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[ToonyMan]

Who's the Countdowner?

Definitely Not
ToonyMan - I'm unlikely to be mafia with Vector, I already started this game with two day abilities (I gave one to TolyK on D2).
NJW2000 - NJW is unlikely to be mafia with Vector, they are also likely to be town.
Jim Groovester - Inspected town by Tric on N1, really don't think they make a post like this as mafia.
Nakéen - Do I think Nakeen is mafia with Vector...no, no I do not.

Most Likely Not
TricMagic - Really don't think Tric is mafia here, if you take the opposite of what he's saying then he's right about everything.
Knightwing64 - Claimed SK-miller at the start, I really don't see them working with mafia here.
TolyK - I feel like they're being harassed by mafia a lot in this game, their night actions don't make sense to me if they're mafia.

Probably Not
NQT - Didn't kill NJW on D2 when they could have, is claiming Juicebox isn't a killing role based on N1 results.
EuchreJack - Pretty sure they're mafia, but the Final Countdown doesn't really fit to me.

It's The Guy
Juicebox - Vector didn't want them voted off on D1 when it was between Juice and Roden. The countdown ability matches with their role very well. I really don't think they're lying about their role, but this puts a bullseye on their forehead now.

[notquitethere]

ScumHunter Pro™ Claim-O-Matic

CLAIM [ROBO-NQT-4000]: this unit targeted Nakéen with a Cat Themed Untrackable Follow
OUTCOME: Nakéen targeted EuchreJack.
Rationale: This unit observed Vector interacting with Nakéen in a continuous pattern that indicated that either a scum player was defaulting to target an acceptable target OR it was a pattern of distancing. Nakéen was a high suspect of this unit in previous games. To attempt to rule out the latter possibility, Nakéen was followed.

CLAIM [ROBO-NQT-4000]: This unit assesses that the owner of the Final Countdown would appear as Beta AND all mafia players who are not godfathers would appear as beta EVEN IF they have no kill abilities. This has now been confirmed with the SysAdmin[FallacyofUrist].

SPECULATION [NJW2000, Toonyman]: Vector targeted Webadict with Congregate. The Congregate status matches something like the revive Webadict initially claimed then announced was a mod error. This was quite possibly open communication between him and the mafia team he served, as private channels were not available. Reassessment: this unit now accepts that Vector quite possibly did not perform the N1 kill, and instead intentionally targeted Webadict. This only leaves double-actors, isolated pairs of players claiming to have verified one another's claims, and Juicebox as the killer.

Recommendation: Simple and straightforward possibilities should be eliminated before complex solutions are sought. Juicebox may be the simplest solution, the Alpha non-mafia result notwithstanding.

[TricMagic]

Theoretically, Juicebox can clear themselves if they refill the shot on me or Jim. If it weren't for the pot of greed giving them two actions. We already know they are a multi-actor.

[juicebox]

So I'm gonna just..

I Play Pot of Greed.
This ability allows me to do one of two things depending on who I target. If I target myself, I can use two extra actions other than this one. If I target another player, then two random shotted abilities of theirs each gain a shot.

Actually targeting Jim this time.

[ToonyMan]

Well if Juicebox is giving Jim another kill chance then maybe it's better we save them for tomorrow's execution?

This would maximize the amount of chances we have to hit the Final Countdown player.

Theoretically, Juicebox can clear themselves if they refill the shot on me or Jim. If it weren't for the pot of greed giving them two actions. We already know they are a multi-actor.

Is this because a player is only allowed to perform one day action per day normally? This makes sense I guess. If Juicebox did the Final Countdown mafiakill today then I don't see how they'd also be able to give Jim a refill the same day, since even if they Pot of Greed themselves that's only for that day and we would know since Jim wouldn't get their refill...besides Juicebox having to announce every time they use Pot of Greed.

[ToonyMan]

Actually that's not true since we all die at the end of Day 5 so we only have the one night to kill anyway.

[Jim Groovester]

If I get my kill recharged (which I haven't yet) I am shooting either EuchreJack or juicebox during Night 4.

EUCHREJACK IS MY WHITE WHALE

I WILL NOT REST TIL I HAVE SLAIN HIM WITH

DEEZ NUTZ

Even if juicebox does recharge my kill I think it's

questionable

to lynch anybody else except the most likely culprit for the Ultimate Imminent Timer Expiration.

[ToonyMan]

Jack and Knightwing haven't even posted on D4 yet.

The energy level has been

Low

Since Vector died.

[Jim Groovester]

I PMed FallacyofUrist to confirm that I have not been given the juice.

I have not been given the juice.

[Jim Groovester]

FallacyofUrist, can you prod our missing players?

So, I could read through the game to draw conclusions, but I don't want to and I don't think my decisions change if I do.

