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[jipehog]

So what is the latest on our raiding party?

A lot of fog of war and disinformation from both sides, both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom Legion claim that they are still there. Russians, of course,  claim that EVERYONE was killed.  Russians also presented photos of some captured American-made MRAPs but considering that those are in rather good condition and with no corpses attached, those are suspicious.

Here is my take:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Russia have ended its anti-terrorist operation regime. I am inclined to believe that Russia did destroy several vehicles (not all that was shown) but I have yet to see evidence of anyone killed. I am inclined to believe that at least of the groups has safely crossed back. The other is currently claims that they still advancing in Russia.

Regardless, I love that Russia get to enjoy its own brew of "gray zone" tactics. And glad that Russian red lines are slowly eroding and hope that soon more serious fighting can be taken to Russia proper.

Edit:

In a recent interview, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner lost 20K KIA in the battle for Bakhmut: 10K of core fighters and 10K of convicts. Also, he claimed 50K KIA on the Ukrainian side to make it sound like an epic victory.

He also seem to admit that Russia's plan to 'demilitarize' Ukraine Has failed. And that: "We are at such a point that we could f**king lose Russia -- that is the main problem.... We need to impose martial law," 

I love this guy, he does to much damage Russian best laid propaganda efforts, however, he is also dangerous I hope that if worse for Russia does comes he get thrown out of the window.

Edit2: Here is part of Prigozin interview for fun: https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/anzEXEB_460svav1.mp4

[EuchreJack]

It'll be like "War bonds", I suppose. Betting on the investment going good due to the war special military operation not going completely about-face.

The market will be within Russia, probably, where the hope/belief in their legitimacy will be the greatest. Or someone forced to 'do a Musk' and put previously promised moneys where their mouth is ("You do believe in our government, don't you? And you with still a spare billion or two in the banks that we haven't yet 'pursuaded' you to donate. And what would be better than some prime real-estate in a traditionally quite nice area...")


At a long-shot, maybe someone like the Chinese State could be pursuaded to lay claim, if it's handy for (future) use. But that's a dangerous game given how China is effectively "lend-leasing" its way into so many third-world territories, grabbing its B&R system back. Would they consider the opportunity of going straight to (nominal) ownership, with contingency if it turns out to be a reclaimed lemon?

I could see People's Republic of China buying up some of the land, putting their people on the land, then forcing the victor to either negotiate with them or evict them.

If they don't buy enough, it just might end up being China's embassy in Ukraine after the War.

It would probably benefit Russia to let China buy as much property as China wants.

[Starver]

It would be tricky, certainly, to have an exclave of China established like that. I suppose how it gets dealt with by Ukraine might colour that particular future of political bilateralism.

Though I think that's not the more obvious outcome. More likely that some oligarch is invited to exchange ready cash for some place they can build a sprawling low-rise[1] dacha on, for the good of their health. One way or another.

[1] No high windows, certainly.

[Jopax]

Yeah fairly certain Ukraine could just go "Any land exchanges made while the region was under hostile occupation are null and void" before returning shit to its previous state.

Also what exactly would China stand to gain from such a purchase, other than a shitton of bad blood with Ukraine and bad press around the world. If Russia loses it will be in a position where China doesn't need to cozy up to them or even pretend they're anything other than their bitch at that point.

[Strongpoint]

So the raid in the Belgorod region is officially over. It was a weird one for sure. I don't think that it was a huge success in terms of actual damage to Russian forces but the propaganda value is high and it will likely force Russians to keep more forces on the border.

One thing I really dislike is that they used American MRAPs and lost some of them there. I somehow suspect that the USA never gave permission of using American gear for this kind of operation.

[EuchreJack]

Yeah fairly certain Ukraine could just go "Any land exchanges made while the region was under hostile occupation are null and void" before returning shit to its previous state.

Also what exactly would China stand to gain from such a purchase, other than a shitton of bad blood with Ukraine and bad press around the world. If Russia loses it will be in a position where China doesn't need to cozy up to them or even pretend they're anything other than their bitch at that point.

Well, things are never quite that simple.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law, after all.

Mostly, it would be a foothold that People's Republic of China could use as leverage. China could even get GOOD relations by turning it over to Ukraine and claiming they were "just holding it" until Ukraine restored it's sovereign breakaway province, being sympathetic to that sort of thing.

So the raid in the Belgorod region is officially over. It was a weird one for sure. I don't think that it was a huge success in terms of actual damage to Russian forces but the propaganda value is high and it will likely force Russians to keep more forces on the border.

One thing I really dislike is that they used American MRAPs and lost some of them there. I somehow suspect that the USA never gave permission of using American gear for this kind of operation.

Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.

While I bemoan US equipment ending up in Russian hands, it's really not different from when it's used officially by Ukraine, just the risks are higher. Hopefully, the rebels blew up enough stuff to make it worthwhile. It also highlights how important it is for Russia to keep forces off the front lines to stop that sort of thing in the future.

[Strongpoint]

Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.

Yes, but we have more than enough local\captured Russian equipment to use. I don't understand why those weren't used instead. Don't think that it is that big of a deal but it looks like a mistake and I think there was\will be an angry private request to not do this anymore.

Known equipment losses are there - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/the-ballad-of-belgorod-listing.html  (Oryx is so epic). There are also rumors that a valuable Russian R-330ZH Zhitel truck-mounted jamming communication station was captured during the raid but I have seen no reliable proof of this. + Russian border control post is looted of everything valuable including an undisclosed number of POWs

[jipehog]

I don't think it is an issue. That is hardly the first westerns combat vehicles get captured by Russia (just wait until the first images of German and USA tanks get published). Also I suspect USA didn't ask.

Known equipment losses are there - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/the-ballad-of-belgorod-listing.html  (Oryx is so epic).

I am not sure how accurate this list though. Do they do any verification except image comparison and possibly geolocation? The one I do trust is the destroyed vehicles left in front of the building, there is collaborating video of these from before. Not sure about captured vehicles either from video I saw at least on of the groups hiked back on foot to Ukraine.

[MaxTheFox]

They did good. The intent was always more to cause psychological damage afaik.

[jipehog]

Things certainly gone far from Russia's Kyiv in three days to we need to arm people in Russia to defend our borders

[King Zultan]

Starting to look like it'll be down hill for Russia form here.

[Strongpoint]

I changed my signature here on the first days of the war. I was pessimistic, I expected a far worse course of the war. I expected Russia to gain total air supremacy and turn ALL Ukrainian cities into ruins. I expected a gradual fall-back of our forces with an eventual transition to guerilla warfare with maybe some front in Western Ukraine

But even then I had not a single doubt that Russia made an irreversible step to its destruction.

[jipehog]

Starting to look like it'll be down hill for Russia form here.

Lets hope so, but its best not to underestimate any enemy, let alone Russia. Despite some very good indicators for Ukraine, I am still uncertain about Ukraine ability to push out Russia certainly in the near term.

Speaking of Lukashenko says Russia Has Begun Moving Nuclear Weapons to Belarus

[jipehog]

Sing Along: The Really Bad People Song | PUPPET REGIME
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn8icDIYNd4

The ZSU Present: Taking out the Trash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCja2kOCvfw

[King Zultan]

Speaking of Lukashenko says Russia Has Begun Moving Nuclear Weapons to Belarus

Well that certainly doesn't sound good, hopefully it's just some bullshit or cardboard cut outs.