Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Mamobo]

Vote Count
------------------------
Maximum Spin - 3 - NJW2000*, Lenglon*, TricMagic*,
TricMagic - 1 - Shakerag*,
Egan_BW - 0 -
FallacyofUrist - 0 -
Knightwing64 - 0 -
Lenglon - 0 -
Lidku - 0 -
NJW2000 - 0 -
Shakerag - 0 -
No One - 0 -

Not Voting - 5 - Egan_BW*, FallacyofUrist*, Knightwing64, Lidku, Maximum Spin*,

5 to Hammer. Day ends on July 13, 2022 at 20:00 CDT (~35 hours remaining).

[NJW2000]

For me? My action would show up as targeting Max in that scenario, assuming I wasn't redirected or some other shenaniganery.

My actions show up as mafiakill actions, but their apparent targeting is not modified from what it actually is.

Now this is WEIRD. Because the same does not seem to be true of Egan. See:

Shakerag - Please explain Miller Theory regarding D1 claims.

Oh I just realized I missed that.  I stick by the old (relative to this subforum) rules that you always claim miller ASAP.  To do otherwise is to invite doubt.

Ah in that case I'm like, omega miller. Inspects show me as mafia, surveys show my action as mafiakill, and tracking shows me as visiting whoever was killed.

So there are different Omega-millers in play?

Ho hum. I find that hard to believe. Also, have a look through Fal and EgAns early interactions. They’re just a tad weird. At the very least, I think FoU is lying here.

Anything to say for yourself, FallacyOfUrist?

[NJW2000]

Am aware that they’ve gone into this, but the story does seem to have changed.

Some other thoughts:

Sorry for lack of activity and poor formatting, pfp.

NJW2000 - Why should or shouldn't I vote Shakerag after the incredible, absolutely amazing, case that FoU just made?

It's a weak case, so I think more people should vote Shakerag, to make the case stronger.

More people voting != stronger case.  That just means you have more people voting on flimsy reasons which looks bandwagon-y.  A stronger case is made by providing additional (and good) reasons to vote someone.

Failure to tell when someone is being facetious is a strong scumtell for me - especially if the player isn’t a weak newbie or too egoistic to read other player’s posts. You’re neither, and don’t come across as drunk here. I responded to a joke with a joke, and you decided to be serious about it. Explain.



Max is actually irritated with Lenglon, or appears to be. Unusual deviation from his standard tone… he likes explaining his D1 style, or comes across that way at least, in other games.

Thanks for not hammering him while I was away though… I’d rather find scum than policy vote max .

[Maximum Spin]

Max is actually irritated with Lenglon, or appears to be. Unusual deviation from his standard tone… he likes explaining his D1 style, or comes across that way at least, in other games.

I really was. It was unusual for me, yes. I did point that out in a later post too, so I want to be clear that I'm acknowledging it.

My temper was short yesterday morning. I'd been sick, and on top of that my room was really hot, and it just kind of made me more irritable than usual. Later in the day I put up a passive cooler and fan and then almost immediately felt normal again. I really don't like when my mood is that changeable, I usually try to keep things from leaking into my behavior like that, but I guess it was just a bad day for me. 

Anyway. It's not really important anymore, but I felt like I should explain.

For me? My action would show up as targeting Max in that scenario, assuming I wasn't redirected or some other shenaniganery.

My actions show up as mafiakill actions, but their apparent targeting is not modified from what it actually is.

Now this is WEIRD. Because the same does not seem to be true of Egan. See:

Shakerag - Please explain Miller Theory regarding D1 claims.

Oh I just realized I missed that.  I stick by the old (relative to this subforum) rules that you always claim miller ASAP.  To do otherwise is to invite doubt.

Ah in that case I'm like, omega miller. Inspects show me as mafia, surveys show my action as mafiakill, and tracking shows me as visiting whoever was killed.

So there are different Omega-millers in play?

Ho hum. I find that hard to believe. Also, have a look through Fal and EgAns early interactions. They’re just a tad weird. At the very least, I think FoU is lying here.

Anything to say for yourself, FallacyOfUrist?

I agree with this interpretation, but doesn't it make more sense if Egan is the "suspicious one"? Fallacy is really only claiming... what's the word for someone who can find out what action you used? Let me check.
Okay, Fallacy is really only claiming to be a Following Miller, while Egan is claiming to be every kind of miller - Fallacy's claim would thus be provable if he is watched targeting someone who doesn't die, or even just inspected, while Egan is supposedly totally indistinguishable from scum and may honestly be a valid policy lynch.
Now, to be sure, Fallacy could be using this to build an excuse if he is later tracked to the kill target, but I think it's a more... open claim, if that makes sense. More open to resolution.
Oh, almost missed this.

