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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support  (Read 135707 times)

MaxTheFox

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1035 on: August 30, 2022, 02:11:09 am »

Apparently we do.

What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.

What makes you think a violent uprising will be more successful than a non-violent one, given that Putin controls all the apparatus to put a violent uprising down, from law enforcement, to the military and intelligence services?
What makes you think a non-violent uprising will succeed at all?

If the people become radicalized enough, I feel a violent revolt will be more likely to succeed, especially if part of the army and governors side with the rebels.

Why would they side with the rebels when they’re being paid by the government? Equally so, radicalized people don’t magically become de-radicalized when they win. If there’s factional disputes, theey’ll turn on each other, too.

Non-violent uprisings have advantages over violent ones, as per the article I linked earlier:

  • More people will be able to take part because it’s not limited to healthy people able and willing to engage in violence.
  • Able to be organized and discussed in the open because you’re not talking about engaging in violence against the government, plus no need to source weapons.
  • Security personnel may be less inclined to put down a non-violent protest by force because they’re not being violent, plus the risk of hurting loved ones because of the aforementioned “open to all” nature of non-violent protest.
  • Media coverage will be harder to spin against the protesters if they’re non-violent, compared to a violent one. Equally so, violence against non-violent protesters is going to be much harder to justify in the media, even if it’s state-controlled. Word of mouth from protesters and observers will get around

I think non-violent protests are harder to put down than violent ones. A violent protest justifies a violent response. A non-violent protest will probably get more support if it’s put down violently, which rather defeats the purpose of putting it down in the first place.
1.1 Armies do betray governments during revolutions.
1.2 Well tough shit I guess but we can handle that.
2.1 More people might be able to take part, but it won't do shit because the government will just ignore them.
2.2 They did put down non-violent protests and they will do it again. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again repeatedly and expecting a different result.
2.3 The media does a good job at spinning non-violent protestors as rabble-rousers anyways. Fuck the media, just kill them all.
3. There will be a violent response anyways. You know fuck all about the Russian government, clearly.

Good job, your points helped me articulate why I am anti-peaceful-"revolution".

Kill.
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hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1036 on: August 30, 2022, 02:12:24 am »

Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1037 on: August 30, 2022, 02:36:43 am »

Anyone who claims that non-violent protests can work against authoritarian regimes should look at Belarus 2020, the most pathetic revolution that ever happened.


There are ZERO authoritarian regimes that were removed without violence or threat of violence. A huge crowd that goes out to demand change, works only when people in power understand that there WILL BE a violent answer to violence or even a violent answer to ignoring demands. Also, most of "velvet" or "colored" revolutions had partial support from people in army\police\special forces\etc
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1038 on: August 30, 2022, 02:42:54 am »

Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.

The thing you're missing here: an Authoritarian government is going to respond to any challenge to its rule with said trained soldiers. That's literally Max's entire point, that non-violent resistance only has a CHANCE of working in countries that actually give a shit about what their people think.

Your point that the odds of violent resistance has a low chance of succeeding is reasonable, but you have to understand that what Max is saying here is that in countries like this, the violent option is the one more likely to do anything.

Imagine if you will a government that will deploy soldiers to gun down any protest against its regime. Now imagine how that's likely to go if the protestors being shot have nothing but signs to hold up vs. if they came expecting a fight from the beginning. If the government is going to just murder you in cold blood for speaking up either way, what do you think are your chances if you just stand there and take a bullet to the face instead of shooting back? The odds may be low, but zero is a pretty low bar to clear here.

We already have a near-example of this difference here in the US despite being a country that is obstinately a democracy, where armed protests have generally gotten a much less hostile response from police. This example IS muddled by the fact that the armed protests tend to be right-wing and the cops themselves are right-wing, but if we didn't have our pesky partisan clusterfuck fucking things up and the police attitude was consistent, I would still expect armed protests to either be given more leeway if that consistency was in the "please don't shoot us like you don't shoot them" direction, or be harder for police to quell if things went the "please shoot them like you shoot us" direction instead.
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MaxTheFox

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1039 on: August 30, 2022, 03:19:04 am »

Yeah. This is something like, but not quite is, a false dichotomy.
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King Zultan

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1040 on: August 30, 2022, 03:40:47 am »

Seems like no matter what happens a bunch of people are gonna die.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1041 on: August 30, 2022, 04:43:52 am »

Yes. Nothing good will happen in Russia. Society this immoral will either collapse in a bloody civil war or start a global nuclear war.

