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Author Topic: FBYOR 5 - Game Over - Learning From Disaster, As All Ends In Fire And Darkness  (Read 62334 times)

juicebox

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #840 on: October 20, 2022, 04:00:15 pm »

I do want to post quickly that I'd like to see a bit more out of Nightwing and TolyK, I don't have nearly enough from them to get a solid feel on them yet.
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webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #841 on: October 20, 2022, 04:11:52 pm »

So, apparently Jim got Tri Attacked. Would a player know they got zapped?
Not as far as I know, but I can ask Fallacy.

I think TolyK's late miller claim is suspicious, however I feel they are working alone which makes them third-party at worst.
You think so?  I see TolyK's claim as a way to catch himself in a possible inspect, as he seemed the most worried about it.  Turning it around twice isn't a good look.  I see it as a bit panicky Town at best, but I don't think I see TolyK panicking with Miller claims, but I can't backup that claim without looking at TolyK's old games.

Jack I'm not sure of at this point. Think I need to do a couple of rereads on them to get more of a feel for them.

Jim is also hard to get a feel for,  sometimes they don't seem very engaged, other times they're putting in posts with quite a bit of effort behind them.
I'm kinda feeling that same issue.  A lot of my motivation hit a hard wall with a long Night.  I kinda feel like the only person putting more than their share in are ToonyMan and NJW (and don't tell him I said this, but also Tric, probably), though I don't necessarily think ToonyMan is Town because of it.  But he IS trying harder than most are, that's for sure.

Additionally, my biggest concern with you is that your Actions make you very suspicious.  Semi-rolecopping + no Action on Night 1 is pretty scum-sided.  I can't say I don't think reading ToonyMan as Town is wrong, but it seems like it's easy to say.  I think that you aim too much at people that are already in the lenses of others, and you don't spend enough time on me or Vector, especially when you have an unfinished post pointing out a potential link.

I feel you are scumlean at worst, though.  The biggest issue is always the lack of action, but that's an extra factor on top of other minor issues.
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NJW2000

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #842 on: October 20, 2022, 04:41:14 pm »

Brief thoughts.

If KW is scum, someone has managed to successfully coach him, and his independent game has improved substantially. Meta read.

Ok, on a reread, there's a slim chance Web is town. He doesn't usually try this hard to create discord instead of successfully townhunt, but it's possible this is a reaction to people contradicting him more than usual. I'm a bit reminded of MVM4, when a confusing night and strong disagreement led to a purely mechanical focus.

I don't think NQT fakes a mistake about their role PM... it's extremely wild as a way to hurt town, however effective it may have been, and goes against their inclinations. The mistake from NQT only happens if NQT is mafia with a bunch of gunsmith inspections and 3p detection, and thinks they should elim a town player with a gun. This looks entirely possible... the idea Juicebox "probably" did the kill here in this post, the preemptive attack on the idea juicebox would hold a kill. Even the dozens of poor reads thrown out at the same time as a claim that he'd basically caught scum looks odd... most players would immediately zero in on their night result, and probably start doing associative reads.

I can still see this as scum!NQT misreading their PM here and thinking this is an opportunity to kill a town vig and look clean.

His lack of contrition about wasting people's time also suggests a non-town mindset as NQT is usually a team player as town and quite gentle/supportive in scumchat. It is however possible that while mild-mannered NQT would blush bashfully after realising his mistake, STUPENDOUS MAN a robot pirate guy would not. Or maybe he's just doing the entire module thing in order to play differently from normal, I don't know.


Nakeen still does not look particularly eager to solve the game. The posts today are doing stuff, but the stuff is mechanical, and doesn't always look entirely relevant to the elim.

Unsure about Toony. He looks town today, but he honestly wouldn't struggle to, it's an easy position. This early post not admitting his watch was roleblocked looks like a town gambit. His votes yesterday do not look so good.



Nakeen: what's the balance of mechanical analysis and tone reading in your thought processes at the moment?
I.e., are you 100% trying to figure out who did the kill based on claims, or are you 50% focused on understanding the mechanical nature of the game and 50% focused on trying to figure out who's mafia from tone, or are you 80% going by tone, etc?
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Nakéen

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #843 on: October 20, 2022, 04:57:08 pm »


Nakeen: what's the balance of mechanical analysis and tone reading in your thought processes at the moment?
I.e., are you 100% trying to figure out who did the kill based on claims, or are you 50% focused on understanding the mechanical nature of the game and 50% focused on trying to figure out who's mafia from tone, or are you 80% going by tone, etc?