Everyone: I'd like all anti-inspect claims out here on the table please. Miller claims, inspection block claims, whatever they may be, could anyone that has an anti-inspection mechanic of any kind (role, action, flavor, I do not care.) please speak up now so it won't be a viable claim for scum later. We've gone far enough into D1 for any gambits you wanted to play about how you reveal that stuff to have played out. Get them out here now please.

Fine. I expect to be untargetable tonight. I was going to tell everyone before day end, so might as well do it now. I am sort of like a kind of commuter. I will not go into further detail until the future.

[Lenglon]

Knightwing, I do agree that the question was a stupid one, but I asked it anyway because you had made a self-contradictory claim. Please explain at length what you think of Tric, their meta, their behavior, and if they are scummy or not.

Knightwing You have ignored this question, then deflected from answering it, and then ignored it once again. Answer the question.

 

I think Tric is town, they act scummy as town and they act like a town when scum. There is literally nothing else to say. I already told you what I thought about Tric and you keep repeating the same damn question over and over again.

I keep asking the same question because you aren't giving a satisfactory answer, and still haven't. However, I don't think this is intentional on your part, which is why I'm not threatening to vote you over it or anything like that, and am instead repeating myself at you (remember that this is basically an RVS question, and that the main reason it's being pressed is your failure to give a satisfactory answer, not the question itself). The problem here is that "scummy" and "townie" are fairly vague terms at the end of the day, and the way you've been answering this question comes across as self-contradictory and meaningless. let me borrow an example of a satisfactory answer to this kind of question from myself of yesteryear:

Pozzai - my opinion of TBF's meta? well, first let me give you a heads up that I took something like a year and a half to 2 year break from mafia and only recently came back, so I might be out of tune with current metas on people that were newish back then - TBF, OSG, and TDS. also I myself am not the most experienced at mafia. I did my reading, and can do basic analysis and such decently well, so I might be projecting an 'old vet' attitude... but Im actually not, Ive been actually IN a low number of games, and this is only my 2nd BYOR.
Having said that, my opinion of TBF's meta is that hes shortsighted but energetic. Hes useful early on because his energy generates activity but the later in the game it gets the more he mostly generates white noise. His analysis is lackluster and he doesnt read into peoples posts deeply enough to make emotional reads either. He is pretty much impossible to tell alignment of because his town meta is nonfunctional as town, so hes on my standing list to just lynch on general principal if I dont have anyone better to lynch - hes a permanant nullread. He also has a tendency to bandwagon as both town and scum, and will, again as both, push weak cases with lots of vitriol, generally making him an easy lynch for the scumteam, so a number of vets around here treat pushing a case on him similar to pushing a case on an idle player - not a problem in itself but doesnt generate *real* activity and if done without anything else then it counts as active-lurking.

The important difference here between your current answer and my old one is specifics. I want you to list of which specific scummy behaviors you'd expect from town Tric and which ones you would not. If you honestly can't read Tric and to you they're a permanent null, then say so. If you think that scum-Tric gets energetic and engaged with the game while town-Tric gets bored and disengaged, say that. If you think Tric has certain patterns or strengths or weaknesses to their playstyle, then mention them. If you think certain scumtells should be ignored if Tric does them, say so. If you think certain scumtells should NOT be ignored, then say those too. Specifics. Details. That is what's important when explaining a self-contradictory statement like that. And you should expect to have to give that kind of more detailed explanation any time you make a self-contradictory statement.

Knightwing: Please explain your self-contradictory view of Tric's meta.

What do you think about Egans meta?  Their behavior, and if they are scum or not. I legitimately don’t trust you anymore lmao

I haven't played mafia with Egan before, so my opinion of Egan's meta is going to be entirely based on their personality outside of mafia, which is not the best source of reads. What I am able to pull in from these outside sources is: Egan is comfortable with large mechanically complex systems, so I am expecting a strong nightgame from Egan. Egan has trouble taking a middle-ground approach to caution vs recklessness, tending to be cautious until some form of event horizon is reached, at which point they'll go all-in and throw self-preservation to the wind. Egan doesn't have super-resilient emotional defenses, and so I expect them to likely feel more heavily pressured than they actually are when a case is presented against them, and when pressured they tend to close themselves off, which means that while under threat they probably won't build good reads. Egan however is actually very insightful into other people's motivations and intent when calm, so I suspect that if they aren't pressed and threatened they'll have really good insight for us, which if it does not show up even while they're not pressured or threatened, I will consider mildly suspicious, but not super-suspicious because, again, I haven't seen Egan play mafia, and so they might have issues translating their talents elsewhere over to here.

