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[Strongpoint]

Also, Russia will inspect vessels going into Ukrainian ports (formally, it is a joint Ukrainian, Turkish, UN, Russian inspection but de facto it is Russian) and this looks like saying "yes, we agree that Russia owns the Black Sea"

Also, Ukraine will demine its ports, giving Russians some good opportunities for amphibious landings.

Also, ANY agreement with Russia* is bad by definition. Russia will break any agreement at any moment they will find it beneficial for them with no consequences whatsoever. While for Ukraine it is a real agreement.

*I also dislike how our diplomats think that Ukrainians are idiots. "We have no agreement with Russia! We have an agreement with Turkey and UN! It just happens that Russia has its own agreement with Turkey and UN!"

[hector13]

Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.

But yeah, Ukraine and Russia signed separate and identical agreements. There’s no means to punish Russia if they break the agreements though, beyond angry finger-wagging in the international community.

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.

Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through

[brewer bob]

There’s no means to punish Russia if they break the agreements though, beyond angry finger-wagging in the international community.

Russia is like a overgrown schoolyard bully who never forgets to mention how tragic total war would be for humanity and pats the nuclear bomb in their pocket.

It really feels like there's some angry teenagers of the worst kind running that country.

[Lord Shonus]

Also, Ukraine will demine its ports, giving Russians some good opportunities for amphibious landings.

An opposed amphibious landing was among the most difficult military operations conducted in WWII, which is why the largest naval armada in history still relied heavily on misdirection (successful, the bulk of the German mobile forces were at Calais on June 6, 1944) to drive as many enemy forces somewhere else as possible.

It is far harder now. Added to the advantages of the defeneder are long-range shipkiller missiles such as the Neptune and Harpoon systems that Ukraine has already killed major fleet assets with, as well as ATGMs that are more than capable of turning a landing boat or hovercraft into a blood-sacrifice to Posiedon in an instant. Countering that requires massive naval firepower (which Russia may never have had, and certainly doesn't now that Moskva is at the bottom of the sea), overwhelming air superiority (which Russia doesn't have - Ukranian-operated SAM systems and the stubborn air force has made the sky neutral at worst), or complete and total surprise (Which Russia doesn't have because Uncle Sam is whispering Russia's every move to Ukraine's ears).

An amphibious assault sounds scary, but if Russia ever tried it the odds are overwhelming that the only result would be the annihilation of Russian naval infantry in the region, and possibly the end of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea.

This agreement is no threat to Ukraine. And it goes a long way toward blunting one of Russia's few remaining soft-power weapons - if that grain gets where it is going, Russia won't be able to point at starvation in the Middle East and Africa and blame it on Ukraine.


In other news, I've seen some reports that Russian troops in the Kherson region have been cut off and are requesting evacuation corridors, which Ukraine has flatly (and correctly) refused.

[Strongpoint]

And today morning Russia attacked Odesa port with missiles to celebrate the agreement.

edit - ... reportedly killing workers who were loading a grain shipment...


This deal is the most idiotic decision of the Ukrainian government since the beginning of the war but I suspect that they were pressured to do it by our allies and then it is the most idiotic decision of our allies. Russia can now conveniently export their (and "their") grain and it is the only real effect of the agreement. Little to no grain Ukrainian grain will be actually sold via Black Sea and\or transportation costs will be so high that burning it in ports would be more profitable.

[Lord Shonus]

Russia's just thrown away months of propaganda work - they've been pushing hard in the effected regions on the narrative that it was mean old Ukraine that was holding up food. Breaking this agreement destroys that while they gain nothing - everyone involved in the deal can now just tear it up and return to the way things were two weeks ago.

[King Zultan]

Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.

Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through

But wouldn't that mean the Russians could get that info and figure out how to get to the ports?

But than again I guess this doesn't matter now that they've blown up the port.

[Quarque]

Russia can now conveniently export their (and "their") grain and it is the only real effect of the agreement. Little to no grain Ukrainian grain will be actually sold via Black Sea and\or transportation costs will be so high that burning it in ports would be more profitable.

I was thinking the same as Lord Shonus: doesn't this attack cancel the deal?

edit: according to Reuters the deal is now "at risk" - I guess that is one way to put it..

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.

Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through

But wouldn't that mean the Russians could get that info and figure out how to get to the ports?

But than again I guess this doesn't matter now that they've blown up the port.

Lightly damaged the port is a more accurate statement. Also, the killed workers I mentioned earlier weren't confirmed by any reputable source


The Secretary-General unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa. 

Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative. 

Uh no,  Russia is unequivocally condemned! They are in trouble, right? Right? (insert the Anakin and Padme meme)

[brewer bob]

And today morning Russia attacked Odesa port with missiles to celebrate the agreement.

Well that happened quicker than expected.

Surprised of it? No.

[Strongpoint]

ANKARA, July 23 (Reuters) - Turkey's defence minister said on Saturday Russian officials had told Ankara that Moscow had "nothing to do" with strikes on Ukraine's Odesa port.

"In our contact with Russia, the Russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack, and that they were examining the issue very closely and in detail," Defence Minister Hulusai Akar said in a statement.

_________________

Russia is as hilarious as ever.

[Great Order]

Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.

[Quarque]

Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.

Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. 

[EuchreJack]

Major General: Prepare Missile Attack against the Port.
Lieutenant: But sir, we have an agreement with Ukraine on the Port, and our ordered attack predates the agreement.
Major General: Son, we follow orders in my unit. Fire the missiles!

....

But to be honest, I wouldn't doubt that Russian High Command would knowingly and intentionally attack the port that was just demilitarized as part of the agreement, and in fact that could have been the whole point of the agreement. I don't trust Russians.

While it would be incredibly easy to just blame President Biden and move on with my life, politicians are influenced by pressure, and there was a lot of pressure to get the grain flowing regardless of the cost or reliability of Russia.  So even if the politicians never expected Russia to honor the agreement, they sorta had no choice but to agree to it.