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[Lord Shonus]

Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.

Meanwhile, the CNN article was based on anonymous sources, but the UK has now confirmed the reports.
https://news.sky.com/story/storm-shadow-uk-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-defence-secretary-confirms-12878298

The UK is sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed.

The minister said that Storm Shadows missiles will be provided to Ukraine's military.

Sky News understands that some of the missiles are already in Ukraine - with Mr Wallace saying the projectiles "are now going into or are in the country itself."

Ukraine has long been calling for such weapons, but the US and other countries have been unwilling to supply them in case strikes inside Russia lead to escalation.

[martinuzz]

Let's hope that this will convince the US to supply longer range missiles as well!

[jipehog]

Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid.  Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.

Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.

For perspective, country populations:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.

My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate?  That said the more options the better.

[Loud Whispers]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.html

The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

This may have a major impact.

Noice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you

[Lord Shonus]

My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate?  That said the more options the better.

One of the biggest threats to Ukrainian aircraft is apparently Mig-31 Foxhounds firing the new AA-13 Axehead missile, which has a range of possibly as high as 400 kilometers and is one of the few newer Russian weapons that actually works. Shorter range AAMs and SAM systems are also a real threat over the Russian lines. This means that even with long-range cruise missiles, there's severe constraints on what kind of targets can be safely serviced.

[scriver]

Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid.  Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.

Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.

For perspective, country populations:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.

My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate?  That said the more options the better.

I'm really glad they gave the Czech Republic two lines there or I might never have been able to guess which country it was with just a Cze there

[Strongpoint]

My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate?  That said the more options the better.

One of the biggest threats to Ukrainian aircraft is apparently Mig-31 Foxhounds firing the new AA-13 Axehead missile, which has a range of possibly as high as 400 kilometers and is one of the few newer Russian weapons that actually works. Shorter range AAMs and SAM systems are also a real threat over the Russian lines. This means that even with long-range cruise missiles, there's severe constraints on what kind of targets can be safely serviced.

Them outraging our old AA missiles with their newer ones is a problem, but an even larger problem is that Mig-29's radar simply can't see at those distances and has no idea that it is targeted or that enemy aircraft are even there. It forces pilots to rely on info from ground-based radars and it is far from ideal.

[Lord Shonus]

Quite. It is a very severe hindrance to combat operations, which is why the few Mig-31s that have gone down are such a big deal.

[Strongpoint]

Quite. It is a very severe hindrance to combat operations, which is why the few Mig-31s that have gone down are such a big deal.

Our pilots name SU-35s (that can use the very R-37M missiles) as the main adversary. Mig-31s are relatively univloved

[EuchreJack]

Huzzah, it has begun!
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/11/europe/bakhmut-counterattacks-underway-intl/index.html

[Strongpoint]

I have too many friends (and my brother) in that area to feel enthusiastic. I am so scared... pray to not know this kind of fear.

But yep, it has started. I think it is only an appetizer and the main strike will be elsewhere. Still, it is enough to send Vatnik segments of all Social Media into a panic mode

[jipehog]

Some nice propaganda value, but I think people should prepare for a long-haul with more such attacks across the whole front until they commit.


Speaking of Imagine Dragons - Crushed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSav7HayxtI

[jipehog]

A planned counteroffensive against Russian forces will have to wait until the military has had more time to prepare, Zelenskyy said.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-counteroffensive-needs-time-zelenskyy-says/a-65588225

[Great Order]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.html

The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.

This may have a major impact.

Noice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you

The only ways I can see it escalating are moving to CBRN or insensate civilian reprisals (As in "Fuck all of you, we're just going to slaughter you en-masse" rather than "Civilian, military, who cares?"). What else are they going to do, war harder?

[Loud Whispers]

Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?