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Author Topic: Armed Forces Mafia - Game Over Mafia Win!  (Read 17064 times)

notquitethere

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #225 on: August 23, 2022, 12:55:01 pm »

Lidku
NQT: Does not post often, but I get a Town-side manner from him.
Been juggling other things but should be able to up my frequency in the rest of the game.

NJW: Makes constructive posts and isn't afraid to deviate from wagoning
Makes big posts. Not joining a wagon by the end of the day though is scum-sided play. We shall see.

Lenglon: I don't know particularly, but slightly lean Town.
What's giving you trouble assessing Lenglon?

Jim Groovester: Does not post often, but when he does, makes very large analytical post-replies to things he finds interest in. Lean Town.
I agree, Jim would be a bad pick for the D1 vote.

Knightwing: The current wagon and easy strike-down for a D1 lynch. Not definitive on whether he's particularly Town or Mafia, but I think he leans Town.
Did you see his play in Demon? I gave him the benefit of the doubt there and I was dead wrong.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

ToonyMan: I found him slightly suspicious for going along with the wagon against Knightwing, but it could be a case of him being indirectly influenced by Max and Web.
Do you think town!Toony would just sheep Max and Web?

Maximum Spin: Very suspicious in his reasonings up until this point and is a skilled player. Whenever he feels pressured, he drops his formerly jovial and light-sarcastic tone to shift suspicion off of him. Which has he has been doing all game after I made my read of him. His post activity spiked after that.

I feel like a confident Town!Max would just toy and troll around with an inexperienced player like me... but he immediately off the bat is really serious and trying hard to defend himself. That makes me think Maximum Spin is Mafia even more.
Like I said at the beginning of the game, I always find Max shifty. If KW is town, then I think Max has like a 85% chance at being scum.

webadict: I think he is a certainly a scum due his 3 minute flip-flop alone. I at first thought it could've been him and Toony, but I've shifted to Web-Max. I don't believe his claim that he dropped his "barbarian-posting" because he found that style of posting hard to do. I think he dropped it because I didn't relent on drawing a link between him and Max being on a team.

webadict in comparison to Max has been more "toyish" toward me in responses, but you can still see the line of cold-hard defensiveness toward my arguments. Like Max, I feel like a truly confident Town!webadict wouldn't go all out like this. Something is up.
I enjoyed his barbarian phase, I wish he stuck with it. Changing your mind frequently is a town tell, it's only when you never actually put pressure on anyone that it leaks into scum-sided behaviour.

Lenglon
That particular tell? That specific one is lazy town!KW. I think KW is scum overall anyway however.
I'll wait to see what other people say about this, but this is definitely an interesting angle to take here. I think you may be right that we would see this from a town!KW regardless.
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #226 on: August 23, 2022, 01:10:44 pm »

Why are people suspicious of Jim? Maybe I can't read Jim well at all but I think he's town.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Not sure. This one does seem like Town Jim...

Which means it's definitely scum Jim.

Look, I've been wrong about this before in the past, I'm so borderline here. Someone give me a sanity check. Wuba, Jim, Anyone Else is the emotional blackmail scum!KW, or just lazy town!KW?
Ehhhh, that's not the real emotional blackmail scumplay yet, but he hasn't convinced me that he's Town either.

Quote from: webadict
You do realize that NQT also voted Knightwing too, right? That means at least two Townies voted Knightwing, no matter what. So why is only Toony the one that's being manipulated by Max and I? That's a weird take.

Something I already addressed:

Quote from: Lidku
With a large part of Town-base even voting for Knightwing, it'd be hard to readily back interest to the two of you, since the majority of Town easily fell-in to the line-of-thinking Knightwing might've been scum.

Toony and NQT have outright voted for Knightwing, but if you look at the rest of Town's post attitudes toward Knigtwing besides myself, you'll see EVERYONE at this point suspects Knightwing due to the wagon you and Max set up. Not just "Toony" as you're trying slyly to frame it. If you took at least a few seconds to read my other post right after my readslist, you wouldn't have asked this question in the first place.