At the moment I am still very much 90% thinking in terms of mechanics, as I wasn't yet able to compile people answers to form tangible reads. To fuel my "tonal" analysis, I will focus mostly on taking a look at other players reactions or lack of reactions to my analysis.

I don't think I will have enough time to go on a full analysis of players interactions, and I will definitely make dumb mistakes if I try to go for it with the remaining time.
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Nakéen

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #844 on: October 20, 2022, 05:01:11 pm »

In addition I'm hoping to find a flaw in all the claims, that would help me orient my choice of delay action. If I can find out who got a mafiakill, whether or not people follow me I can delay them.
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webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #845 on: October 20, 2022, 05:10:14 pm »

I want to see NJW's face when he sees me flip, it's gonna be great.  If you could take a picture, I would appreciate it.
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EuchreJack

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #846 on: October 20, 2022, 05:12:52 pm »

Arr, here be the stats o post count up to and including today:

webadict - 63
notquitethere - 44
ToonyMan - 41
TricMagic - 24
EuchreJack - 17
Knightwing64 - 14
NJW2000 - 14
juicebox - 13
Jim Groovester - 12
Vector - 10
TolyK - 10
Nakeen - 7

Aye indeed the most quiet 3 were also the lowest posters on the first day. Arr... quality be not the same as quantity, but I have long observed that the most engaged players are usually not scum.

Wew, I at least thought KnightWing or Vector were behind me in the ladder. I will probably keep last place, I can't imagine posting to pad the count. And the less filler the better. The clock is ticking though and I won't be able to create an effort post until a while at least, but I will be able to answer questions.

Quick question to other players, has there been a case of a lunatic role that changes alignment every Day/Night cycle? Also I would love to get more info about the dragons because I'm not one, but I feel like it will just make us run in the wrong direction.

Tolyk apparently. Yeah, let's vote them so they actually post something substantial before end of day.

EuchreJack

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #847 on: October 20, 2022, 05:13:51 pm »

Is anyone going to bother to answer any of my more recent questions?

notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #848 on: October 20, 2022, 05:18:04 pm »

Yarr, t'was pretty sure ship cook NJW was town, but now I be certain. This is some very careful and canny working through I'm seeing here.

And fer the record, me hearty, I was a mite bit contrite, aye, as apologetic as a brash and blustering buccaneer can muster. You'll like me better if we both make it to tomorrow, matey!



Nakéen, I have never seen rotating alignments in any other game, but, arr... it's not impossible. Just as likely as a shark in me pantaloons.



As promised, here be me meta reads from comparing the last game's vote frequency. Yargh, it be the exact same NQT fancy that you all love to ask me for and then ignore when I do, but I do fer me own desire to understand the crew:


Avast! Let it be known there were seven players in common between the games. Here's how their # of unique targets compared:
Matey Max: Attacked 1 more person compared to when he was a 3rd party (who eventually sided with town)
Bosun TricMagic: Attacked 1 more person compared to when he was town.
Cap'n NQT: Attacked less people D1 this game compared to when he was power wolfing, though still in the top 2.
Quartermaster Jim: Had the same number of targets compared to when he was town.
First Mate EuchreJack: Attacked 3 less people on D1 compared to when he town.
Cabin Boy KW: Had one less target than when he was town (still low both times)

Arr, so far, so dull. But there be one big outlier in the midst... first mate EuchreJack. When he were a loyal crewman, he was MUCH more feisty. And now there's also the question mark over the unknown wet stain on his pantaloons...

