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[Strongpoint]

Hypersonic missiles weren't part of Iran's attack. Also there was ample warning time. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the ability of Russia to attack a nearby NATO country closer than Israel is to Iran (12 hours by drone.)

Sure, attacking some Estonia will be more effective. Even Poland or Sweden will have problems despite major investments in air defense. But to win a conventional war with a European part of NATO you need to bomb countries that are key for their military and industry - Germany, France, Italy Russian missiles and drones are not reaching there at any significant numbers. And the USA is as safe as possible.

ICBMs are the problem, we do not know what the Russian Strategic Missile Force is capable of. Neither do we know what West can actually do in its defense. But we do know how modern Air Defense handles conventional mass attacks of Russian\Iranian level of tech. We got a clear demonstration.

[lemon10]

Isreal has the best country wide air defense system and state of readiness in the world, trying to use it as an argument that Russian nukes will all be shot down if they target basically anywhere else is silly. Like sure, Paris or London or DC might have sufficient defenses to stop an attack, but if they target 99% of the rest of the countries things get way deicer, especially since they probably have hundreds of nukes to throw around.

[Strongpoint]

Americans, thank you for Marjorie Taylor-Greene!

Every time when I am in despair that our politicians are a bunch of total morons, she does something that reminds me that no, they are not that bad. Worse examples exist.

Those amendments of hers... mmmmmm... Pure art of idiocy.

https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/Conscript%20amendment240417145722857.pdf
https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/GREENE_218_xml240417151911517.pdf

[EuchreJack]

I refuse to use her name, since people saying her name is literally the only thing she truly cares about. I sometimes think she's a Russian plant, but I think she's just a useful idiot. Someone ought to look into her campaign finances, though.

[Strongpoint]

This thread is so dormant... And to be honest nothing of note happened. Typical war of attrition with Ukraine slowly retreating all over the front.
_______________________

Today Russia dropped two huge bombs on an "Epicenter" (simmilar to American "Home Depot") hypermarket in Kharkiv... Middle of the day, Saturday. Clear and oblivious strike with the intent to kill as many civilians as possible. Hundreds are suspected to be there, it will be a day of a slowly rising death toll. Damn, I hate those so much. I guess no social networks for me today.

[Telgin]

I'll admit I haven't been keeping up with the war like I was, since it was obvious it had devolved into a depressing stalemate that Ukraine was unlikely to come out on top of.  I feel bad for anyone in Ukraine since as an American it's depressing enough.

I'm glad that the US finally did send more aid, but it's certainly not going to be enough for long.

I've read in a couple of places that Ukraine claims to have retaken the lost territory in Kharkiv, but I don't know whether to believe that since the Ukrainian government has obvious incentive to claim that even if it's not totally true.

[Lord Shonus]

Ukraine appears to have blown up an important radar station used to watch for ballistic missile attacks from the US.

[Strongpoint]

I've read in a couple of places that Ukraine claims to have retaken the lost territory in Kharkiv, but I don't know whether to believe that since the Ukrainian government has obvious incentive to claim that even if it's not totally true.

It is anecdotal but all, I mean all my contacts at\near the frontline describe the situation as the worst since the beginning of the war. And internal political\economical\social stability is increasingly not good. This summer will be rough, really rough

[anewaname]

I'd summarize the last few months this way...

The lack of aid packages had forced Ukraine to ration their weapons which allowing some Russian advances. The aid packages passed, so Ukraine stopped rationing, and the Russian advances were halted but not reversed (all were small advances, but the loss of Avdiivka should not have happened).

There were two military attacks that were politically important: the communications hub in Crimea was hit, and the missile ship Tsiklon was sunk in Svestopol harbor (in shallow water, with the mast sticking out of the water, link).

Some problems that the pro-Ukraine groups need to resolve are:
- ensuring continuance of aid packages.
- allowing Ukraine to use weapons against military targets within Russia (in one podcast, they were suggesting the three Russian oblasts bordering the northeast border near Kharkiv, where Russia has artillery and aircraft staying in Russian territory and attacking Ukraine).
- finding where "western" pro-Russia politicians are getting finance/profit from Russia, because Moscow Marge may believe she is getting money from people in the USA, but those giving her money are directly or indirectly getting it from Russia, just like George Santos did).
- continuing to close sanction loopholes and bypasses.
- denying the pro-Russian groups who seek state control in Georgia and other ex-USSR states.

[King Zultan]

Damn and here I was hoping that no news was good news.

[The_Explorer]

Its mostly about Russia, and there are other topics for China specifically. Like I posted in my old twitter/X thread about china, though different drama. But it doesn't help China is apparently giving russia a lot of support apparently. If true, that is really huge as China's economy/military and production makes russia look like an ant in comparison. Though no idea the quality of the stuff...they can at least mass produce it. But considering a brief google shows business insider, NY times has stuff about it...probably is true.

Wouldn't surprise me either if china sent stuff to north korea for north korea to send to russia, since north korea has sent stuff to them already, as a way to try get around any sanctions. Even though north korea already has a ton of sanctions, that somehow they are getting around...

Whole thing is gross though. If china is playing a direct role in things over in ukraine, its pretty huge, as that would explain why russia suddenly is doing so good (cause even without republicans lack of support for a while, ukraine was doing ok, was a stalemate yeah, but they weren't losing), but apparently china stepped in more to try and turn things around for russia. Russia was running out of all kinds of things to wage senseless war, suddenly they have tons of stuff out of nowhere which made me confused how they suddenly got huge stockpiles of weapons to use, till I recently saw china had a big role in things...so that would certainly explain it

[EuchreJack]

China wants Russia to successfully annex more of Ukraine, as it builds precedent for their planned annexation of Taiwan.
If Russia wins, then China is gonna try to blitzkrieg Taiwan.

[Nirur Torir]

[snip]

[Maximum Spin]

I dunno, it seems unlikely that China is having that much of a direct impact compared to, say, Russia making loads of money for its fossil fuels. That said, China doesn't actually need to do any crazy indirect thing to get around sanctions.

It's also extremely silly to describe Russia as "subsidiary of China" in this geopolitical context, but I know that conversation's not going to go anywhere.

[anewaname]

An excerpt from a BBC article, How is China supporting Russia...:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

In an interview with BBC News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: "What's not happening is the provision of actual arms by China to Russia for use in Ukraine."

However, China has been accused of building up Moscow's war machine by providing critical components.

Mr Blinken said: "Those are being used to help Russia on what's an extraordinary crash course effort to make more munitions, tanks, armoured vehicles, missiles."

About 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the microelectronics Russia imports come from China, he added.

Sanctions are working to some degree, but they are being partially bypassed... Bill Brouder's May/2024 testimony to the UK House of Commons Treasury Committee was excellent. He covers a lot of ground about the sanctions, how well they are working and where some loopholes are, and solutions.