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[KittyTac]

Not sure if he'd be worse, but this was a case of one neofascist trying to overthrow another neofascist. He certainly wouldn't be any better.

He is... marginally more competent at both military matters and statecraft. iirc

Which, as a proud traitor, I don't want.

[Strongpoint]

It could be so much more but it is still a positive event. Putin failed to squash the mutiny and ended it with negotiations, he has shown weakness something dictators shouldn't do.

[bloop_bleep]

He backed down. But this really, really reminds me of Kornilov's coup attempt in 1917, which kind of was... a catalyst for you-know-what.

He backed down because he got what he was after, I mean.

[jipehog]

So now what. What will this 25k force do? Go to Africa curve Russian interests there? Stay to counter balance Poland?

Note that there have been talk for month about Prigozhins political ambition, prior to the end of Bakhmut fighting he said that he is planning to reduce its activity going back to working in the grey zone, saying that wagner will transform into some sort of ideological army. And we assumed that it would be something todo with Ukraine.

[King Zultan]

Well damn I was hoping those wankers Wagner guys would do something.

[Cathar]

Well damn I was hoping those wankers Wagner guys would do something.

You're not the only one. And some other people who did are extremely pissed because they deserted their units, shown their faces and published their support for the mutiny.

[Strongpoint]

Oh, it is very fun time in Russia now, all those who deserted, who disobeyed orders, and even those who stayed silent will face purges that will make the Russian army less effective (at least short term)

BTW, Kadyrov is either smarter than we give him credit for or it is idiot's luck. He demonstrated loyalty to Putin and I am sure he will get sone perks for this.

[Cathar]

Not really, Kadyrov got stuck in traffic and his twitter stated that due to a "technical incident" he would be unable to stop Wagner. He was never to join the mutiny due to the very public spat between Dmitry Utkin and Adam Delimkhanov, in which Adam died or was severely injured.
At this point Russia cannot even afford to discipline its troops so partaking to the mutiny was not that big of a deal, and even if Kadyrov was playing tricks for treat, his master is out of food to give him anyway

[scriver]

Why in the world would Lukashenko do that though. Has anyone confirmed with him that he is OK with this because it seems like inviting his own demise, literally. And from what I understand about him, quite out of character?

I mean I know he's a Russian satellite and firmly under their influence as far as allies goes and I'm not saying he's not. But docs I've watched about him has gone on about the relationship between Putty and Luka not just being an overlord-puppet one and that Lukashenko has made sure that he is the one in charge Belarus not just as a figurehead but de facto as well, so that Russia has to go through him rather than over him. Was all that just overhyped?

[Cathar]

The whole situation looks scrambled and panicky. Shoigu and Gerasimov are getting the boot, and Putin's bodyguard and Surovikin are to replace them. Luka mastermind is a scenario that convinces absolutely no one who ever heard him speak, I suppose he's just the name holder for a FSB emergency fix or something similar.
It's disapointing but the situation is a good new overall. The chain of command is totally scrambled, soldiers are pissed at their command, supply lines are disrupted, 7 aircraft downed, 13 pilot killed and Wagner perma-disabled. That's good value for $0 spent.

[Stench Guzman]

Live footage of the Prigozhin coup:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[hector13]

Putin is going to reassert his power.

Prigozhin dies within the week?

[KittyTac]

Putin is going to reassert his power.

Prigozhin dies within the week?

He will suddenly be found dead from two gunshot wounds to the back of the head. Cause of death: suicide.

[The_Explorer]

My friend thinks the whole thing was some kind of huge ploy, he isn't sure a ploy for what or why, but was entirely planned out.

My opinion is...I probably kinda agree with my friend. The whole thing was really weird. The start was weird, the end was weirder. They take over bases, head to moscow...and...then...nothing.

The only way I can see it wasn't a ploy and the whole thing wasn't some weird plan for whatever reason...is if it was a "comedy" and they were just really all drunk and it was like some huge rave going on and random russians were joining in. So in a drunken rave, they all decided to lets have some fun and take over yeah! but then they got sober and realized that wasnt a good idea. Thats all I can imagine if it wasn't some weird ploy/setup/planned. Otherwise the whole thing is too weird.

[Cathar]

Doesn't look like a ploy at all, or if it is, everything is potentially a ploy. The whole thing is wierd only if you missed the escalation between Prigozhin and Utkin, and the MoD and the Chechens respectively. Again, Utkin is responsible for the likely death of Adam Denimkhanov, number 2 of Akhmat, and Wagner and the MoD army are known to exchange artillery strikes on each other positions since last month, this is not "out of the blue"

'A warlord vibe checks his employers' is a far more likely explanation than 'the FSB kills 13 pilots, downs 8 aircrafts, sabotage major highways, have Putin flee Moscow in an emergency to own NATO'