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[notquitethere]

Web of Alliances

Using Toony's excellent tier list, with the addition of Roden's answer. Unlike his tiers, I haven't given any weighting to whether or not people would vote for themselves, as all players support themselves even if they don't want to be on the council.

Spoiler: Key (click to show/hide)

Red: no one trusts on the council.
Orange: One other person vouches for them
Light Blue: Two people vouch for them
Dark Blue: Three supporters
Dark Green: 4+ Supporters

If nothing else happens, the council will end up as NQT, Roden and then one of Toony or Reina. What else does this graph show us?


This is the web if we only take into account strong ties of people who mutually vouch for one another:



Could all five be Jade? If Onyx were in the sequence where would they be?

[notquitethere]

More questions that occur to me but I don't know the answer to:

- Would every Onyx put another Onyx in their council picks?
- Would they allow any Onyx to be completely friendless (i.e. Max & Egan)?
- Is Reina's reluctance to give picks alignment-indicative?

[webadict]

More questions that occur to me but I don't know the answer to:

- Would every Onyx put another Onyx in their council picks?
- Would they allow any Onyx to be completely friendless (i.e. Max & Egan)?
- Is Reina's reluctance to give picks alignment-indicative?

What do you think the answers are?

[reina]

Reina...is behind the Eightball.
@Reina: I switched my vote to Roden, so your question is irrelevant.

@jack: whoops i missed this

How do you feel about leading the vote tally? Are there any scenarios where you would ask your supporters to vote someone else today?

I am pleased I am leading the vote tally, I put myself forward for the council for precisely this reason. I could only see myself calling for someone else to get the nomination today if there were some ability that changed my understanding of the situation. My goal today (as it will be every day) is to get Jade onto the council, and so the most straightforward way of doing that is getting myself on the council to begin with.

How about you, would there be anything that would make you decide not to run as a candidate?

@notquitethere: I don't think anything would stop be from advocating for my own nomination. I would only ask someone not to vote for me in the scenario where the leading candidate smells scummy to me and there's a possiblity of swinging the vote by taking myself out of the running for the day.

@toony: sorry for not getting back to you about my council in time, I wanted more interactions to base my town reads off of

My council:
NQT - for being a point of focus today, they've held up really well. I don't mind nominating them day 1
myself - duh
ToonyMan - has been doing good detective work in the open. don't see much active campaigning but it helps that his candidate took an early vote lead

thank you to those that swapped over to me briefly, hoping to bring that energy into day 2.

[webadict]

My council:
NQT - for being a point of focus today, they've held up really well. I don't mind nominating them day 1
myself - duh
ToonyMan - has been doing good detective work in the open. don't see much active campaigning but it helps that his candidate took an early vote lead

thank you to those that swapped over to me briefly, hoping to bring that energy into day 2.

Copycat.

[Jim Groovester]

@toony: sorry for not getting back to you about my council in time, I wanted more interactions to base my town reads off of

I think this is pretty fishy honestly. I think delaying committing to a read one way or another is a scum tactic.

[Jim Groovester]

@toony: sorry for not getting back to you about my council in time, I wanted more interactions to base my town reads off of

I think this is pretty fishy honestly. I think delaying committing to a read one way or another is a scum tactic.

Like, what was insufficient about ToonyMan's and notquitethere's activity thus far in the game that warranted a delay on committing to your town read on them? They've posted plenty.

[Knightwing64]

@toony: sorry for not getting back to you about my council in time, I wanted more interactions to base my town reads off of

I think this is pretty fishy honestly. I think delaying committing to a read one way or another is a scum tactic.

Like, what was insufficient about ToonyMan's and notquitethere's activity thus far in the game that warranted a delay on committing to your town read on them? They've posted plenty.

I think they meant they wanted more individual conversations with them.

[Jim Groovester]

Thanks, Knightwing64, but I didn't want you to answer.

[Jim Groovester]

Huh, ok. I intentionally stopped posting to see if anyone would bring it up as one of my scum tells, but it kinda looks people just assume I'm town here. Or at least, no one saw it as particularly suspicious. I'm kinda surprised and disappointed honestly, I was hoping someone would accuse me of being a member of the Cabal, since it would've been a town tell.

'i was intentionally lurking'

 >:(

[reina]

@toony: sorry for not getting back to you about my council in time, I wanted more interactions to base my town reads off of

I think this is pretty fishy honestly. I think delaying committing to a read one way or another is a scum tactic.

Like, what was insufficient about ToonyMan's and notquitethere's activity thus far in the game that warranted a delay on committing to your town read on them? They've posted plenty.

The delay was longer than I was hoping, didn't get back to the thread quickly enough.

I had made a large readings post where I asked a bunch of pointed questions to people. I felt like it would be fair to give everyone a chance to respond to that before I committed to anything. Don't think i needed more data on toony or NQT specifically. If anything I was more interested in seeing how other people's voting choices might be impacted by my brief campaign. The timing and reasoning behind vote switches are going to be a large source of signal in this game.

It also felt like a hard question to answer because I seem to be reading people as scum more often than not.

In fact I definitely needed more on NQT and Toony before this. Just look at how I talked about both of them in my readings post:

I could see scum and town notquitethere both making that post, but I think town notquitethere more readily and easily makes that post than scum notquitethere does. Really I'd say any town player in general more readily makes that post than any scum player does. It comes across as fun rather than a careful and calculated move to advance an agenda.

I strongly agree. I think scum!NQT would be much more cowardly.

It's probably much easier for scum to make that opening if they know their buddy is going to immediately join and defend them

Will you be keeping your vote on NQT? Are you considering anybody else?

[webadict]

Huh, ok. I intentionally stopped posting to see if anyone would bring it up as one of my scum tells, but it kinda looks people just assume I'm town here. Or at least, no one saw it as particularly suspicious. I'm kinda surprised and disappointed honestly, I was hoping someone would accuse me of being a member of the Cabal, since it would've been a town tell.

'i was intentionally lurking'

 >:(

So brave, to make such a good attack.

[webadict]

Yeah, a'ight, Shorten. This is boring.

[notquitethere]

With Reina's council, we now have the complete D1 alliances:



Web/Jack/Egan form an interesting trifecta as the players who all deny the NQT-ascendancy (though Web and Jack have fallen in line with the vote), and they all favor Reina. And the support is mostly asymmetric: Reina doesn't favour her supporters, and other than Web liking Jack, they don't support one another.

It's too early to call teams etc. but this is an interesting dynamic worth re-examining in later days.


Pure Speculation

More questions that occur to me but I don't know the answer to:

1 Would every Onyx put another Onyx in their council picks?
2 Would they allow any Onyx to be completely friendless (i.e. Max & Egan)?
3 Is Reina's reluctance to give picks alignment-indicative?

1. Honestly Max is right, we could see relatively low co-ordination, especially on D1. Shooting from the hip, I expect they have a Face who they intend to put on the council, a Supporter of the Face and a Lurker who doesn't support either of them actively but could jump on later wagons.
2. Yeah, though probably both Max and Egan are not scum. It would be interesting if they are though. The three least supported players are Jim, Max and Egan: remove them and the web of sentiment holds up without anything changing.
3. I honestly don't know what's par for the course for Reina. Late picking could be something scum want to do, she's playing very cautiously here. I've been caught out on NAI procedural stuff before though so I'm not going to call it on this one thing.


Anyway, I don't anticipate any new insights for today, so let's shorten

[Egan_BW]

Uhh, Webadict then. It's not gonna win the vote but whatever. Also Shorten.