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[Mamobo]

Vote Count
------------------------
FallacyofUrist - 2 - Lidku*, NJW2000*,
TricMagic - 2 - Shakerag*, Maximum Spin*,
Egan_BW - 1 - FallacyofUrist*,
Lenglon - 1 - Knightwing64*,
Lidku - 1 - TricMagic*,
NJW2000 - 1 - Lenglon*,
Knightwing64 - 0 -
Maximum Spin - 0 -
Shakerag - 0 -
No One - 0 -

Not Voting - 2 - Egan_BW*,

6 to Hammer. Day ends on July 13, 2022 at 20:00 CDT (10 hours and 10 minutes remaining.)

NOTE: In the event of a tie, the Mafia chooses the execution target.

[Lidku]

Lidku: ... I don't actually have much to say, Lidku hasn't really impacted me. That's not a good thing given the machine-gun like reading.

Can you elaborate on how I haven't impacted you? I've been speaking about you quite a bit in the majority of my posts so far in D1; while I don't believe (and correct me if I'm wrong) NJW has really spoken about you at all.

[TricMagic]

Lidku: ... I don't actually have much to say, Lidku hasn't really impacted me. That's not a good thing given the machine-gun like reading.

Can you elaborate on how I haven't impacted you? I've been speaking about you quite a bit in the majority of my posts so far in D1; while I don't believe (and correct me if I'm wrong) NJW has really spoken about you at all.

There's no case or argument that actually stands out, or pops. And looking back via your profile post option, a lot of talking, but no substance. You don't really suspect anyone, and voted cause you had to. Why Fal?

[Lidku]

Since you have claimed to have read my posts, then you would understand why.. unless you just skimmed over it all (which I don't blame you for, considering your general busyness)?

I'm voting for FallacyofUrist because I just find his claims toward having a "miller" to be suspicious, a sentiment of which that I also have with Egan. It's just a variable that I'm uncomfortable with. But again, if you read my posts, I generally disclosed that I don't have any strong arguments on anyone on D1, since I believe it's just the least effective day for figuring out who is Mafia. Putting a vote on FallacyofUrist helps alleviate the calls from others for me to "vote" for someone.

[TricMagic]

No, that's about what I got. I'm just wondering why Fal over Egan?

[Shakerag]

Putting a vote on FallacyofUrist helps alleviate the calls from others for me to "vote" for someone.

If I didn't think you were a clueless newbie a statement like that is incredibly scummy.  Either way, my read on you is leaning scummier as the day has gone on.

At best your passivity is a detriment to town.  At worst you're scum trying to fly under the radar by not standing out. 

[Lidku]

I just choose randomly between the two, but again, my vote (hopefully) isn't meant to get involved in a direct lynch. I know that sounds iffy, but it is at least better than a No Lynch vote.. which was something you put out TricMagic, but then funnily enough withdrawn to put a vote on me suddenly?

K, so very late to this thread today. And a lot to read. Tomorrow morning.

... or now I'd just move to No Lynch if possible, and recontextualize tomorrow.

If you wanted to wait until tomorrow (which is today IRL-wise), why put in a random no vote like that? Why not just pop-in, say that you're going to post for tomorrow, and leave it at that? Why that random no lynch vote? Really strange...

[Lidku]

Putting a vote on FallacyofUrist helps alleviate the calls from others for me to "vote" for someone.

If I didn't think you were a clueless newbie a statement like that is incredibly scummy.  Either way, my read on you is leaning scummier as the day has gone on.

At best your passivity is a detriment to town.  At worst you're scum trying to fly under the radar by not standing out.

And doing an outright No Lynch vote isn't scummy? You were one of the firsts to call out on TricMagic that doing that was a bad idea. And if anything, me becoming more moderately active than I was before is doing the opposite of being under the radar at the moment (to address your worst-case scenario of me).

It seems you favor aggression over passivity/neutrality as Town? That coincides with you for whatever reason favoring Lenglon, who is making a lot of random stabs at people who are most likely Town. It's just an off-handle playstyle and I don't think it favors Town as you seem to think.

[Lenglon]

NJW: Since you made clear that you don't want to push this argument as an alignment thing, that undermined the narrative I had going in my head for your motivations, and made the giant wall of quotes I was building purposeless, So instead I've switched to re-reading your posts over, and over, and over, trying to figure out why you keep calling me a liar without actually explaining the differences between my expression of your position and your actual position, and this is the best I can come up with:

your position is that you are assigning probability A to the likelyhood that Scum!Egan would make an extraordinary miller claim, and saying it is possible either way.
you are then assigning probability B to the likelyhood that Web would make a special miller role, and saying it is possible either way.
you are then assuming that B has happened, changing its probability to 100%
you are then claiming that A&B is so unlikely that it should be discounted, given B, which in reality means the odds are exactly the same as A in isolation, which you already said was possible either way.
This is absolutely self-contradictory, but it IS what you are claiming as far as I can tell.

