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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0  (Read 241126 times)

martinuzz

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #930 on: June 26, 2023, 01:21:45 pm »

According to the Telegraph, one of the reasons Wagner backed down was because their leader's families were being threatened by the FSB.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/
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bloop_bleep

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #931 on: June 26, 2023, 01:43:57 pm »

According to the Telegraph, one of the reasons Wagner backed down was because their leader's families were being threatened by the FSB.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/

They probably did threaten their families. But I doubt that was the main reason he backed down.
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Cathar

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #932 on: June 26, 2023, 06:48:38 pm »

Honestly, the way I read it, Prigozhin wanted to stay independent. But not just recently, like over the past ten years or something.
He knew that if this military company was folded in, he would be on the chopping block.
Prigozhin is a siloviki who considers himself to be on the same level as or above the MoD and feels insulted when he receives orders. This is fine usually since his job is mostly doing wetwork in the third world, but when working alongside regular army this is chronically creating clashes. This is exacerbated by the fact his forces got wasted in a stupid engagement for prop reasons in Bakhmut and by other factors, such as Wagner absorbing MoD forces and vice versa.

Stuff that happend in the front were like, Prigozhin doesn't receive enough ammo, so he would absorb MoD squads and send them doing bayonet charges to test ukrainian lines or man trenches that were already filled with the corpses of previous russian squads (according to PoWs).

Prigozhin's behaviour is just prison behaviour. He is a thug, not a james bond villain.
He just vibe checked Putin with the express intent on making him his bottom boy. This is the only scenario that makes sense to me.

Lukachenko mastermind is a scenario I will never buy. Luka is not interested in Wagner nor he is in the war in general. His army is dogshit and specialized in riot control. He doesn't want to commit it, he doesn't want to pay the wages of a PMC.
Luka is a very reluctant participant, and having Prigozhin as a retainer puts a timer on his head.

Wagner attacks from Belarus ? Belarus de facto enters the conflict, which Luka tried his hardest to avoid. Prigozhin throws another tantrum ? Luka falls from a windows and Belarusians clap. This is a shit deal for him, and someone had to call in a favor for it.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2023, 06:54:13 pm by Cathar »
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King Zultan

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #933 on: June 27, 2023, 03:08:07 am »

send them doing bayonet charges to test ukrainian lines or man trenches that were already filled with the corpses of previous russian squads (according to PoWs).
Didn't know that Russia had devolved to using WW1 tactics.
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jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #934 on: June 27, 2023, 04:58:20 am »

Prugozin seems like he manage to stay alive, keep his company, and get the defense minister replaced with someone close to him.. And he is more popular in Russia than ever. I'd say it was a win for him.
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Jerick

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #935 on: June 27, 2023, 07:11:15 am »

That last part isn't true from what I can see. A lot of Wagnerites who followed him on this little mess feel intensely betrayed. They and their families have been very vocal online about how they stuck their neck out and all they got for it was a target painted on their backs. Most of them know they'll likely be the target of all the repercussions that Prigozhin dodges. And this negative attidude has from what I can tell spread pretty quickly even to non Wagner people. He was more popular than ever, then he folded and all that popularity started to ebb away.
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Cathar

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #936 on: June 27, 2023, 07:58:44 am »

That last part isn't true from what I can see. A lot of Wagnerites who followed him on this little mess feel intensely betrayed.
Yeah no shit. Storm Z published support video where they put their faces and names, which brand them as criminals. And there was the incident of actual prison riots in support of Wagner from prisonners betting on their success. Yeah they did feel betrayed and they did feel multiple hits from blunt items too.

As for a win for Prigozhin... I'm waiting to see. Right now he has been separated from his troops, is in a foreign country, and we don't know what kind of deal he has. The MoD is still in place and there is no sign Putin will uphold their part of whatever bargain they stroke... but even so, every win Prigozhin may have had, if any, was made in the expense of the Russian war effort, not the Ukrainian.

