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[ToonyMan]

@TolyK:
There's nothing to say Jack isn't the Countdowner, however I believe he's acting like far too easy a target. This could be a double bluff, but based on Vector's own behavior I think Jack is in the same boat as Vector and doesn't care like Jim said.

Actually that would just be a single bluff wouldn't it?

@NQT:
How much do you believe your results?

I want to hear your own thoughts on this, not just "aarr he tp or me results messed with".

[notquitethere]

Wait. NQT had a countdown post restriction... What were his night actions, again?

Avast, feast ye eyes on this:
 
N1: Inspected Juicebox
N2: Nothing, due to the aborted daykill
N3: Watched Nakeen visit EJ
N4: Inspected Toony and got a third-party result


N4 Claims So As They Be:

Jim: Shot Euchrejack, EJ lives.
Tric: Blocked Nakeen.
NJW: Roleblocked, set on fire, killed
Cap'n NQT: Investigated Toony: third-party result which he denies
Nakeen: Confirms being blocked and set on fire by Tric. Apparently EJ didn't try and kill on N3.
EJ: Delayed randomise from N3 was used to redirect Jim to NJW. Regular action failed.
Toony: Watched Jim, Jack visited them. This was claimed after EJ's claim.
KW: Redirected all from targeted at Jack to Toony. This seems directly contradicted by EJ's claim to have been the one to redirect Jim to NJW, though who knows what would take precedence?
TolyK: Inspected NJW, learning he didn't act, and setting him on fire.

Things I wants to know:
- Have I missed anything from the above?
- Who roleblocked NJW?
- Why is KW protecting EJ?
- Why did EJ's inspect action fail this round?
- Why did I get a 3rd party inspection on Toony?

Avast! One explanation right now is Toony is some kinda scum element, hence the extremely uncharitable readings he's giving ("incorrect statements" my "MO"!! I made about one or two serious mistakes and corrected them, you vile bilge monkey!), his constant role lying. Aye, but on reflection I still think him more likely aggrieved town than deep scum. He be invested in the game and seems genuinely peeved by the mutineer's everyone-dies effect (which, I agree, be a tide of sewage on our fair shore, to say the least...).

So let's say he's town and I were redirected or randomised or whatnot. Who coulda done it? Assuming no double-acting shenanigans:

- Not Jim, his kill is confirmed by NJW
- Not Tric, his block is confirmed by Nakeen
- Not Nakeen, was blocked by Tric
- EJ could have done it as no one confirmed their action today.
- KW's claim hasn't been confirmed by anyone, but it'd be a weird one to make if false
- Not TolyK, as his flame-setting is confirmed by NJW.
- Not NJW, as TolyK says they did nothing.

Arr, so it seems if Toony be town, then EJ be most likely scum, perhaps with his protector KW. OR the scum team be from one of the mutually-confirming pairs, TolyK-NJW, Tric-Nakeen, NJW-Jim. But this seems somewhat less likely.

[NJW2000]

Yeah, I think EJ is either scum or almost totally checked out of the game. Question isn't who's scum, question is who did the countdown.

So many fun options. Second-guessing the mod and voting NQT on flavour! Second-guessing Vector and voting Nakeen! Second-guessing EJ and voting EJ! Second-guessing my gut and voting Toony!


Ok, here's one thing that might help people. I think we're looking for scum that didn't kill. So if we can figure out who likely (super?)killed D1, we can understand why not

Look at Vector's role. It has an innate "mafiakill", but not one that actually kills people. I suspect the same is true of the countdowner. I've asked FoU about whether Vector would have shown a standard kill on flip, but instinct says they would have.

[ToonyMan]

@NQT:
I wrote my claim in a large post which took some time. Just before I posted Jack slipped in with their claim, so yes TECHNICALLY it was immediately right after but it's incredibly misleading to say that without context, aka yes your MO this whole game.

@NJW:
If mafia are Jack/NQT I'm pretty convinced Jack crossbowed Max because Jack claimed results about NQT while NQT claimed results about Juicebox, erroneously I might add just for NQT. This means NQT has a clear while Jack has nothing in that scenario.

[notquitethere]

Toony, ye salty dog, I'm not trying to say yer scum over it. Only that yer action is not confirmed. I was cut to the quick with my night claim on D4 meself.

Stop grousing and help me with these questions, especially the first one. Did I miss any other claims?

Things I wants to know:
- Have I missed anything from the above?
- Who roleblocked NJW?
- Why is KW protecting EJ?
- Why did EJ's inspect action fail this round?
- Why did I get a 3rd party inspection on Toony?

Arr, we have three unclaimed actions, as far as I can see it. What's yer theory?

[notquitethere]

I was cut to the quick with my night claim on D4 meself.

(Though, I might add, that were deliberate on me own part, having wanted to see what Nakeen would claim. In any asymmetric  claim sequence, you'll usually have one person confirmed and one unconfirmed doing the confirming, savvy?)

[ToonyMan]

@NQT:
I think if you're town then it has to be Jack and Knightwing, but none of that makes sense unless Jack is the Countdowner, but his actions don't line up with that to me. In addition Knightwing acted in conflict with Vector on N1 and I feel they have been playing pretty independent and are town.

I also don't think it's solo scum since two mafia and an ally is really low for 14 players. Not really feeling an SK right now.