In an attempt to make this into something that makes any sense, I've been assuming that the reasons you have been using to give A a low probability are in your mind strong enough to set the probability of A to said close enough to zero that it should be discounted. Never mind that you should be assuming Egan is town in all cases if that is what it is, it's an easier contradiction to keep separated in your own head than the odds of A being two different values at the same time when you're actively thinking about probabilities.

Said reasons you were using to set A to near-zero were the extraordinary nature of the claim. Naturally I've been pointing out that the extraordinary nature of the claim is not a good enough reason to do this, and that you should not set A to near-zero. Apparently you never did set A to near-zero, you just didn't actually think your own claim through and assumed bad faith and called me a liar for trying to make sense of it. If this still isn't your position, then maybe you could do us all a favor and stop spouting accusatory nonsense and instead clarify the difference between our understanding of your position and your real position like a functioning adult would have from the beginning.
Unvote

As I said before, and with far less convoluted bullshit than you're attempting to demand I mind-read from you, and which you never addressed in any way, you need to think your logic through to the contrapositive. If you assume that Scum!Egan implies Scum!FoU, then the contrapositive also applies. namely that Town!FoU implies Town!Egan. I do not accept either of these. It is Day 1. It is scum behavior to attempt to set up chain lynches. Wait for more information before attempting to group players like this.

And again, it is flat wrong to assume that making an extraordinary claim implies that the claim is true.
Now hopefully I can put this absurdity aside to attempt to get a last-second read of Tric before day's end.

[FallacyofUrist]

[spoiler=reads]Egan_BW: Lean scum. Highly dubious claim, admittedly. Many dubious points such as "haha we're both scum" with a nervy response from FoU as their first interaction, lack of suspects... and this. If scum, probably with FoU.
FallacyofUrist: Scum. I don't really think there's going to be an omega-miller and a specialised-miller in the same game. If there are, Web has essentially created a bastard game instead of anything like a newbie game. I stand by my reasoning about the unlikelihood of a miller gambit + specialised miller guess on Egan's part, so I'm pretty sure FoU is scum. They also claimed miller quite late, which is not a townie thing to do.

In conclusion: Kill Fallacy Now.

Posting from phone (you have no idea how annoying this formatting is to create) to point out that the “lack of suspects” thing NJW claims to suspect Egan for is one of the points I came up with, pretty much directly taken from my post. NJW does not mention this.

NJW’s case on me is incredibly weak and boils down to ‘claim is unlikely to be real’ and ‘didn’t claim miller right away’. Note that he doesn’t address my behavior, nor my hunting, nor my interactions. Only my claims.

Of his two points, the first isn’t strong enough to go on. Basically, he’s trying to outguess the mod. I trust webadict more than myself to produce fun, balanced, setups.

The second point has slightly more merit. However, I still claimed on Day 1, not later, and near the start of the day. Furthermore my miller attribute is tied up with other qualities of my role. If it was simple alignment millerism I would have claimed it in the first post I made, but it’s a more complex situation. My claim is wholly truthful, but it is attached to other things that I would rather not reveal yet. If you’re letting Spin get away with not describing his commuter stuff, then you can let me have this, at least for now.

Frankly I’m offended that this is why I got voted. NJW doesn’t even try to consider my behavior outside of my humorous, early day, interactions with Egan. It’s one third of a case trying to pretend it’s enough to justify a vote.

Cough cough Egan NJW scumteam cough cough.


Lidku: If you’re going to vote someone, do it because you think they’re scum, not because it’s just easier to leave a vote on them. Do you think I am mafia, with high or moderate confidence, or are you just voting so Lenglon doesn’t hunt you down?

[Maximum Spin]

No, that's about what I got. I'm just wondering why Fal over Egan?

I've been wondering this too, as well as the inverse. There seems to be a strong division into two camps over this question, and I find it weird.

Putting a vote on FallacyofUrist helps alleviate the calls from others for me to "vote" for someone.

If I didn't think you were a clueless newbie a statement like that is incredibly scummy.  Either way, my read on you is leaning scummier as the day has gone on.

At best your passivity is a detriment to town.  At worst you're scum trying to fly under the radar by not standing out. 

I was going to pick a post of Lidku's to respond to, but then this one showed up while I was typing... and this analysis is definitely completely spot-on. Lidku is being way too passive, and these weird little admissions are beyond scummy. If you didn't want to play, why are you here? At the same time, I can't understand why even noob scum would ADMIT to making a bullshit vote just to shut people up. Like, if nothing else, where is your partner in all this? Is nobody telling you to stop doing that? Or are you being bussed this early?

I guess if I wanted to go out on a limb, I could maybe see Tric, Egan, or Knightwing being too nervous to manage him (and maybe NJW? I don't have any basis to judge his management skills, but he seems less engaged), and Lenglon or Shakerag being willing to start bussing him from the start, with maybe Fallacy (and of course myself, for completeness) in that category too. ... I accidentally just expanded it to cover everyone, thereby making the statement useless. I was going to say "this is all highly speculative and shouldn't be relied on in any way" to begin with, so I'll leave it in, but, look, I don't always plan out where I'm going to end up at the end of the paragraph.

