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[brewer bob]

'the FSB kills 13 pilots, downs 8 aircrafts, sabotage major highways, have Putin flee Moscow in an emergency to own NATO'

Perhaps it was just a ploy to give the world something to laugh at and make Putin look...weak?

[Cathar]

Perhaps it was just a ploy to give the world something to laugh at and make Putin look...weak?

"Appear smart when you are really retarded, and appear retarded when you are really smart" - Pu Tin, the art of the special military operation

Edit : At this point it doesn't matter if it's a ploy or not. The cost is just astronomical. Whatever can possibly be gained (?) from that shitshow will never outprice the cost of the mutiny.

[Jopax]

See, I don't think Prigozhin gets iced just yet. A promise of safety was made, and if Putin and co. are quick to break it, I'm guessing a good deal of the Wagnerites just up and starts causing shit again, while still heavily armed and equipped. Because at that point they most likely realize the same fate awaits them (as any further promises of safety are worse that worthless) so they might as well try and finish what was started with the slim chance of survival.

And if they try to disarm them anytime soon, I expect a similar reaction. Just shipping them off to Belarus and not touching them for the forseeable future seems like the safest bet all things considered. Because I seriously doubt there's enough trust left on either side for any sort of battlefield cooperation anytime soon.

And if Prigozhin starts shit in Belarus, maybe tries to oust Lukashenko then that gives Putin the perfect excuse to just pull out of Ukraine and devour Belarus under the pretense of getting rid of Wagner for good. Shit that might be the big 5head plan they're going for with this, who knows.

Things are way too fucky at the moment to be able to tell anything with certainty and will likely remain as such for a good long while.

[Lord Shonus]

There's no possible gain for either side of this dispute faking it. The most likely explanation is that this is a legitimate coup attempt in which neither side had confidence in victory.


The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.

[Grim Portent]

I'm wondering if the change of heart is the result of some sort of extravagant bribery behind the scenes, rather than just nominal clemency for the whole coup thing and an out on the contract to fight in Ukraine.

Prig's a mercenary after all, money is high on his list of priorities, possibly higher than sadism or vindictiveness.

[bloop_bleep]

There's no possible gain for either side of this dispute faking it. The most likely explanation is that this is a legitimate coup attempt in which neither side had confidence in victory.


The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.

This. According to ISW, Prigozhin faced an existential political threat from the MoD trying to pull Wagner out from under him. As a last ditch effort he tried to dismantle the MoD by force, but failed to secure enough defections for a sure victory. Now both sides feel threatened and so they sign a deal, where Prigozhin gets to keep some of Wagner and fight stops.

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine was not that far from similar shit around 2015-2016, when various volunteer* formations started getting way too much political weight. We managed to handle this with some units agreeing to become part of the Army or national guard (like Azov which lost its political far-right core), and some were disbanded. Not a trivial number of people ended up in prison during this process.

Russia tried to do the same, they wanted to force Wagner to become a regular part of the army and they failed

*which often meant funded by some oligarch

[MorleyDev]

The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.

Almost overthrowing your government by accident is probably the most 2020s thing I've ever heard...

[Strongpoint]

Head of the defense committee of the Russian Duma sees no reason to ban the Wagner group as 'they have not done anything wrong'.

LOL

[King Zultan]

This whole thing has been a bizarre shit show that seems to fit in quite well with all the other bizarre shit that's gone on during the whole war.

[Lidku]

What if Prigozhin backing down is just a juke, and he's planning something under the table?

[KittyTac]

Forget kleptocracy. We live in a coulrocracy. Rule by clowns.

[Strongpoint]

What if Prigozhin backing down is just a juke, and he's planning something under the table?

Looking back at some evidence, I believe that one of the reasons why Prigozhen folded is because he failed to get a truly good hand. The push to Moscow wasn't THAT quick and enough troops were transferred to Moscow (including by airlift) to stop a few thousand fighters rushing in.

Another important factor, not counting some very minor guys, no one supported Prigozhin. Yes, many were reluctant to obey orders (oh, I can only imagine all that sweet internal purging in the Russian military that is going right now) but it is not the same as joining.

Nevertheless, he had a good negotiating position to receive some guarantees.

1) His guys captured the supply and C&C Rostov hub, jeopardizing the war effort on the Donbas front and having resources to resist for a long time.
2) He captured several military airfields, threatening to destroy (or even use against Russia) substantial assets.
3) While taking Moscow (key buildings) was out of the question, the mere event of fighting there would be extremely damaging.
4) Ukrainian counter-offensive wasn't going anywhere. A few more days of chaos could cause a collapse on the frontlines


Lukashenka seems like the only true winner of this event, he got a personal army. They may have dubious loyalty but they are FAR better than Belarusian armed forces that can do nothing against Russia or even possible Belarusian uprising supported by, at the very least, Poland and Ukraine (and it will be supported, trust me)

[jipehog]

Prigozin where is my popcorn?!

[eerr]

Honestly, the way I read it, Prigozhin wanted to stay independent. But not just recently, like over the past ten years or something.
He knew that if this military company was folded in, he would be on the chopping block.
To avoid Putin forcing the move, he chose to rebel instead.

That's my guess at how the conflict started.

and everyone in Russia being afraid of the other guy checks out just fine.

That's what happens when you run a big, profit-oriented criminal organization, that people don't like.