PPE:
Jim role blocked NJW while trying to kill them. FoU confirmed that even though NJW none'd (which TolyK confirms) he still gets a blocked message.

Don't know what KW is currently thinking since they've been busy apparently, but I can believe that. Hopefully they are available today.

Jack's inspect... shouldn't have failed right? Since Nakeen was blocked from delaying them thanks to Trick.

[ToonyMan]

Toony, ye salty dog, I'm not trying to say yer scum over it. Only that yer action is not confirmed. I was cut to the quick with my night claim on D4 meself.

Also, screw you. If you look at mine and Jack's posts side by side and think my action isn't 99% confirmed then you have a deep distrust of me and must also think I have insane wizard speed fingers.

[NJW2000]

Hmph... I thought earlier that the crossbow kill was almost definitely in EJ/Nakeen. But yes, I don't recall NQT being confirmed by anyone other than EJ N1, and EJ is quite possibly scum.

If we're looking at countdown!Nakeen, Vector could have just counted on dying in order to make them look good for a day or two for the instawin. Woud be a viable strategy, as Vector gets to create allies or at least uncertainty with the Congregation convert.

I don't see countdown!EJ and scum!NQT, or countdown!EJ with anyone other than Vector. Nice WIFOM if it was, way to make sure town can't turn a 1/7 into anything better than a 1/2 by thinking carefully. But I feel like the countdown player wouldn't have another kill... unless it's just random flavour WIFOM by the mod at this rate, which is fun I guess. So not countdown!NQT.

Flavour-wise, crossbow looks like it might be a superkill (one-shot/long reload, penetrates armour, non-standard kill description), which I suspect the non-countdown, non-Vector mafia would have instead of a normal kill, although this is pretty weak speculation. That would be on EJ? I guess he couldn't have used it twice, or he was successfully blocked/delayed if he tried to use it again.

If we're dead set on scum!EJ, Nakeen does look like they might be coordinating with them quite heavily. Given their mediocre D1, stuff like this post where they take EJ over Vector looks a little too good to be true. And maybe I'm just wrong about how Jack's been playing, I don't know.

I'm leaning towards countdown!Nakeen.

Hey, the claim flavour fits.

[notquitethere]

Avast! Toony, if you really be town, I'm telling you now, you're engaged in self-biasing rationalisation around me. You have a feeling and then yer searching for evidence for it and ignoring the evidence that don't fit. Arr, indeed, I did the same when we threw juicebox overboard! Some signs pointed to him being scum, others definitely didn't, in the end I made a judgement and it was wrong as a peg-legged squid.

But your grumpy indignation here does read as town. I feel the same when you're pointing the finger at me, after all I've tried to do in this bleeding game! If I were scum I could have slept through like TolyK and KW and done bugger all and got a free pass. But no.

On your prompting, I went and looked at the time stamps, and you're absolutely correct Jack only claimed two minutes before you got your post out, a post that must have spent more than two minutes writing. Aye, so it is very likely you're telling the truth.


Arr, thanks for cluing me in on NJW/Jim blocking situation. So only two unknown claims.

Jack's inspect... shouldn't have failed right? Since Nakeen was blocked from delaying them thanks to Trick.

Aye, now we're getting somewhere. There's no reason it should have failed that I can see.

but none of that makes sense unless Jack is the Countdowner, but his actions don't line up with that to me.

What kind of activity would you expect from the Countdowner then?


Now it seems to this old sailor that:
1. The mutineers know I was a robot and so had to perform the robot action last night (if at least one of them be paying attention, they'd know that I'd said as much)
2. They know that KW appears as SK on inspection (or so he had claimed) AND TolyK had been a miller (did he ever claim to have gone through with getting rid of that status?)
3. They could reasonable assume redirecting me to a miller would cause us to go after one another today.

KW is a claimed redirector and there is no evidence their redirect actually happened last night (or indeed on N1). Or EJ could be the redirector onto KW.

Arr, and we don't know who is the countdowner (which is the big question) but I feel like we're getting somewhere...

[TricMagic]

This is a good post. I don't think you're the countdowner because you give a shit about the game.

Vector also had it out for you all game long.

Bad post cause of the fact they misunderstand my kill. I can only kill people that are already on fire, which are TolyK and Jim. My only method of triggering it last night came with a roleblock. So killing Jim means Jim's kill doesn't happen. Killing TolyK might have worked out, but they had the investigation.

Assuming ToyK/Me are town, we know that Jim/NJW are town.
Assuming NQT is town, we know... Hmm, what was NQT's night 1 result again.

[TricMagic]

Mixup of course, nothing there.

As a question, do we know who killed Max night 1?

[notquitethere]

Avast Tric, how do you not remember the entire saga of that result??!

N1: Juicebox was town. I got meself in a twist later second-guessing the mod and thinking he was a scurvy godfather.

Arr, and as for who ran a cutlass through poor Seaman Max... if it wasn't the scabrous Vector (and I can see the argument that it wasn't) it musta been a double-actor or KW, whose action was never confirmed by nobody and conveniently only impacted confirmed mutineers, Vector and Web.

POE keeps coming back to KW/EJ as the last mutineers, but I'll have to look at the votes before I say anything more decisive...

[Knightwing64]

Bro

Why would I….

You know what?

I’m…


Aarrhehhrdjpnu

[notquitethere]

KW, you scallywag, what was your thinking behind your night action? What did you intend to achieve?