Where was yer grit yesterday, man?
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #849 on: October 20, 2022, 05:20:37 pm »

(Missed ole Toony on the list there... he was slightly more ready with the cutlass this game than before. So promising sign!)
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TricMagic

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #850 on: October 20, 2022, 05:26:19 pm »

Jack, do it be true? Are ye a traitor among these shiphands yarr?
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TricMagic

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #851 on: October 20, 2022, 05:30:48 pm »

Is anyone going to bother to answer any of my more recent questions?
Which questions do ye have? Arr, only one recent, TolyK thee asked to enlighten ye. Before that, Vector the unseen did ye ask if the had info on our crazed webadict. What reason did ye have to vote'em at the time?
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webadict

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #852 on: October 20, 2022, 05:43:37 pm »

I'm on board with the TolyK vote, but I'm less on board with the EuchreJack vote.

Is anyone going to bother to answer any of my more recent questions?
Which questions do ye have? Arr, only one recent, TolyK thee asked to enlighten ye. Before that, Vector the unseen did ye ask if the had info on our crazed webadict. What reason did ye have to vote'em at the time?
Crazed makes me sound undignified.  I'd like to think of myself as Adamant or Bold.
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EuchreJack

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #853 on: October 20, 2022, 06:33:41 pm »

@Fallacy: Is there a dead chat?

I'm tempted to say "Folks, just hammer me so I can go play Kenshi", but there is still work to be done.

Did Jim & Toony figure out whether to roast Jim's Nuts?

Will Tolyk answer?

Will NQT actually explain his charts? We know he can't read them himself...

Hm, it appears that work has in fact severely limited my posts and comprehension of the game, as I only have questions to Vector and TolyK left unanswered (I think):

Respect for Toony's suspicions.
I mean, nobody even mentioned my absence at end of day 1.
My explanation for that is simple: I was sleeping and missed it. Sorry!

Working a lot today, so that limited my ability to post. I also didn't want to get in the middle of NJW & Web's thunderdome.

Since I didn't post much, there is no explanation of my vote for Vector, so I'll give that now. According to NQT's chart, Vector visited Web. And Knightwing64 claims any action directed at Web is redirected to Max. Vector was also on the Roden wagon. So overall, I suspect Vector.

@Vector: When you inspected Web and got a Town result, did your ability do anything else? Did you learn anything else about Web?

TolyK, did ye ever explain why you left it until the end to claim miller? That's a borderline hanging offence.

No, I did not explain. For one, I didn't (and don't) intend on remaining a miller for long. For two, I wasn't too active earlier in day 1. Finally, by now I've claimed a significant portion of my current role (and part of my non-current role); I was quite hesitant to give too much too fast, but after the other claim had realized that claiming miller after being investigated is quite dumb & counterproductive.

And I suspected (correctly!) that inspects are pretty much nerfed in this game anyways. Turns out target redirection is a big thing.

@Tolyk: WTF is up with this "I'm a miller yesterday, but I'll presumably waste some action just to not be a miller, even though I'm already tainted anyways." I don't see this as helpful to finding Scum. Could you explain further?

I'll drop mine in EuchreJack's instead.
Thanks Tric.  :P

@NQT: I think, if I were in fact awake for end of day, I would have voted...NJW.  Bad reads, useless double votes, yeah don't see why I should have voted elsewhere. Also trying to stay more on votes to increase their impact. But I'm not sure what I did Monday, so whatever.

@Knightwing: Could you avenge me when I get lynched? Find the scum at fault.  Don't trust Toony too much (or too little). He might be town, but he's a poopy head. He'll probably blame himself and do stupid shit for a couple days.

Is anyone going to bother to answer any of my more recent questions?
Which questions do ye have? Arr, only one recent, TolyK thee asked to enlighten ye. Before that, Vector the unseen did ye ask if the had info on our crazed webadict. What reason did ye have to vote'em at the time?
Vector targeted Web, and anything targeting Web got redirected to Max.
I've since revised that, since Web has so heavily defended Vector. So the theory of Vector killing Web means scum's ELITE STRATEGY was to kill themselves.
Also: You're not a pirate, NQT is the pirate. Knock it off, yer scurvy dog.

FallacyofUrist

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Re: FBYOR 5 (12 / 14) - Day 2 - Awakening To Darker Tides
« Reply #854 on: October 20, 2022, 06:35:43 pm »

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FoU has some twisted role ideas. Screw second-guessing this mechanical garbage spaghetti, I'm basing everything on reads and visible daytime behaviour.

Would you like to play a game of Mafia? The subforum is always open to new players.
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