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[Strongpoint]

I have a feeling that instability is growing in the "Post-Soviet" space.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to an even bigger war than in 2020

Weird stuff is happening in Moldova, I think it is likely that it will be involved in the Ukrainian war in one way or another soon.

Georgia... The situation there reminds Ukraine 2014. A LOT. Corrupt Pro-Russian government pushes the country closer and closer to Russia while talking about wanting to move towards EU. There is even a direct parallel Saakashvili-Tymoshenko. Right now, there are clashes with riot police in Tbilisi and even if this episode won't explode into a major crisis, I am sure that it will come later. To make matter worse, many "anti-war" (aka I want to see Ukraine destroyed ASAP but I value my life and don't want to be drafted) Russians fled to Georgia. I would be shocked if FSB didn't infiltrate a lot of agents using this situation.

Don't know much about Central Asia, but I heard that they started to feel the effects of the Russian recession on their own economies

[Grim Portent]

The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them.

Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.

The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.

[EuchreJack]

The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them.

Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.

The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.

It does reek of warlordism. A further breakup Russia is likely.

[jipehog]

Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.

The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.

Moronic? I would say the exact opposite. PMCs allowed Russia a modicum of plausible deniability, operating with almost no oversight or effective legal constraints and have been very effective (and still are in Africa) in pursue Russian objectives in more overt terms because only an idiot would engage the one holding the biggest stick with traditional means.

Also FYI most countries use some variant of mercs, at one point USA had in Iraq almost as many PMCs as regular soldiers (iirc close to 100k, which more than what Wagner have atm)

Edited.

[EuchreJack]

Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.

The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.

Moronic? I would say the exact opposite. PMCs allowed Russia a modicum of plausible deniability, operating with almost no oversight or effective legal constraints and have been very effective (and still are in Africa) in pursue Russian objectives in more overt terms because only an idiot would engage the one holding the biggest stick with traditional means.

Also FYI most countries use some variant of mercs, at one point USA had in Iraq almost as many PMCs as regular soldiers (iirc close to 100k, which more than what Wagner have atm)

Edited.

Yes, but in the US, all the PMCs were under the control of the same person. By which I mean, Shadow Vice President Dick Cheney.

[lemon10]

Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.

The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.

This isn't a bug, its a feature.
Putin has deliberately broken up the army into multiple different competing structures so that no one group or leader can amass enough power to meaningfully challenge or (god forbid) overthrow him.

This fragmentation weakens the military power of Russia of course, but a weaker Russian military is less of an problem to Putin then getting lined up against the wall by a firing squad and shot.

[EuchreJack]

It also reminds me of the beginning of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms and the background to the Sengoku Period of Japan...

[Loud Whispers]

What is long divided must unite

What is long united must divide

[heydude6]

Post to watch

[King Zultan]

We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.

Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?

[KittyTac]

We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.

Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?

Nah if the war starts early I'll just leave, I'm close to a border with a neutral country so it'll be fine.

[brewer bob]

Joining the post to watch crew.

[EuchreJack]

Unfortunately, the thread move means everyone has to subscribe to the new thread. But hopefully we can now alternate between the two in the future. If I can remember the old one exists...

[Strongpoint]

So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.

Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.

[Loud Whispers]

So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.

Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.

Aw shit, here we go again

>Russian military occupation of territory
>pro-Russian government baits population with talks of EU membership but balks
>protests in the street against pro-Russian government