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[Strongpoint]

So, two major Ukrainian offensives are going steadily in Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

We are liberating village after village, town after town. Will it continue for a long time? Will this offensive end in a liberation of Kherson and/or Izyum? I don't think so. The offensive potential will be exhausted at some point and Russia will bring in their reserves. Also, rains will start in a few weeks

Still, those are major successes

[Starver]

I think it was yesterday that it was revealed that Russia had had to buy in huge amounts of weaponry from North Korea. I'm not sure that's good news for anyone. (Russia won't be happy having had to do so, the people of NK will suffer, China may he at the least bemused, etc... And ultimately Ukraine and its worldwide allie/supporters/worried-observers will have to deal with a Russian offensive that is significantly slower to run out of steam as predicted.)

[Strongpoint]

This will be a long war and Russia buying arms from North Korea (read from China) and Iran was very expected. As long as oil flows, they will have money to continue. And oil will flow.

[hector13]

Yeah the problem with the sanctions against Russia is… they’re not global. Western demand reduces, which lowers the price of Russian oil, which makes it more attractive to countries that don’t particularly care what’s going on, like India and China.

This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.

[Lord Shonus]

That doesn't mean that the sanctions don't hurt. The majority of what Russia's been able to procure is from nations that are already essentially blacklisted on the global market (NK and Iran), or via very small and deniable channels that straight-up *can't* come close to meeting the material demands of this war.


It is very likely that the reports of Russia buying from North Korea are in fact them buying North Korean weapons. China's shown themselves unwilling to openly supply Russia in any significant way, and that is going to extend to anything that can be traced to them. Computer chips and other commodities are one thing - weapons and ammunition with 中国北方工业集团有限公司 stamped on the side are something else. Meanwhile, NK does have a sizable armaments industry (it is one of their only real industries), and a big chunk of the global black market is them. More importantly, a huge amount of what they produce is ammunition-compatible with what Russia is already using, as well as the compatible ammunition. The latter is probably the most significant contribution they could make, because it is increasingly clear that Russia's starting to face severe ammunition shortages due to the mysterious stockpile detonations.

[Loud Whispers]

Yeah the problem with the sanctions against Russia is… they’re not global. Western demand reduces, which lowers the price of Russian oil, which makes it more attractive to countries that don’t particularly care what’s going on, like India and China.

This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.

Well that and the fact that Germany, France and Italy were keen to keep buying Russian gas at high prices even after the invasion didn't exactly send Russia the right message

[brewer bob]

This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.

I understood that the gas burning was most likely due to not having the capacity to store it, or operators fearing that shutting down would cause technical issues to start up again, or possibly some other difficulties, like missing some equipment they can't get hold of due to the embargo?

[Starver]

...or "Command Economy" jobsworthness resulting in a significant lack of flexibility/common-sense in the light of top-down political pressures.

[EuchreJack]

I think it was yesterday that it was revealed that Russia had had to buy in huge amounts of weaponry from North Korea. I'm not sure that's good news for anyone. (Russia won't be happy having had to do so, the people of NK will suffer, China may he at the least bemused, etc... And ultimately Ukraine and its worldwide allie/supporters/worried-observers will have to deal with a Russian offensive that is significantly slower to run out of steam as predicted.)

Nah, that's great news, especially with the invasion not even 7 months old.
1) North Korea's equipment isn't necessarily modern in any way, so it's a further sign of Russian despiration.
2) Most of the times North Korea causes trouble, it's because they're suffering economically AND they use their military arms as leverage. So ironically this should actually help World Peace.
...or maybe I'm being a bit optimistic on this point.

[Loud Whispers]

I think it was yesterday that it was revealed that Russia had had to buy in huge amounts of weaponry from North Korea. I'm not sure that's good news for anyone. (Russia won't be happy having had to do so, the people of NK will suffer, China may he at the least bemused, etc... And ultimately Ukraine and its worldwide allie/supporters/worried-observers will have to deal with a Russian offensive that is significantly slower to run out of steam as predicted.)

It is at least a positive sign that Rusisa's best logistical plan is buying shells made with 19th century technology from the other side of the planet after so many ammo dumps went caput

[Starver]

It's the desperation that I take as a bad sign. Russia is stooping so low[1], but seemingly unashamedly thus. So no chance of doing some "ha ha, didn't mean it!", declare Mission Accomplished (whether believably or not) and work at patching up all the self-harm injuries upon itself, and other cuts and bruises suffered whilst blundering around like a drunken blindman left unattended in an ad hoc knife-shop.

But that was just my initial knee-jerk thoughts (extemporised into passable prose[2], naturally) when I first heard of such happenings. It does need modifying in light of further logical deductions arising from additional facts and suggestions. Still not much changed in its core, though.


[1] In the "good old days", it (and/or China) would be helping out regimes like NK. And it's not even somewhere like Belarus (a virtual province of the New.S.S.R.) but one in China's sphere of influence.

[2] Rather than the original internal representation of those thoughts, which I suppose 'looked' more like a vague and yet fully animated flow-chart/circuit-diagram with flashing colours and floating markers, all representing abstract feelings in ways that might only be obvious to myself even if I used Blender rather than a textbox to convey it to any other minds that care to learn of it.

[EuchreJack]

THIS is the Emotional Responses thread!
Knee-jerk thoughts are PERMISSABLE.

[anewaname]

About the Russia/North Korea deal... from this NPR article

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

For Russia, North Korea is likely another good option for its ammunitions supply, because the North keeps a significant stockpile of shells, many of them copies of Soviet-era ones.

North Korea "may represent the single biggest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities to further supplies," said Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Lee Illwoo, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, said both North and South Korea — split along the world's most heavily fortified border for more than 70 years — keep tens of millions of artillery shells each.

The ammunition for both their ballistic and rocket artillery probably hasn't advanced that much, outside of the rocket guidance systems.

[JoshuaFH]

I'm not an expert, but if I know anything about North Korea, it's that they don't have very many good things going for them. They'll want to squeeze that kinda deal for absolutely everything that it's worth. I imagine they'll sell Russia those armaments gladly... starting with the oldest and most poorly maintained ones, counterfeit ones made of subpar materials, barely functioning ones, anything that will be enough to guarantee profits while not ending Russia's little war problem that it's trying to fix.

[King Zultan]

I imagine they'll sell Russia those armaments gladly... starting with the oldest and most poorly maintained ones, counterfeit ones made of subpar materials, barely functioning ones, anything that will be enough to guarantee profits while not ending Russia's little war problem that it's trying to fix.

Using Russia as a defective munitions disposal site seems like the best use for all the old crap laying around.