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[Strongpoint]

Not really, it is very chaotic and full of disinfo and rumors and has yet to reach any official sources.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated - this Twitter account is rather good at finding interesting bits in Russian\Ukrainian Twitter\Telegramm and translating them to English

[jipehog]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Jerick]

CNN's live Ukraine update has this report on the base airstrike.
It has some juciy quotes from Prigozhin:

Many dozens, thousands of lives, of Russian soldiers will be punished," Prigozhin said. "I ask that nobody put up any resistance. Somewhere they will show such resistance, we will consider it a threat and destroy them immediately. This includes any roadblocks standing in our way, any aircraft seen over our heads."

He asked people to stay at home "along the path of our investigation."

Prigozhin said that by criticizing Russian military leadership, he is carrying out a "march of justice" and not a "military coup," alleging that a majority of Russian service members support Wagner. 

"Finally, you will make them supply us with ammunition and make them stop using us as cannon fodder," Prigozhin added.

Whatever is happening, something is going down at least.
Popcorn time!

[brewer bob]

Guardian on it:

In a series of extraordinary audio messages released late on Friday, Prigozhin appeared to declare war on the Russian military leadership.

“Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” he said.

“Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.

“I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.”

[Strongpoint]

"All patriots of Russia, true patriots of the country, go out into the streets, we will find weapons. This night we will solve the issue of traitors and criminals who disgraced Russia.  Their names are Shoigu, Gerasimov." - Prigozhin

Note that there is not a single negative word directed at Putin.

Edit: looks like this one is fake

[EuchreJack]

Maybe out of date, but: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."

[Cathar]

Wagner is marching on Moscow according to latest rumours. Lot of confusion, checkpoint raised around moscow, fire reported in St Petersburg, people are talking about a coup attempt.

Edit : shit, it's already old news. I don't have enough popcorn. Shoigu, Gerasimov, where is my f-ing popcorn

[jipehog]

Maybe out of date, but: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."

I don't believe this populist narrative for one bit. Putin decided to launch a military attack against Ukraine when it became clear to him that he did not have the political levers to bring about regime change there.

[lemon10]

Oh, its obvious nonsense and lies, but Russia's top brass lies all the time about everything, and its a lie he can get away with as it isn't targeting Putin.
Which is why IMHO this isn't a proper coup, he isn't going after Putin, he's going after the army leadership.

Although that doesn't mean he can't go try to kill Putin later once he takes over the army, which given how much Putlin likes to fragment military control and kill any successful general makes me imagine he must be pretty worried about this anyways.

[jipehog]

i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?

[martinuzz]

Russia is now trying to arrest Prigozjin and sue him for inciting mutiny.
Moscow and Rostov have entered 'plan stronghold'. The cities are on lockdown, no one goes in or out. FSB and special forces are called in to create roadblocks on the highway between Moscow and Rostov.  Police forces are on high alert to repel possible Wagner attacks.

Now would be a good time for a Ukrainian counter offensive

[Strongpoint]

i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?

It depends on his goals. If he really wants to just remove Shoigu from power and succeeds... nothing will change, except, perhaps, more professional people in charge of the Russian army.

If he wants to be a new Russian Tsar... Well, a lot will change.

I think his chances are not negligible, BTW. Not only he has a personal army, some army units may join him. Police, FSB and Russian National Guard can do nothing... And a lot of loyal to Shoigu troops are in Ukraine and can't be transferred fast enough,

[Cathar]

i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?

I don't have a doubt he can succed. The army is mobilized on the southern front, there's only the FSB, Rossguardia and riot control in front of him, and Wagner is known to be able to manhandle actual russian military formations in actual conflict. If he can make a dash to the Kremlin before reserves can be gathered, dreams may come true.

As for what happening, we don't know. Prigozhin doesn't seem to have a lot of political wants, aside of more power to himself. It depends on why he is doing this ; either he is used by Putin/ acts out of loyalty to reject the blame on the MoD in which case he will just organize a ministery turnover, or he has been bought by foreign agents and he will end the war.

In his last speech, he may clear that he think Putin is fed "lies and misinformations", "the war is fake" and built on the premise that Ukraine bombed Dombas for 8 years, whereas this is a lie.


Edit : Belarusian dictator Lukashenko flees Minsk in plane

[Jerick]

His not blaming Putin is I think is him trying to be populist. Putin's still pretty popular with the general Russian population for some reason. So he's paying Putin a little lipservice while he's in open rebellion to try and get the people on his side. There's no way he doesn't know this move burns any and all bridges between him and Putin. Putin's way too paranoid for this to just forgive this kind of thing. There's no going back. He either takes power or he loses.

[Strongpoint]

Kadyrov is absolutely silent, I think he is waiting to see who is winning.