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[scriver]

I don’t think I’m alone in wondering what actually took it so long.

Might just be that it was the time it took to get him into a false sense of security and thinking he had gotten away with it.

[martinuzz]

They probably waited until they had a flight with both Prigozjin as well as Oetkin on it.

[Strongpoint]

Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.

[martinuzz]

Nice! Yesterday or two days ago, Ukraine also managed to destroy an S-400 installation in Crimea.
Imagine what they can do with HARM missiles once they get F16s

[King Zultan]

Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.

[Loud Whispers]

I can't believe how stupid Prigozhin was, if this story is anywhere near true. I mean, to do all the stuff he did in the past he did not have to be highly intelligent, but I always thought him to be quite cunning.

No matter how shrewd or cunning someone can be, no one is above making mistakes, especially when under stressful conditions and desperation

Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.

I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river, but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases. Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]

Trainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.

Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century

[Great Order]

Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.

One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.

[Frumple]

I can understand it's not one of those things you really engage with when it's happening, but... it's never struck me as a choice you can actually make, 'cause once you're dead there's little to nothing stopping them from killing your family anyway.

The kind of folks that would present you with that kind of choice... they're probably not going to leave loose ends once you're gone. So it's less "die or we kill your family" and more "do you want to be dead before or after we kill your family?" At least with after, you have some chance to enact some degree of retribution

[Random_Dragon]

it's never struck me as a choice you can actually make, 'cause once you're dead there's little to nothing stopping them from killing your family anyway.

Leonine bargains are just how Moscow rolls, it seems. And figures even their own pawns would forget how those work.

[Loud Whispers]

Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.

One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.

Six theories

1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.
2. Russian air defences saw a civilian airliner and decided to blow it up
3. Prigozhin wasn't on that plane and faked his death as part of an agreement with Putin to allow Putin to "deal with him" whilst Prigozhin is sipping mojitos in the bahamas and making albums with Tupac in Serbia.
4. Prigozhin faked his own death in order to lower Putin's guard and initiate his metal gear storyline
5. Prigozhin is as cunning and intelligent as you'd expect for a cocktail sausage maker cum warlord, so when ricin-stabbing polonium-tea giving novichok window friending Putin told him "nah it's cool brah half measures never backfire" he took Putin's word at it, because he and Putin are buddies. Honestly not that impossible. Especially since removing Sergei Surovikin, who was a suspected Prigozhin sympathiser and in charge of Russian air defences... One day before Russian air defences are suspected of shooting down Prigozhin, is a smoking gun.
6. Putin was genuinely sincere about his truce with Prigozhin, but one of the many warlords and defence ministers Prigozhin pissed off took it upon themselves to eliminate Prigozhin when the opportunity presented it, which puts Putin in a bind. Also possible, given that this could be someone taking advantage of Putin dismissing Surovikin, and the lack of a pre-prepared media spin or coherent narrative immediately after Prigozhin's death is pretty suspicious if Putin had truly planned this out over two months. It is a significant possibility this even surprised Putin, and he just has to own up to it because no one would believe him if he said it wasn't him anyways.

[Strongpoint]

I am offended that there is no "It was Ukrainian intelligence that planted a bomb" theory... After all, it is what Russian propaganda seems to hint at.


A good way to determine what happened is to wait and see if Russians will allow Embraer to examine the wreck. If not it will confirm a SAM missile.

[Starver]

It was clearly all an inverse of the plot of Capricorn One. The (secretly-)manned landing of Luna 25 went dreadfully wrong, so they have to fake the terrestrial death of the 'volunteer' astronauts to face-savingly explain their disappearance!

[EuchreJack]

Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.

I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river, but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases. Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]

Trainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.

Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century

Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.

[MorleyDev]

6. Putin was genuinely sincere about his truce with Prigozhin, but one of the many warlords and defence ministers Prigozhin pissed off took it upon themselves to eliminate Prigozhin when the opportunity presented it, which puts Putin in a bind. Also possible, given that this could be someone taking advantage of Putin dismissing Surovikin, and the lack of a pre-prepared media spin or coherent narrative immediately after Prigozhin's death is pretty suspicious if Putin had truly planned this out over two months. It is a significant possibility this even surprised Putin, and he just has to own up to it because no one would believe him if he said it wasn't him anyways.

FSB: "Putin, Prigozhin is dead."
Putin: "Ahhh, so the poisoned potato found it's mark I see."
FSB: "....Poisoned whatnow?"
Putin: "...What was that explosion just now?"

[Great Order]

1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.

Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.