[NJW2000]

Reply to this post by Max (specifically the vote on Egan):

I assume you calling Egan the quote unquote suspicious one implies you think this makes scum!egan town!FoU more likely than vice versa.

So you think scum!Egan might claim to be a very unusual miller in a game where town!FoU is actually a very similar kind of miller, while unless Egan has an extraordinary day-cop as mafia, they have no way of knowing FoU had that role?

That ascribes a level of luck indistinguishable from precognition to Egans play.

I don’t get it. How could you want Egan over FoU under these circumstances?

I need to see an explanation for this. I know from other games that a lot of your town D1 is about forming conditional judgements about alignment… this is not a vote I’d expect from you.

[Maximum Spin]

So you think scum!Egan might claim to be a very unusual miller in a game where town!FoU is actually a very similar kind of miller, while unless Egan has an extraordinary day-cop as mafia, they have no way of knowing FoU had that role?

That ascribes a level of luck indistinguishable from precognition to Egans play.

I don’t get it. How could you want Egan over FoU under these circumstances?

I need to see an explanation for this. I know from other games that a lot of your town D1 is about forming conditional judgements about alignment… this is not a vote I’d expect from you.

I don't really agree with this characterization. I wouldn't even describe what Egan is claiming as "a very unusual miller" - he's just claiming to be in all ways indistinguishable from scum. I don't think it's implausible that a scum Egan might claim this, and then happen to be backed up by the existence of a real miller, by luck. I also wouldn't say that FoU is claiming to be a "very similar kind of miller". Any kind of miller claim would read as "very similar" to Egan's claim because Egan's claiming that everything would read scum for him. So to put it like this, your argument would apply exactly the same way even if Fallacy hypothetically claimed Regular Miller, or Tracking Miller. Furthermore, of all the possible fake miller claims, this one (Following Miller) would be a really weird choice! Followers are somewhat rare to begin with, in my experience, and this would only be workable as a fakeclaim if his action isn't confirmable in any other way - if he gets inspected or followed, or his target gets watched, we'd (barring other interference) know whether he lied. It's not something that I think even a Scum Fallacy, who is admittedly a weirdo, would jump to as the first choice.

I'm definitely not saying I think Fallacy is town, or even necessarily more likely to be town than Egan in general. (Although, after having written the preceding paragraph, I think he's town more than I did.) But I think that your argument just works better as an argument for lynching Egan, at least partly because there's no other way to rule him out.

I also think you're getting too wrapped up in the fact that Fallacy claimed second, but again, if you look closely, Egan's claim in no way predicts Fallacy's any more than it would predict any other miller claim, since it applies to all possible facets of looking like mafia. If you want me to think that Egan was unusually prescient for including "actions look like mafiakills to a follower", then you'd have to argue that a mafia Egan would "normally" have forgotten that part while listing all the ways to look like scum, and I do not believe that to be the case.

I also think your objection isn't very well-thought-out and looks a little chainsaw-shaped.

[Shakerag]

NJW2000 - Why should or shouldn't I vote Shakerag after the incredible, absolutely amazing, case that FoU just made?

It's a weak case, so I think more people should vote Shakerag, to make the case stronger.

More people voting != stronger case.  That just means you have more people voting on flimsy reasons which looks bandwagon-y.  A stronger case is made by providing additional (and good) reasons to vote someone.

Failure to tell when someone is being facetious is a strong scumtell for me - especially if the player isn’t a weak newbie or too egoistic to read other player’s posts. You’re neither, and don’t come across as drunk here. I responded to a joke with a joke, and you decided to be serious about it. Explain

*shrug* I thought you were being serious.  Sue me for being autistic then.

[NJW2000]

MaximumSpin: do you seriously believe there is anything like a reasonable chance of someone making a fakeclaim of miller + unusual extra action-related miller characteristics in a game in which such a role actually existed? Because that’s what you’re telling us.

You’re pushing the idea that Egan is the elim  before FoU when if Egan is fake claiming, FoU almost definitely is but not vice Versa. In fact, you weakly attacked me for objecting to that. This does not look good for you.

[Lenglon]

if Egan is fake claiming, FoU almost definitely is but not vice Versa.

NJW: I firmly disagree with this. Please justify this assertion.

