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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0  (Read 108641 times)

lemon10

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2115 on: May 30, 2024, 08:32:45 pm »

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In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.
Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons
France and Germany say Ukraine should be able to use their weapons to strike inside Russia

Some good news for Ukraine it looks like. Russia going "nanana you can't shoot back at us" has been a pretty big problem for Ukraine. With counterfire restrictions removed that will no longer be an option.
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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2116 on: May 31, 2024, 01:18:08 am »

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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2117 on: May 31, 2024, 01:26:08 am »

It isn't formally announced, the source of the news story is a "leak".
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2118 on: May 31, 2024, 04:24:08 am »

Wars are weird nowadays. It basically is a public announcement: "Hey, Russia, you will be attacked in the next few days. Move your stuff now!"

Still, a very pleasant development.
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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2119 on: May 31, 2024, 05:57:06 am »

"Moving the stuff" might even be the aim. Causes fuss, disrupts the current sense of security.

The risk is that this makes the actual counterbombardment harder, for targets that matter, but the balance may be worth it. If drones/etc are no longer launched from one inch over the border (or effectively so, if not literally) but from locations well outside of long-range-artillery/etc, then it adds a further buffer in the interception of them. Regardless of weaponry being aimed over onto Russia's side, the eyeballs (or electronic equivalents) on that area are guaranteed to be there, well beyond the interception/interdiction ranges, but wasted if all attacks "pop up" already almost in your dejure zone of control, from amongst the mass of unattackable ground units that you're not allowed to attack due to hamstringing your defacto area of effect.

But there's going to be both strategies and tactics involved, not necessarily all pulling in the same direction as each other, never mind the additional politics and international relations. And working with ideologies; of one's own and of all others, both allied and opposing. There'll be people whose paygrades (and access to information) are more suited to juggle such priorities and give more considered opinions on the best approach. I can only speculate upon the many fine details, that might affect the best balance of the wheels within wheels.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2120 on: May 31, 2024, 06:27:42 pm »

It isn't formally announced, the source of the news story is a "leak".
I think it's just confirming an open secret at this point.  I mean, Ukraine has quite obviously been using US weapons on targets inside Russia, the US has continued to supply the weapons, and the US has stopped complaining about it.

The real benefit is that Germany and France have also joined in saying that their weapons can be used on targets inside Russia.

EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2121 on: May 31, 2024, 06:30:14 pm »

An excerpt from a BBC article, How is China supporting Russia...:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sanctions are working to some degree, but they are being partially bypassed... Bill Brouder's May/2024 testimony to the UK House of Commons Treasury Committee was excellent. He covers a lot of ground about the sanctions, how well they are working and where some loopholes are, and solutions.

The most obvious thing about that article is the picture of the two leaders. Putin is walking behind, skinny, head down, and short. Xi is walking in front, head up, tall and fat.

There is also a clear trade imbalance:
"Russian imports from China were $111bn and its exports to China $129bn, the figures show." <-That $18 Billion difference is probably the difference in the value of provided goods, with it otherwise being an equivalent exchange.

"As of 2023, China has become Russia's top trade partner, while Russia is China's sixth-largest trade partner." <-Clearly, Russia is just not trading that much in value.

Maximum Spin

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2122 on: May 31, 2024, 10:59:43 pm »

An excerpt from a BBC article, How is China supporting Russia...:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Sanctions are working to some degree, but they are being partially bypassed... Bill Brouder's May/2024 testimony to the UK House of Commons Treasury Committee was excellent. He covers a lot of ground about the sanctions, how well they are working and where some loopholes are, and solutions.

The most obvious thing about that article is the picture of the two leaders. Putin is walking behind, skinny, head down, and short. Xi is walking in front, head up, tall and fat.

There is also a clear trade imbalance:
"Russian imports from China were $111bn and its exports to China $129bn, the figures show." <-That $18 Billion difference is probably the difference in the value of provided goods, with it otherwise being an equivalent exchange.

"As of 2023, China has become Russia's top trade partner, while Russia is China's sixth-largest trade partner." <-Clearly, Russia is just not trading that much in value.
Exporting more in money terms than you import is generally considered a good thing... the alternative would be selling off forex assets, if any, followed by racking up external debt.

As for Russia being China's sixth-largest trading partner while China is Russia's largest, yes, that's what you'd expect when China is not sanctioned by the rest of the world and can thus act as an intermediary for Russia as well as doing its own business. China's larger trading partners are the US, which is deeply in a current account deficit with it (and certainly doesn't trade much with Russia, who we hate); Japan and South Korea, which understandably don't trade much with Russia either; Hong Kong, which hardly even counts since it is part of China; and, hilariously, Taiwan.
If we consider only China's imports, which is really more important from the perspective of what they "need", Taiwan jumps to the top, followed by the US, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and Russia. They're all more or less in the same order of magnitude, $129 billion from Russia to $199 billion from Taiwan.
But more importantly, Russia is China's largest crude oil supplier, the source of almost a fifth of their crude oil, while, for example, the US only provides a little over four percent. So the question of value has to be considered in terms of - if China suffers an economic contraction, who will it keep trading with? Certainly it will continue to need fossil fuels, without question, and the agricultural products it gets from other BRICS countries and the US (although they have been weaning off the US to some extent). It's manufactured goods, like it gets from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which are more likely to be cut back in a crisis, while the economy focuses on keeping the lights on. Given China's enormous need for energy, and continued failed attempts to achieve energy independence, (and especially in the light of production declines in other major energy suppliers, most importantly Saudi Arabia!) it's really impossible to argue credibly that China doesn't need Russia a lot more than Russia needs China.