My solution for the game looks like this:

Vote juicebox today.

If juicebox isn't responsible for the Ultimate Imminent Timer Expiration then I do some hard reevaluation, even if he flips scum.

If juicebox is scum and responsible for the Ultimate Imminent Timer Expiration, I vote EuchreJack next.

If it's not EuchreJack after that, then I go for notquitethere. If all that happens and the game somehow isn't over yet, I do some hard thinking since all the assumptions I currently have about the game would be incorrect.

(Reference) (Status) Congregation: You are claimed by an unearthly power. If you would be killed, the kill action fails without informing its user. If this occurs, you lose this Status. However, if you use a kill action on a Mafia-aligned player, it will fail without informing you. (Conditional kill actions don’t count if they don’t trigger their lethality.)

Does this explain how EuchreJack didn't die to my kill?

The only thing I'd have to think through is when would Vector have had the opportunity to give EuchreJack the Congregation status. webadict is tangled with Vector's N1 results even if there was ultimately an error. I guess Vector could have actually targeted EuchreJack somehow but I don't see how webadict erroneously gets the status in that case.

EuchreJack must have something else probably.

[Nakéen]

One annoying thing is I might have an ability in my advanced catalogue to deal with this. But I only get those if I'm the only dragon left. Which probably rules out knightwing given he's the other dragon. My blessing can't actually protect people from this kill given it's a superkill.

@TricMagic: How do you know KnightWing is the other dragon? I don't remember them claiming dragonhood.

(Reference) (Status) Congregation: You are claimed by an unearthly power. If you would be killed, the kill action fails without informing its user. If this occurs, you lose this Status. However, if you use a kill action on a Mafia-aligned player, it will fail without informing you. (Conditional kill actions don’t count if they don’t trigger their lethality.)

Does this explain how EuchreJack didn't die to my kill?

The only thing I'd have to think through is when would Vector have had the opportunity to give EuchreJack the Congregation status. webadict is tangled with Vector's N1 results even if there was ultimately an error. I guess Vector could have actually targeted EuchreJack somehow but I don't see how webadict erroneously gets the status in that case.

EuchreJack must have something else probably.

It could explain EuchreJack surviving, but it's unlikely Vector got a moment to pass the status to EuchreJack. You said so yourself, the meta GM error heavily points toward Vector attempting to pass the status to webadict only to be redirected on Maximum Spin.

I PMed FallacyofUrist to confirm that I have not been given the juice.

I have not been given the juice.

juicebox not giving the juice seems like a dead giveaway? Why claim to do something easy to verify and then not do it?

If juicebox isn't responsible for the Ultimate Imminent Timer Expiration then I do some hard reevaluation, even if he flips scum.

If juicebox is scum and responsible for the Ultimate Imminent Timer Expiration, I vote EuchreJack next.

If it's not EuchreJack after that, then I go for notquitethere. If all that happens and the game somehow isn't over yet, I do some hard thinking since all the assumptions I currently have about the game would be incorrect.

juicebox then Euchrejack sounds good to me, as I can confirm next night if Jack attempted to use a kill if my delay went through.

I'm holding off on dropping a vote until we get some words from KnightWing64.

Time is running short though.

Still unexplained night actions:
We still don't know who roleblocked ToonyMan.

[Nakéen]

I'm saying "if my delay went through" but I'm pretty sure this time it worked.

[Knightwing64]

DUN DUN DUN


Apologies. My power went out, so I haven’t gone online period for the past couple days.

Nice going Tric. You got me.

I’m a dragon.

Dragon deez nuts all over you

Nah. I’m just kidding, I’m a town dragon. I assume you’re the other one? Good show chap! Jollly good show!


I’m thinking Toony and someone else is mafia. I know Toony couldn’t have used Countdown, because I blocked/protected him.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m 80 percent sure Toony is either Mafia or turned mafia ally.

I might have to re-read the game with this newfound enlightenment.

I don’t think we should vote him out because he didn’t start the countdown though.

I would scroll through the game and point out times he has been acting suspicious, but I’m on a tight schedule at this exact moment.

I was hoping that the other dragons would die out, if I’m being honest.

When I’m the only dragon left, I would be pretty much immune to night kills. Not exactly but basically is what it would be. It wasn’t really a nessitate but rather it was a nice bonus so I haven’t been push in g for people I thought were dragons.

Sorry for any misspellings, I gotta dash. Brb

[ToonyMan]

And that's why I was roleblocked.

@Knightwing:
How am I mafia??

Also, unless your roleblock prevents day actions (I haven't used my redirect yet but I plan to today) then why couldn't I have started the countdown?

[Knightwing64]

Oops. I was rushing and assumed it was a night action.

Also I just said I was rushing and couldn’t give a list of reasons.

Can somebody help me out with that?