Based on how my morning posts have been in this game I feel like I should take up drinking coffee. Or possibly hard liquor.
ANYWAY.
Tric posted and I guess it's fine? I feel like something is a little off from normal Tric, but he may just be taking the game a little more seriously now.
Oh look, Lidku has posted more while I was typing. Uh... neutral. It's still nothing impressive but it comes off as noob town, or at least, if nothing else, solidly noob something. I'm trying really hard not to vote for the only true noob in the Beginner BYOR on day 1 here.

I'm going to temporarily unvote. I think I have formed an intention to vote on my usual firm pattern, but I want to see more of where other people are going first, like Lenglon's promised Tric read and NJW's response to everything.

[Lenglon]

Putting a vote on FallacyofUrist helps alleviate the calls from others for me to "vote" for someone.

If I didn't think you were a clueless newbie a statement like that is incredibly scummy.  Either way, my read on you is leaning scummier as the day has gone on.

At best your passivity is a detriment to town.  At worst you're scum trying to fly under the radar by not standing out.

And doing an outright No Lynch vote isn't scummy? You were one of the firsts to call out on TricMagic that doing that was a bad idea. And if anything, me becoming more moderately active than I was before is doing the opposite of being under the radar at the moment (to address your worst-case scenario of me).

It seems you favor aggression over passivity/neutrality as Town? That coincides with you for whatever reason favoring Lenglon, who is making a lot of random stabs at people who are most likely Town. It's just an off-handle playstyle and I don't think it favors Town as you seem to think.

Of course I'm making random stabs at people who are most likely town. most of the players here are town, and there's only two scum. There is nothing wrong with taking stabs at town players, up to a certain limit (and that limit is higher on Day 1 than it is on later days). The point of it all is to force people to be engaged and demonstrate what they think and especially WHY they think it. It tells you what behaviors are normal, and what behaviors are not. It tells you how invested players are in the process of finding the mafia. It shows who has doubts, concerns, questions, and generally is lacking information. Because the only people here that have the information they need, are the scumteam.

Additionally, the way I've been behaving on Day 1 is not how I plan to behave on Day 2 or later. It took an insane amount of work and investment, but the point of everything I was doing today was to establish the personalities and thought processes behind each of the usernames. On Day 2 and later, if I kept being this aggro for stuff this minor, it would be a problem, you're correct. But on Day 2, we're going to have a lot more mechanical information, and because of the Day 1 groundwork, we can combine that mechanical information with the personalities and behaviors shown during Day 1. Remember, on Day 2 we're probably going to have two different flips we can feed into our understanding of things. You should actually expect a shift in everyone's behavior tomorrow, and you will want to look at what has changed and attempt to figure out why it's changed. But if that groundwork didn't exist, you wouldn't have a baseline to compare against. That's the point of Day 1, establishing that baseline. For example, lets say that we lynch me today, and I flip scum. Well in that case you might want to look at who I gave free passes to on Day 1. Maybe I broke off a sequence of questions without following through on one particular person. Maybe I lept to the defense of someone that was having trouble defending themselves. If Scum!Lenglon played all of Day 1 perfectly then you won't find anything useful that way, but the more content there is to go through, the more chances Scum!Lenglon had to make mistakes. And nobody is perfect. Heck, maybe Scum!Lenglon isn't the one that made the mistake, maybe her scumbuddy did, and Scum!Lenglon might have tried to compensate for it! On top of that, you'll also get to compare everyone else's behavior shift after Scum!Lenglon flips. Maybe the scumbuddy will become more cautious because they're alone. Maybe they'll become more reckless. How would you know which to look for? Well, that would require having a basic understanding of the personalities of people wouldn't it? So compare to the Day 1 baseline. once again.

Day 1 is very difficult to handle in general because there is so little information to work with, and the Day 1 lynch almost never catches scum (and if you're going to policy-lynch someone, Day 1 is the time to do it as a result), but it's still actually a very important Day, just one that can't be mechanically solved in any meaningful way.

[Egan_BW]

After reviewing Egan's posts, just going by behavior alone?

The spooky, scummy thing is that they have no suspicions.

Good questions? Yes. Good interactions? Yes. Audacity? Yes.

But... they haven't expressed suspicion of anyone, not even once. Not a single 'this person is scummy'. Their current vote is a policy one at best, an easy pickoff at worst. I don't like that.

Egan_BW: Who's scum?

I don't know, as indicated by the fact that I haven't expressed much suspicion. Nobody's acting much differently than I'd expect based on their personality.

[Maximum Spin]

I don't know, as indicated by the fact that I haven't expressed much suspicion. Nobody's acting much differently than I'd expect based on their personality.

This should itself affect who you suspect. Can you tell me which players you should view with more suspicion under that premise?

[Egan_BW]

I don't know, as indicated by the fact that I haven't expressed much suspicion. Nobody's acting much differently than I'd expect based on their personality.

This should itself affect who you suspect. Can you tell me which players you should view with more suspicion under that premise?

Well, Fallacy of course. being that the normal behavior I've seen before from him is as scum.