I get that you're motivated by a desire to see Russia lose, believe me, but that doesn't justify being unrealistic... things are indeed pretty bad.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2024, 11:06:21 pm by Maximum Spin »
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anewaname

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2123 on: June 01, 2024, 03:15:26 am »

I'd question if China is failing to gain energy independence... They may have a massive hoarding program in progress, filling storage pits with Russian oil as fast as the pits can built.

Bleahhh... now I am wondering where the displaced Ukrainians are within Russia and what grunt work they are doing... like producing raw resources to pay Russia's trade deficit with China, etc...
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2124 on: June 01, 2024, 03:21:18 am »

I'd question if China is failing to gain energy independence... They may have a massive hoarding program in progress, filling storage pits with Russian oil as fast as the pits can built.

You can't hoard your way out of not being able to meet your own energy needs. China already has a ludicrous appetite for energy, and (unlike most countries that already have high energy demands) their need for power is growing rapidly because large swathes of the country are still underdeveloped. They're currently building quite a lot of coal plants (albeit of advanced design, and largely to replace existing and much worse coal burners) despite coal being almost certainly the worst fuel source from an economic as well as an ecological one. They just need the power generation that badly and can't build anything else fast enough to meet their needs.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2125 on: June 01, 2024, 03:22:17 am »

I'd question if China is failing to gain energy independence... They may have a massive hoarding program in progress, filling storage pits with Russian oil as fast as the pits can built.
Well, usually by "energy independence" we mean through actual domestic production, lol, but that's not inconceivable in and of itself, it just wouldn't count as independence.

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like producing raw resources to pay Russia's trade deficit with China, etc...
(Russia has a trade surplus with China - I think you just mean making up the trade itself, not deficit or surplus.)
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lemon10

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2126 on: June 01, 2024, 03:46:08 am »

Russia isn't subservient to China or anything, but they clearly need China far more then China needs them.
Sure China needs oil, but they can get oil and coal from someone else, it might just cost more.
On the flip side Russia can't get the stuff they need in bulk from anyone except China due to sanctions, sure they *can* get around them to some extent, but due to the sanctions and high tech level of much of the stuff they want (notably chips and machine tools) doing so would be vastly more difficult then it is for China to just get fuel from someone else.
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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2127 on: June 01, 2024, 11:47:26 am »

Russia isn't subservient to China or anything, but they clearly need China far more then China needs them.
Sure China needs oil, but they can get oil and coal from someone else, it might just cost more.
On the flip side Russia can't get the stuff they need in bulk from anyone except China due to sanctions, sure they *can* get around them to some extent, but due to the sanctions and high tech level of much of the stuff they want (notably chips and machine tools) doing so would be vastly more difficult then it is for China to just get fuel from someone else.
You're throwing around the word "need" too cavalierly, or at least you don't understand the sheer scale of China's need for energy. You can run an economy on the Soviet infrastructure and 2000s-era computer chip technology Russia already has. You cannot run an economy without energy. Saying "China could just get fuel from someone else" is like the old story about people who hide from the rain under a tree, where one asks, "What will we do when the rain soaks all the way through the tree and starts falling on us again?" and the other answers "That's easy - we just get under another tree." China is already the largest importer of energy in the world - it's already buying fuel from everyone else who has it too. In fact, China produces half the coal mined in the entire world and still imports more. It's already the world's largest generator of solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. There is no secret extra fuel supply for it to use. Russia and the United States are the world's two largest energy suppliers (the largest single producer, China, being a net importer) overall, American energy is considerably more expensive, and a big portion of it goes to Europe anyway; for China to "just get fuel from someone else", it would have to outbid another country who also needs that fuel to survive, meaning a massive increase in the worldwide price of fossil fuels.
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anewaname

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2128 on: June 01, 2024, 02:40:45 pm »

*** Coal is bad... ***
There is an idea about coal that is well-rooted in "west" ideology that multiple ideological groups have all accepted as true for different reasons, and China has not. The common agreement between these western ideological groups prevents them from seeing what China sees. The "west" agrees that "coal is bad", but China says "coal plus battery can reduce petrol demand".

All power plants are designed to meet power spike demands, and coal is bad at meeting power spike demands, because the composition of coal's combustible elements varies so much. The newer Chinese coal power plants are designed to burn up more of the combustible elements by varying the burn and by reburning, instead of attempting to meet the power spike demands; and it works because because China is complementing their coal plants with EVs and battery storage.

The "west" is still stuck in that unified agreement that "coal is bad" with ecologists talking about "pollution" and oilgarchs talking about "oil is more efficient" and that forms a deadlock because their reasons for agreeing "coal is bad" are different. Their conversation is stuck on that implied disagreement.

*** Preparations for developing hegemony through military might ***
As China puts civilians and non-strategic industries on a primarily coal/battery system, their petrol logistics are freed up. This allows for a much larger military force.

India cares about China's plans for hegemony, so here is a recent The Times of India article talking about China's strategic stockpiling. It could just be fear-mongering, but it makes sense for China to do this, because they are incapable of developing a hegemony without having the military strength to coerce others within their intended area of influence. They do not need equivalent military strength, they need greater military strength.

And, while this is the Ukraine thread, it is related since China is both supporting Russia with components, and buying their resources, as well as being perceived as an additional coercive power on the "global go board".

And here is the Baker Institute's interactive map showing Chinese energy infrastructure because it is worth checking out.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #2129 on: June 01, 2024, 03:00:38 pm »

[generally]
Yes, agreed. In the west, the zeitgeist is this deeply schizophrenic view of China where it's evil and threatening, but also backward and losing. But the truth is, China isn't losing at all - it's setting itself up for the future possibly better than any other country. Allying with the region's top energy *and* agricultural exporter, both of which they need to support their massive population, is a crucial part of that.
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