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[brewer bob]

Edit : Belarusian dictator Lukashenko flees Minsk in plane

Wait, what?

[Cathar]

Kadyrov is absolutely silent, I think he is waiting to see who is winning.

Honestly I think he's trying to learn how to lace his shoes.

His not blaming Putin is I think is him trying to be populist.

Yeah, the boyars are bad but the Tsar is good, the good old russian song and dance.
But yeah it's either that, or he is teleguided by Putin. Man I can't wait to see that situation develop

Wait, what?

Luka is reported to have boarded a plane at midnight and to have left the capitale.

[da_nang]

Until more information is confirmed, I'm going to pessimistically assume it's a smokescreen. Perhaps they'll use the "chaos" to deny giving an order to blow up the nuclear power plant or the Kyiv dam.

[jipehog]

Yeah I can't loose the feeling that it is too good to be true. The cynic in me worried that its ploy with some creative solution to get Russia out of its predicament.

[EuchreJack]

It seems to be too much to be a bluff, and Russia's response is similar to how they address all internal dissent. Deny it's existence, and control the narrative.

I suspect Wagner/Prigozhin is pulling this out of desperation. There is probably some evidence they received that the Kremlin was looking to remove Prigozhin somehow, so they had to attack when their chance was the best.

[Jerick]

I can't see this being some kind of cunning plan. The people in charge of Russia are deathly afraid of doing anything, anything, that makes them look weak. This makes the Russian government and Russia as a whole look very weak. They're also normally very sloppy with their staged provocations and propaganda. This time round I'm hearing about raids on Wagner offices in Russia, banning the reporting on any of his statements, actual deployments and roadblocks going up. All of this from a nation that couldn't stop Western powers running off to tell Ukraine what they were about to do every time they tried something before the people implementing it even received their orders. But this time they were able to coordinate a smokescreen of this size and complexity without being rumbled? No I'm convinced this is real. How effective it'll be I don't know. But I'm sure it's not an act.

[Strongpoint]

Imagine how scared OMON is. They are used to beat peaceful protesters with zero resistance... Now they are on the streets of Moscow waiting for armed professional killers

[jipehog]

MOD just reported that OMON has destroyed 87k wagner fighters, 760 tanks and 100 stormshadows 

[Strongpoint]

2021: Russian army is 2nd in the world!
2022: Russian army is 2nd in Ukraine!
2023: Russian army is 2nd in Russia!

[EuchreJack]

MOD just reported that OMON has destroyed 87k wagner fighters, 760 tanks and 100 stormshadows

I never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.

[jipehog]

Joking aside, according to my source they operated armor, artillery, helicopters and even planes (at some point). With more elite forces on the level of tier 1 operators than some Russian ones..  We are talking about a huge organization! Going by its claimed salaries etc its estimated they spend hundreds of millions $ just on salaries, and many times more for ammo, fuel etc supplies. And that just in Ukraine, reportedly they also operate in Africa..

It is a curious question who pays the bills.. is it just Prigozin or does have backers with deep pockets among the Siloviki.

[nenjin]

I think the baseline scenario should he succeed, is complete pandemonium for a week in Russia until a new security apparatus can be installed to establish order.

[Cathar]

It is a curious question who pays the bills.. is it just Prigozin or does have backers with deep pockets among the Siloviki.

Prigozhin has a lot of very rich friends. He's an oligarch, and his business has a lot of clients. Tho it's pretty clear part of their stipend comes from the State - but here's the catch : his clients are interested in taking over the State too.

I never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.

Lol Wagner has an airforce, tanks are nothing. They are a professional army. Not on the US level (when they tried to fight the US in a covert operation in Syria they got their butt handed to them) but it is by far the most experienced currently active russian formation, outperforming the VDV by far.

Speaking about the musician, they are currently in Rostov-On-Don. If they take the oblast, they will control the supply route of the whole army.

Whatever happens now it is looking good. Even if Prigozhin fails, get captured and Wagner is dismantled, the balance on the front will change in favor of the UA. Even if, in the best case scenario, it was just a big troll (which it pretty much cannot be anymore at this point) demoralization of RU soldiers would have had an effect in the mist of Ukrainian counter attack.

Either way it is going, this is very very very good.

[KittyTac]

Invade us from the west,  Freedom-of-Russia-Legion-daddy. 😳

[MaxTheFox]

The dumbest fucking thing is that in my setting's timeline (finalized during mid-2022), Russia would have a civil war in September 2023.

Now there's one in fucking June. I'm like the modern Nostradamus (because I also predicted "pseudosapient AI").

I can only hope for actual rebels to crop up amid the chaos.