It may take many years but I see no other possible outcome for Russia.
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1042 on: August 30, 2022, 06:24:19 am »

Peaceful protest largely relies on the threat of nonpeaceful protest.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1043 on: August 30, 2022, 07:30:34 am »

Anyway... Back to the frontline news. Ukraine got better at OPSEC and getting reliable info is hard but a major offensive is continuing, near frontline hospitals are getting full of wounded, Russian bases and depot keep blowing UP, NASA's wildfire  map shows A LOT of new fires in the region... There are some rumors about liberated villages but those are exactly that - rumors.

September has the potential to be the deadliest month to date. Offensives aren't safe business...
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MorleyDev

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1044 on: August 30, 2022, 10:24:01 am »

They say never invade Russia in the winter, so if Russia claims Ukraine a part of Russia, and the war lasts until winter...
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Great Order

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1045 on: August 30, 2022, 10:28:17 am »

I'd say it'd be good for Ukraine since Russian armour would start sinking in the mud, but it's not like it'd been a good time for Russian armour anyways...
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KittyTac

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1046 on: August 30, 2022, 10:48:44 am »

As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.
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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1047 on: August 30, 2022, 10:51:09 am »

Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.

Considering how bad Russia has been throughout this entire war and how undersupplied they are due to sanctions... I don't see how you can come to any inference that any Russian insurgents against the current Russian government, wouldn't have a half-way decent chance..
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1048 on: August 30, 2022, 11:20:44 am »

Considering how bad Russia has been throughout this entire war and how undersupplied they are due to sanctions... I don't see how you can come to any inference that any Russian insurgents against the current Russian government, wouldn't have a half-way decent chance..

To be fair, suppressing mundane oppressed citizens and actually fighting a war are two different roles, and authoritarian regimes tend to have a lot more experience with the former. Same with how a military can have different effectiveness in a straightforward slugfest compared to facing an insurgency, or historically how a force might dominant at ground warfare yet have poor naval performance (or vice-versa), etc.
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hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary Edition
« Reply #1049 on: August 30, 2022, 12:55:12 pm »

Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.

The thing you're missing here: an Authoritarian government is going to respond to any challenge to its rule with said trained soldiers. That's literally Max's entire point, that non-violent resistance only has a CHANCE of working in countries that actually give a shit about what their people think.

Your point that the odds of violent resistance has a low chance of succeeding is reasonable, but you have to understand that what Max is saying here is that in countries like this, the violent option is the one more likely to do anything.

Imagine if you will a government that will deploy soldiers to gun down any protest against its regime. Now imagine how that's likely to go if the protestors being shot have nothing but signs to hold up vs. if they came expecting a fight from the beginning. If the government is going to just murder you in cold blood for speaking up either way, what do you think are your chances if you just stand there and take a bullet to the face instead of shooting back? The odds may be low, but zero is a pretty low bar to clear here.

We already have a near-example of this difference here in the US despite being a country that is obstinately a democracy, where armed protests have generally gotten a much less hostile response from police. This example IS muddled by the fact that the armed protests tend to be right-wing and the cops themselves are right-wing, but if we didn't have our pesky partisan clusterfuck fucking things up and the police attitude was consistent, I would still expect armed protests to either be given more leeway if that consistency was in the "please don't shoot us like you don't shoot them" direction, or be harder for police to quell if things went the "please shoot them like you shoot us" direction instead.

And my point is that violent uprisings don’t work that well either, and even if they do manage their short-term objective of listing someone from power, you now have leaders that have used violence to achieve their position and are thus going to use violence to maintain that power, you have a precedent set that all it takes to win power is to be be more violent than the last person, and various groups of people who are now being oppressed because they were fighting against the winners, whose only option now is to use violence in return.

It is self-defeating at best.

Take Syria. Armed uprising in 2011, still fighting a civil war 11 years hence, the groups that are fighting the government are also fighting amongst themselves because while they may share the goal of ousting the incumbent, they all have different ideas of what should happen afterward. That sounds really constructive and conducive to a healthy situation at the war’s (eventual?) conclusion.

Take Libya. Armed uprising in 2011 against Gaddafi succeeded after almost a year of fighting. Some groups refused to disarm, causing tensions, elections were held in 2014 and various groups supported by various foreign influences got upset with each other over the results and the aftermath, and a further 6 years of fighting ensued. Elections due later this year.

Take Tunisia. A country considered among the most repressive in the world in 2011, 4 weeks of protest resulted in the authoritarian leader fleeing to Saudi Arabia. 11 years hence there is still work to be done,  but there’s a bit less outright violence than Syria and Libya.

Tunisia may be an ideal in terms of how it non-violent protest turns out, but it does seem to have more pleasant outcomes than violence when it does work.

But whatever, kill away. If the Russians are fighting each other they’ll be too busy to fight anyone else.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

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