Quote from: webadict
I dunno, it just feels like you hard committed to the Max/web line because it lets you not have to really defend your vote very hard when questioned on it.

Except I literally have been defending it hard, when questioned about or criticized about it multiple times? It's strange that you even say this, unless it's simply an attempt at soft misdirection.

And you have GM'd most of the Mafia games I've been in the past, webadict. You should by now that I never usually go out this strong on D1 at all. I'd only do this if something really tac'd my suspicions, which you have, webadict.
Okey dokey, artichoke me, daddy.

Your point is that Max and I coordinated a vote on Knightwing by using evidence on why he's scum, and this worked because everyone thinks he's scum? Listen, that's not really Max's or my fault, is it? I put out solid reasoning on what Knightwing could do to make himself look Town, and, uh, he didn't do it. That's what he does as scum. He lurks, actively and passively. It's a hard habit to break, so I don't fault him for it. And if he stops lurking, he'll be fine.

The other thing I want to point out is that defending a vote really hard was not what I meant. I meant that your vote can push against any meaningful discussion by saying "Look, web has performed a scumtell. Thus, he is scum." So, it involves no rational thought behind it. It invokes no means to discuss. It cares not about why the scumtell was performed (Even though it is 100% not a scumtell, but let's get to that shortly.)

Conventionally, if I performed a scumtell, does that make me scum? If I perform a Towntell, does that make me Town? The answer to these questions is obviously no. Statistically, though, they're good indicators. Statistics are supporting measures, but they're not proof. What that means is that pointing out someone doing a scumtell is fine as a baseline for your argument, a great reason to suspect someone, but it's not proof that they're scum. You can pretend flip-flopping is a scumtell all you want, but you haven't proven that the rationale behind the flip-flop is scummy.

But, flip-flopping is not a scumtell. I'm not going to find the stats, but you can trust that NQT did the analysis on it and showed there was a higher correlation between vote swapping and Townie players.
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #227 on: August 23, 2022, 01:12:08 pm »

webadict: I think he is a certainly a scum due his 3 minute flip-flop alone. I at first thought it could've been him and Toony, but I've shifted to Web-Max. I don't believe his claim that he dropped his "barbarian-posting" because he found that style of posting hard to do. I think he dropped it because I didn't relent on drawing a link between him and Max being on a team.

webadict in comparison to Max has been more "toyish" toward me in responses, but you can still see the line of cold-hard defensiveness toward my arguments. Like Max, I feel like a truly confident Town!webadict wouldn't go all out like this. Something is up.
I enjoyed his barbarian phase, I wish he stuck with it. Changing your mind frequently is a town tell, it's only when you never actually put pressure on anyone that it leaks into scum-sided behaviour.
A part of me wanted to, NQT. A part of me wanted to.
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NJW2000

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #228 on: August 23, 2022, 01:47:57 pm »

This is going to be my last post before I become inactive for quite a bit (job interview today).

ToonyMan, notquitethere, and NJW200: what do you think my full readslist?
Eh... I don't agree with all of it, although I think I can see the thought process behind it.

If it's ordered according to reads, it's a bit strange that NQT is so high up there just on a gutread. I'd note that most of your townreads are kinda bare-bones... this is less of a readslist at times, and more of an "I suspect these three players". To be honest, I find that a fair bit more useful than a readslist, those are easy to make as scum.

I'll have another look at Max because I'm bad at reading anything from them, but I didn't see the tone change.
To be honest, I just think you're wrong about a lot of this, and slightly going down a rabbithole.

