones or B) Stuff that can hit DEEP and permission to use that stuff on strategic targets.

Cool expensive precise weapons are certainly useful but don't change that much.

. Most importantly, this is an air-launched weapon from the country who's war plan involves "the sky is made of bombs!" as a core strategy

Not... really... USA was that some time ago. Nowadays the core strategy of the US is - all our enemies are inferior so we'll use a limited number of very expensive precise munitions to limit collateral damage.

[EuchreJack]

They're also getting a bunch of regular equipment. New weapons that expand capabilities are extremely important.

It's easier to give Ukraine the basic shells they need if the American public is distracted by the Wonder Weapons.

There is also a bit of RealPolitik going on.  By arming Ukraine with more sophisticated and advanced equipment, it normalizes the sending of more mundane equipment.

"Why are we arguing about sending Ukraine more shells when we sent them our advanced air launched weapon system last month?"

[Great Order]

And, as ever, it works as a field test for new equipment against a more traditional military than the terrorists the US has been fighting the past two decades.

[martinuzz]

And, as ever, it works as a field test for new equipment against a more traditional military than the terrorists the US has been fighting the past two decades.

That is a double edged sword though. It also provides said traditional enemy with combat experience against the new equipment.

[Nirur Torir]

And, as ever, it works as a field test for new equipment against a more traditional military than the terrorists the US has been fighting the past two decades.

That is a double edged sword though. It also provides said traditional enemy with combat experience against the new equipment.

I don't think it matters. Russia's sacrificing their economy to try to get enough artillery on the front. They're being left them out of what is liable to be a critical time for an industrial boom, as over the next few years we'll see increasing experiments in industrial automation. There's no time for Russia to play catch up while trying to rebuild the USSR's military capability.

China's interested in that data, sure, but that doesn't matter, since the planet wouldn't survive a shooting war with China regardless.

[Strongpoint]

Russia is not sacrificing its economy. They are doing fine and keep growing. And will keep doing fine as long as oil flows.

[Madman198237]

Russia is not sacrificing its economy. They are doing fine and keep growing. And will keep doing fine as long as oil flows.

This is patently untrue. They keep posting mostly positive claims but the evidence suggests that, while sanctions and war expenditures are not crushing them to pieces as fast as we all want, the Russian economy is not doing so hot and is likely to get worse and worse if things continue (or get better for Ukraine). They're certainly, for instance, selling their oil at a lot lower price than they want to be.

See Perun's recent video on the Russian war economy for a pretty well-researched account that lays out the facts.

China's interested in that data, sure, but that doesn't matter, since the planet wouldn't survive a shooting war with China regardless.

I mean, the planet's survived a shooting war with Russia in it for a few years now so frankly I'm not sure what you mean, unless you believe that China could take on the entire world with conventional forces? China is not more likely than Russia to start a nuclear war - for all their many faults the Chinese government at least projects a sense of pragmatism and probably understands that turning cities into dust and ash does not help their prospects.