[Maximum Spin]

MaximumSpin: do you seriously believe there is anything like a reasonable chance of someone making a fakeclaim of miller + unusual extra action-related miller characteristics in a game in which such a role actually existed? Because that’s what you’re telling us.

YES, when the fakeclaim is "everything that could possibly be millerized".

This is what actually happened:
Egan: "I look like scum in every possible way, fully exhausting millerspace."
Fallacy: "Interesting, I also look like scum, but only in one particular, fairly uncommon way."
You: "THIS IS TOO MUCH OF A COINCIDENCE TO BE TRUE."

Your entire argument makes no sense. Seriously, think about it. You're acting like Egan claimed specifically the same kind of millerness as Fallacy, but that's not what happened. Egan claimed to be a miller in all possible ways, so obviously it would include the same way that Fallacy claimed. It would be more of a weird coincidence if he specifically skipped the kind Fallacy would later claim!

[NJW2000]

if Egan is fake claiming, FoU almost definitely is but not vice Versa.

NJW: I firmly disagree with this. Please justify this assertion.

Because if Egan is fakeclaiming and FoU isn’t, Egan just claimed a highly unusual role, one I’ve never seen or even heard of, and something more similar than any other role I’ve seen just happened to exist in the game. It’s an astonishingly unlikely event. When there is a much more likely explanation involving FoU fakeclaiming or neither fakeclaiming, we are not entitled to accept the ridiculously unlikely explanation as plausible.

I mean, all Egans posts so far could have been ones he was forced to make by a post restriction. It’s an extremely unlikely explanation, so I reject it.

Has anyone ever seen the “I appear to have done the mafia kill” role before? I think it’s a very nonstandard miller-like role

[Maximum Spin]

It is completely fallacious, no pun intended, to say that Fallacy's role is "more similar" to Egan's role than anything else. Fallacy is a miller in one way, Egan is a miller in every way. Every other possible way of being a miller would be equally similar to Egan's role as Fallacy's is.

If anything, Egan's role is more similar to mine than to Fallacy's or any other miller. Egan gives a "maximally mafia-like result" for all kinds of inspection, while I would give "no result". Is that an unreasonable coincidence?

Has anyone ever seen the “I appear to have done the mafia kill” role before? I think it’s a very nonstandard miller-like role

I'd like to add that Fallacy did not claim that he "appear[s] to have done the mafia kill". He claimed that his actions will appear to be kill actions, such as to a Follower. That's not really common, but then Followers aren't really common. I don't think it's in any way unreasonable as a kind of miller in a game where Followers exist (which they might here).

[Maximum Spin]

Let me put it like this.
Imagine that the same sequence of events happened, with Egan claiming the same role, but Fallacy claimed to be a normal alignment miller instead.
Egan's claim also covers being a normal alignment miller. Would you make this same argument in that case?

Fallacy's role cannot possibly change the probability of Egan's exact same claim being true.

[NJW2000]

The significant thing here is the claim of "specialised miller" of some kind (mafiascum wiki). It's an unusual role, and there is a low chance of someone claiming one kind of specialised miller, and another (kind of) specialised miller suddenly appearing in the game. The more sensible interpretation is to consider a causal link: one of "they're both fakeclaiming scum", "there's some kind of specialised miller theme this game" or "one copied the other".

I don't care if Egan claimed all of specialised-miller-space, they're rare enough we're entitled to rule out Egan making an improbably good guess that the game has specialised millers and going all-out with a D1 claim.


This isn't a huge point, but your reaction, and aggressive defence of FoU, is significant. I also don't want to elim Egan before FoU, because it would not be reasonable.

This is what actually happened:
Egan: "I look like scum in every possible way, fully exhausting millerspace."
Fallacy: "Interesting, I also look like scum, but only in one particular, fairly uncommon way."
You: "THIS IS TOO MUCH OF A COINCIDENCE TO BE TRUE."

You misrepresent me here. I simply claim that the event of Egan guessing there were specialised millers for a D1 miller fake claim should be has such low enough epistemic probability that we ought to discount it, and consider the three other options above.

*shrug* I thought you were being serious.  Sue me for being autistic then.

It's a weak case, so I think more people should vote Shakerag, to make the case stronger.

As you can see, I was genuinely posting nonsense, and you responded by calmly explaining that reasons make a case stronger. You come across as not wanting to draw ire, and more concerned that people not vote you than interested in what people are saying. Town want to understand what's going on, mafia just want to survive.

I'm going to assume the autism thing is a joke.