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[KittyTac]

How key of a city is Bakhmut?

[Starver]

Ask different people, and you'll get different attitudes, motives and intensities. But perhaps, to misquote Wilde, "there's one thing worse than being fought over, and that is not being fought over".

Both sides (or at least their higher-ups, whatever those on the scene may think) seem to class it as a key objective, whether as a strategic aim, a stop-line or just the more obvious spot of land (amongst a whole front line of churned fields and blasted trees) where being entirely pock-marked with craters is preferable to a single bootprint being left upon it by The Enemy.


Not wanting to speak (again) on behalf of those with vastly more interest in the outcome, in any authoritative manner, just making broad-sweep statements to fill the gap/summarise prior comments.

[Telgin]

According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.

This is surprising.  I thought I'd read several times recently that Ukraine had retaken parts of the city.  Or well, what's left of where the city used to be.

[jipehog]

You could say that strictly military speaking Bakhmut has no strategic value. Russian numerous claims to capture Bakhmut have propaganda value, but practicly 500m here or there its all part of the same obstacle course with fireworks showering from Chasiv Yar.

According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.

Seem like it, here is the deep state map changes over this period:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Personally, I don't think that the counter offensive would materialize in Bakhmut, seem like the least advantageous place for it. I believe that Ukraine goal to stay in Bakhmut was to keep Russia engaged. If so then it works, Russia still expands resources and has pulled many reserves to support Bakhmut. Meanwhile the threat of encirclement from few month ago is gone and Ukrainian position is secure.

[Maximum Spin]

Bakhmut is a crucial logistic chokepoint for Russia, mainly. If they can hold enough ground to keep the rail station out of effective artillery range, it gives them pretty much unfettered logistic access to several important target cities.

[jipehog]

I agree, it is important for Russian plans, but otherwise there are several cities that seem far more important. For Russia Bakhumt is a stepping stone like Svatove would for Urkaine. And it is still within the 20-30km of 155mm artillery shells from Chasiv Yar.

Rail map:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Lord Shonus]

Bakhmut is a crucial logistic chokepoint for Russia, mainly. If they can hold enough ground to keep the rail station out of effective artillery range, it gives them pretty much unfettered logistic access to several important target cities.

Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.

[Strongpoint]

It is so morbidly hilarious how vatniks celebrate this glorious victory of taking (remains of) a 70K city after 9 months of fighting that took lives of tens of thousands...


Bakhmut already entered new Ukrainian mythology and is going to stay there. Russians will forget about it in a few weeks.

[jipehog]

Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.

Why?

Edit: btw, on unrelated matter, I just realized that Ukraine rail network is using the broad gauge like Russia.

[Maximum Spin]

Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.

I have no idea why you think this. It's now an extremely efficient opening toward conquering that territory.

I mean this is like saying "Ha! Now that the poison needle is through my skin, it has to travel through all my veins, and those are in my body!"

[Lord Shonus]

A huge goal of any military campaign is putting forces across the roads or rails that your enemy wants to use. That is because it is impossible to use that route unless you have already cleared the enemy off of it. Note that a major Ukrainian goal in the next offensive is likely to be doing just that to the main overland artery into Crimea.

Most of the routes from Bakhmut have Ukrainian forces sitting on them. Therefore they are of absolutely zero use to Russia unless an offensive - a very large-scale offensive - removes said offensive. This isn't an RTS game where you take the supply point and suddenly get +4 to supply - you have to have the ability to move thing between one supply nexus and the other. Russia has a route into Bakhmut, but they don't have any secured routes out. They did have those routes when the battle for the city began.

[Maximum Spin]

You're the one who seems to be thinking in terms of a video game, because you're treating it like everything has to move fully "between one supply nexus and the other". Trains and trucks can stop. That means men and materiel can now move into Bakhmut, and all the fronts along the rail and roads coming out are now supplied by rail and road. Which tends to make those fronts move forward.

Yes, that means an offensive, which is to be expected, given that this is a war and both sides have been making offensives. Conquering things requires attacking. The point is that the logistic support makes those offensives more effective.

It also looks like you're mostly wrong about the routes from Bakhmut having Ukrainian forces sitting on them, but as the most important route is probably going to be the one to the north, it's not that important.

[Starver]

Edit: btw, on unrelated matter, I just realized that Ukraine rail network is using the broad gauge like Russia.

Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)

What I find funny is that, right now, the Ukrainian rail system is considered more reliable and useful than the British one (it was before the war, but still active conflict is being handled better than pay/working-conditions disputes over here).

[jipehog]

Prigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tactic

That's a mental image I wasn't ready for.

That what he said.  Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is broken
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403124/

Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)

Yeah I knew it, but somehow I didn't think of it until now; Nice map; and that is what happens when you move from the universal horse ass measurement.

[King Zultan]

Prigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tactic

That's a mental image I wasn't ready for.

That what he said.  Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is broken
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403124/

His body wasn't troops weren't ready.