Not really sure what this question was about.
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NJW2000

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #229 on: August 23, 2022, 01:57:44 pm »

Why are people suspicious of Jim? Maybe I can't read Jim well at all but I think he's town.
I ask a question here and answer yours shortly after.

tl;dr Jim is acting like he really doesn't want to get shot

Question: did KW's doc claim look like the result of someone coaching him to false-claim in a scumchat? Asking you because you've been scum with Knightwing a lot.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #230 on: August 23, 2022, 02:09:58 pm »

KW probably did the claim on his own. I didn't have much communication with KW when we shared a chat and it looked pretty similar in the KW/Jim chat. It's unlikely he's being directly told what to do, or listening, if mafia.
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ToonyMan

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #231 on: August 23, 2022, 02:11:49 pm »

This is going to be my last post before I become inactive for quite a bit (job interview today).

ToonyMan, notquitethere, and NJW200: what do you think my full readslist?
I suspect Max and Web if you and KW are both town.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #232 on: August 23, 2022, 02:12:13 pm »

Honestly, sometimes I forget that I'm actually decent at this game. When you guys are all going "I can't read Max, he's shady" and stuff, I get annoyed, but I have to remember that you're really right to suspect me. But actually - though I know you can't take my word for it - this time you have a secret decoder ring, as long as you know what happened to me in my last game — I simply would not, as scum, push a flimsy read on Knightwing again, right after doing so helped me blow the last game after a strong start. I'm a risk-taker as scum, but that would just be stupid given the trajectories of the last two BeBYORs.

Moreover, Knightwing is like Zen, okay? You have to just suddenly understand it, all at once. I can't put it into words to someone who doesn't already see it, but there's a clear difference between this Knightwing and Knightwing in the last BeBYOR where I did what I just said I did. All the people who I'd expect to see it - the people I have previously witnessed having that sudden spark of enlightenment - seem to see it. That doesn't mean we can't all be wrong, but it should really strongly convince you that we're not being unreasonable.

Re: KW's claim, last time, with Jim, he claimed part of his actual role.
tl;dr Jim is acting like he really doesn't want to get shot
I dunno, man, I really don't want to get shot either. I'm just kind of selfish like that.
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Knightwing64

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #233 on: August 23, 2022, 02:21:22 pm »

What I’m hearing from this is I’m a master of guilt tripping, I like to hear this as it fuels my ego

Yeah

Given I’m pretty sure I’m about to die, I’ll just put it out there that I have a heal ability with three uses that can prevent a death. I can use all 3 of them at one time, though not on myself and on different people.
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #234 on: August 23, 2022, 02:27:28 pm »

Hmm...

I'm actually willing to unvote that one.
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #235 on: August 23, 2022, 02:28:47 pm »

What I’m hearing from this is I’m a master of guilt tripping, I like to hear this as it fuels my ego

Yeah

Given I’m pretty sure I’m about to die, I’ll just put it out there that I have a heal ability with three uses that can prevent a death. I can use all 3 of them at one time, though not on myself and on different people.
Who do you think is suspicious?
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #236 on: August 23, 2022, 02:29:44 pm »

Here, look, unvote. Now ya gotta do the thing, Knightwing. Ya gotta do the dance.
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Knightwing64

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #237 on: August 23, 2022, 02:31:10 pm »

Jim has been acting unusual, not as aggressive, I guess? Maybe I’m being fooled but Lidku has a point about Jim not being a asshole this game, which is very strange and weird for him
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webadict

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #238 on: August 23, 2022, 02:39:38 pm »

Jim has been acting unusual, not as aggressive, I guess? Maybe I’m being fooled but Lidku has a point about Jim not being a asshole this game, which is very strange and weird for him
That wasn't Lidku that made that assessment, it was NJW2000. Anyone else?
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ToonyMan

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Re: Armed Forces Mafia (9/9) - HQ is organizing a new unit...
« Reply #239 on: August 23, 2022, 04:30:58 pm »

Jim has been acting unusual, not as aggressive, I guess? Maybe I’m being fooled but Lidku has a point about Jim not being a asshole this game, which is very strange and weird for him
So do you think Lidku is town? This relates towards my question to you.

Who would you shoot tonight if you were around?
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