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[Strongpoint]

Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?

It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.

[EuchreJack]

Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?

It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.

Thankfully, Russian military prowess has deteriorated so much since WWIl that they can't even see a classic pincher...

[EuchreJack]

What I need is a classic DF meme of a Mountainhome city precariously held over a chasm by a single pillar, with a dwarf Ukrainian standing next to a lever.

[Strongpoint]

I like how Wagner roleplays 6th German army (but with way more war crimes) and other Russian in the area roleplay 3rd and 4th Romanian armies. I hope they'll roleplay to the end.

[scriver]

Are these the armies that ravaged Ukraine during the war?

[Strongpoint]

Are these the armies that ravaged Ukraine during the war?

Nah, It is from the Battle of Stalingrad. German flanks were guarded by (mostly) Romanians who lacked training, morale, and equipment to do anything meaningful against Soviet armored strikes and prevent the German 6th army from being surrounded. The lack of proper German divisions was one of the main reasons why Stalingrad was such a disaster.

Russia is in a similar situation, while they still have very dangerous combat-capable units like Wagner or paratroopers or tank armies, the bulk of their new army is comprised of hastily trained mobilized who are armed with old Soviet weapons. 

[jipehog]

It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.

According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off Wagner Group penal recruitment efforts, which likely prompted Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.[5] The Russian MoD briefly allocated more resources to the Bakhmut front line in March and April by sending T-90 tanks and Russian Airborne (VDV) forces to the Bakhmut area and assigning mobilized reservists to Wagner, however.[6] Prigozhin claimed on April 24 that the Russian MoD only deployed irregular and degraded units to hold Bakhmut’s flanks, and the inability of these units to fulfill even this limited mission indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similarly-manned areas of the front are likely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.[7] The MoD’s allocation of forces combined with changes in the geometry of the battlespace also suggests that the danger of a Russian encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut may have passed. Wagner forces will likely continue conducting frontal assaults in Bakhmut, which would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct organized withdrawals from threatened areas in a shallower partial envelopment rather than facing encirclement on a large scale.

If so, what value those flanks hold for them? On a defensive such a bulge only increase the front and make them more vulnerable.

----
Edit: For Ukrainians it seem like a good move, which exploit Russian vulnerability, secures their position and reestablish control of local roads. Whether that would develop to something else around Bakhmut i unknow atm (maybe they will push kurdiumivka first?)

----
Edit2:
I agree with understandingwar assessment of Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric being seriously disturbing to the top leadership of Russia. He is doing so much damage.  Also: https://streamable.com/y2cqj2

[Loud Whispers]

It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.

There is even an unconfirmed report that a Belarusian officer fighting for the Ukrainians managed to trick Russian artillery into shelling Russian lines using a captured radio. They seem keen to not just waste ammunition but also the scant few organised units they have left

[jipehog]

There are claims that ADM-160_MALD decoy missile is in use in Ukraine. Any other info about or estimate on how useful it would be?

[Starver]

There are claims that ADM-160_MALD decoy missile is in use in Ukraine. Any other info about or estimate on how useful it would be?

Theoretically, multiple uses. Both in decoy mode and (if one of the relevent versions) running its electronics package as an active jammer.

Or even get the enemy used to 'obvious' decoys, which they can (and want to) do little about... before running a false-decoy that's actually the real thing doing real stuff.

Though I'm imagining far more devious uses, and also plenty of alternate ways to do the above (with the right kit, which I wouldn't expect to know the specifics of who has what... Some people with actual jobs in this field probably have even wilder (but more accurate/enactable) imaginations, though.

[EuchreJack]

It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.

According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off Wagner Group penal recruitment efforts, which likely prompted Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.[5] The Russian MoD briefly allocated more resources to the Bakhmut front line in March and April by sending T-90 tanks and Russian Airborne (VDV) forces to the Bakhmut area and assigning mobilized reservists to Wagner, however.[6] Prigozhin claimed on April 24 that the Russian MoD only deployed irregular and degraded units to hold Bakhmut’s flanks, and the inability of these units to fulfill even this limited mission indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similarly-manned areas of the front are likely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.[7] The MoD’s allocation of forces combined with changes in the geometry of the battlespace also suggests that the danger of a Russian encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut may have passed. Wagner forces will likely continue conducting frontal assaults in Bakhmut, which would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct organized withdrawals from threatened areas in a shallower partial envelopment rather than facing encirclement on a large scale.

If so, what value those flanks hold for them? On a defensive such a bulge only increase the front and make them more vulnerable.

----
Edit: For Ukrainians it seem like a good move, which exploit Russian vulnerability, secures their position and reestablish control of local roads. Whether that would develop to something else around Bakhmut i unknow atm (maybe they will push kurdiumivka first?)

----
Edit2:
I agree with understandingwar assessment of Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric being seriously disturbing to the top leadership of Russia. He is doing so much damage.  Also: https://streamable.com/y2cqj2

If I believed the Russians capable of strategic thinking, I would be looking for their troop movements elsewhere.
Throw trash at Bakhmut, press on Bakhmut, oh look at Bakhmut....then attack elsewhere.

There is also the Paper Tiger scenario, where Russia engages in a high visibility, low resource conflict over Bakhmut. They always have more troops to die valiantly. They're not getting those tanks back.

[jipehog]

@Starver, I am wondering if the low unit cost is accurate (just 30k) if so given sufficient numbers it can be used for the same purpose Russia used the Iranian drones, to saturate air defense and expand Russian stock of missiles e.g. I doubt Russia have many of its AA-13 Axehead left or at least many in the air on any given patrol.

edit: added the bold part.

[Strongpoint]

The role of these decoys is to increase the chances of hitting valuable targets by overloading enemy SAM systems with too many targets. It is how they were used in Luhansk and it is how I expect them to be used afterwards.

[Lord Shonus]

Not just SAMs, but interceptors as well. They basically look just like an actual attack bird (exactly which missile or jet they look like is programmed before launch) on sensors, so the enemy can't tell which one's actually about to blow something to Kingdom Come. They're really effective force multipliers, and the US never told anybody they were being sent. That tells me that the targets hit in that strike were really important.

[jipehog]

I imagine it would also work nicely with the maneuverable glide bombs coming from multiple directions.

Meanwhile in the world:
* Egypt has ignored U.S. requests to close its airspace to Russian military flights, American and Egyptian officials said, testing the limits of Washington’s ability to choke off Moscow’s supplies ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ally-rebuffs-requests-to-block-russian-military-flights-8539390f
* Among BRICS countries ( Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) which seek to establish alternative to west. China helps Russia, India deepen their economic ties, Brazil recently suggested peace plan that mirrors the former interests, so does south africa which seeks to involve other African countries in this.