By that logic, you can frame the death(?) of Denimkhanov as a win for Wagner. Yeah sure, Akhmat lost its Commanding Officer, but Utkin won an internet argument, so it's technically a win.
And you have to factor in that Prigozhin allies, the Chechens (Khadirov called Prigozhin "big brother" a couple month ago) and the little green men from Donestk (Girkin shared his opinion on Shoigu and even considered joining Wagner), now hate his guts with a passion and very publicly want him dead. And good luck working with Shoigu now. So, maybe not a full win.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2023, 08:04:00 am by Cathar »
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jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #937 on: June 27, 2023, 08:01:59 am »

In a month they will be forgotten in all but the westren media.
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Cathar

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #938 on: June 27, 2023, 11:55:46 am »

The cost of training a pilot ranges between $2M and $10M. At least 13 of them died. Seven aircrafts, including one priceless Ilyushin Il - 22 mobile command center were killed. Infrastructural damage is also to be evaluated. And again : it happend with an ukrainian/NATO budget of $0. It is entierely free, lasting damage.

Doesn't matter if it's memory holed, people don't come back to life, the airforce doesn't get rebuild because people stop talking about it.

In other news Ukraine has established a foothold left of the Dnipr and starts to advance toward Crimea.

jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #939 on: June 27, 2023, 01:13:35 pm »

I disagree. Moreover while some think that Wagner days may be numbered, I think that it is just the beginning with big chance of Wagner becoming a huge thorn for us.

In other news Ukraine has established a foothold left of the Dnipr and starts to advance toward Crimea.
I heard about it a few days ago, but let see if it holds, this isn't the first attempt and logistics operation across the rivers are tough..
« Last Edit: June 27, 2023, 02:48:02 pm by jipehog »
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Funk

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #940 on: June 27, 2023, 02:54:53 pm »

Given as coups normally end with victory or a bullet in the head he's won.
He's now the man who would be czar.
Sat in exile with a loyal army.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #941 on: June 28, 2023, 01:45:44 am »

Given as coups normally end with victory or a bullet in the head he's won.
He's now the man who would be czar.
Sat in exile with a loyal army.

I am not sure about the loyal army bit. Mercs are not very loyal by definition AND Prigozhin chickened out in the last moment pissing a lot of ordinary Wagner fighters with more ideological motivation.
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King Zultan

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #942 on: June 28, 2023, 02:27:38 am »

I wonder how long Prigozhin has left to live.
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jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #943 on: June 28, 2023, 05:29:37 am »

I am not sure about the loyal army bit. Mercs are not very loyal by definition AND Prigozhin chickened out in the last moment pissing a lot of ordinary Wagner fighters with more ideological motivation.
In Ukraine Wagner had to recruit en mass from the bottom of the barrel, prior to that it was essentially Russian tool of influence built on a core of ideological Russia ex special force. Note that recently Prigozin said they opened recruitment centers all across Russia (reportedly some in schools) looking for young people preferably involved in sports to build a more ideological force.

Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2023, 05:36:58 am by jipehog »
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Cathar

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #944 on: June 28, 2023, 05:59:20 am »

Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
Well no. When the riots were occuring, we were very much focused on the enthousiasm they generated. Maybe you didn't follow the story very closely but people were expecting and preparing a change of regime in Moscow. In Rostov, people were clapping at and hailing Wagner as they disarmed the police and the local military. When the police came back to Rostov, they were greeted with stones and insults.
We talk about the "dellusioned people" because, in this case, they are the one who talk and they are representative of the general opinion (at least in Rostov and in the prisons of Moscow)

Also full disclaimer : Prigozhin head of state would have been a worldwide catastrophe. He is an uneducated prison stuffing with a big gun and Dmitry '"Wagner" Utkin (the CO and also the origin of the teams name) is an honest-to-god national socialist. Get these guys into power, and you will have pogroms in Russia.

But I'm let down that we didn't had a full on civil war that would have expedited peace in the country I actually care about.

Disclaimer 2 : I don't take my informations from "western medias" and I'm very aware of what various sources of russian propaganda are saying, and I include their take into account ; a significant part of the concerned parties are extremely angry at how the situation seemingly resolved independently of the takes of CNN or BBC
« Last Edit: June 28, 2023, 06:12:25 am by Cathar »
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