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[nenjin]

I have to wonder too, how much of what we see in Russia domestically and militarily stems from fatalism.

[brewer bob]

tensions between ethnic groups of Russia are very, very real and detoriation of the economy won't make it better.

I don't know what's the current situation after all the "anti-extremist" measures against neo-Nazis (of course used against Putin's opponents in the end), but in the 2000's (90's too, I guess?) things were very messed up with all the neo-Nazi thugs/gangs murdering people. Hard to imagine that general attitudes have changed much since then.

Edit: It's not so long since a pro-Kremlin party organized a meeting for the European far-right in 2015 (attendants included Greek Golden Dawn fascists, British BNP members and German neo-Nazis). It's also not a big secret that Russia has funded European far-right populists (of whom many are outright fascists).

[MaxTheFox]

The minorities have it bad, but they are not nearly as large as Strongpoint is implying. A civil war would most likely be on ideological, not ethnic lines, with ethnic separatist states getting mopped up by whoever wins.

Putin will likely fall by the end of the year. No idea what happens next. If everything goes to shit, I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable so I can flee there and from there to somewhere else.

[Strongpoint]

The minorities have it bad, but they are not nearly as large as Strongpoint is implying.

Even according to the Russian latest 2010s census, 20% of citizens of Russia are of different ethnicity. Even if assume that half of the rest are Russians in anything but name, we are still talking about around 10M people to stir trouble. It is A LOT

But the Russian census is questionable (like in the 2002 census there were 3M Ukrainians in Russia, in 2010 - 2M. What happened to 1M of people during 8 years? Political climate changed, that's what happened). 12 years is enough for a new generation to grow up (and ethnic minorities have higher fertility). There were significant migration to Russia from Central Asia (both legal and illegal)

[Starver]

[...] I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable [...]

Not to besmirch a whole country (either of them), but to consider Kazachstan as more stable than one's own... It's almost humorous, in the circumstances, except that it involves real people's livelihoods (including yours, Max).


No serious point, for fear that I'm making it a far too serious point, but it gave me a somewhat morbid chuckle to read that being said.

[Strongpoint]

[...] I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable [...]

Not to besmirch a whole country (either of them), but to consider Kazachstan as more stable than one's own... It's almost humorous, in the circumstances, except that it involves real people's livelihoods (including yours, Max).


No serious point, for fear that I'm making it a far too serious point, but it gave me a somewhat morbid chuckle to read that being said.

We are talking about the country that got hundreds of protestors shot dead a few months ago. We are talking about the regime that was saved only by a swift Russian military intervention.

Kazakhstan (and Central Asia in general) will be anything but stable should Russia destabilize.

[MaxTheFox]

The minorities have it bad, but they are not nearly as large as Strongpoint is implying.

Even according to the Russian latest 2010s census, 20% of citizens of Russia are of different ethnicity. Even if assume that half of the rest are Russians in anything but name, we are still talking about around 10M people to stir trouble. It is A LOT

But the Russian census is questionable (like in the 2002 census there were 3M Ukrainians in Russia, in 2010 - 2M. What happened to 1M of people during 8 years? Political climate changed, that's what happened). 12 years is enough for a new generation to grow up (and ethnic minorities have higher fertility). There were significant migration to Russia from Central Asia (both legal and illegal)

Many of those are e.g Tatars who are basically Russified at this point. It's way more than half. I don't really see them going independent. Seems unlikely.

As for Kazakhstan, Tokaev recently passed a few reforms in response to the unrest apparently. He knows he's doomed if and when Russia catches fire if he keeps up the extreme authoritarianism. At the very least they won't prevent international flights out of Kazakhstan. I don't intend to stay there very long.

[Strongpoint]

I know little about Tatars but I do know that in the 1992 Tatarstani sovereignty referendum 62% voted yes (75% in rural areas) and I doubt that 30 years is enough to turn this into 0%.

[MaxTheFox]

Heard about that. Didn't hear a word about separatist sentiment in the present however.

[Strongpoint]

Heard about that. Didn't hear a word about separatist sentiment in the present however.

Well, it is hard to evaluate separatist sentiments when expressing separatist sentiments is a criminal offense.

[MaxTheFox]

Heard about that. Didn't hear a word about separatist sentiment in the present however.

Well, it is hard to evaluate separatist sentiments when expressing separatist sentiments is a criminal offense.

And yet we know about separatism in other large countries, even though separatism is also illegal in most/all of them.

[Starver]

Degrees of separatism, and degrees of suppression.

It isn't illegal to be a member of the Scottish National Party (arguably separatist), nor... any more... Sinn Fein[1][2] in Northern Ireland. Plaid Cymru is a valid Welsh party (I think there's others, like Plaid Glyndŵr), and Mebyon Kernow does that job for the P-Celtic peninsula that is just to the south. They are all 'separatist',

Whereas look at the pro-democracy/remain-unsubsumed movements in Hong Kong. Pretty much legislated out of existence, even the slightest "actually, I like it how it was" that really isn't anything comparable to actual regionalised nationalism.


Though I really wasn't considering the threat of separatism/nationalism, it was just that the Kazakh government is still very much of a variety of government where "stability" is only through some degree of oppression.

Now, to you, Max, you might calculate that it's a valid move to make if Russia goes to a level of intollerability. That even if it drives the Kazakh situation in the same direction that you'll get a grace period as you make a transition to whatever the follow-up destination is that you have in mind. But from what I heard of government crackdowns at the beginning of this year, any notable 'stability' compared to Russia is a "damning with faint praise" situation. You probably have your ears closer to the ground than us, of course, assuming you're not being kept in the dark by censorship, so it's just a 'typical western' viewpoint of mine that might be wrong.



((BTW, one of the rounds in a particularly entertaining celebrity quiz show thingummy is "Where Is Kazakhstan?". Because Kazakhstan is a good placeholder concept for "I know it exists, but couldn't find it on a map", which is the general premise of the round. i.e. finding things on a map, though I don't think it has ever been Kazakhstan... or the Central African Republic.   For the ninth-largest country in the world (and with many other interesting distinctions), that says more about those who couldn't answer such a question than about Kazakhstan itself!))


Anyhoo. I hope you never need to go with your plans, but also that they go as well as possible if you do actually have to commit to them. It also makes me realise how relatively comfortable my own situation is...


[1] In fact, they're the ones that are being least childish, at the moment, compared with the non-separatist (by current standards!) DUP.
[2] However, being a member of any recognisable flavour of /New/Provisional/Whatever IRA is not. Links to SF aren't quite as joined-at-the-hip as they were, which was how the political arm stopped being proscribed.

[Cthulhu]

I could point out kazakhstan on a map.  I actually spent a few weeks trying to learn to name every country on the map a few years ago.  I got pretty good, I can probably do 95% of europe, a good chunk of africa, south america, etc.  I bet I can get at least 60-70% on a world map countries test.  I'll do one now and come back.

75% though this isn't a complete map.  White is first try, orange is second or third, red is missed, green isn't in the quiz.  Some of those were misclicks I swear.  Also I know a bunch of the smaller ones, I bet I would've got a better score if they were in

[Strongpoint]

The Institute for the Study of War warns that Putin probably will annex the occupied parts of south and east Ukraine and use the move to threaten Ukraine and allies with a nuclear attack, the Guardian reports

Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed. China will get bigger real fast. And countries like Iran will do ANYTHING to get their own nukes

_______________

Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)

[Starver]

Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)

The possibility is something that Russia is supposed to be prepared for. Supposed to be. This doesn't look like the orderly "50 metres apart, affixed with snorkels", at first glance. Perhaps someone decided to wing it (after or during the bridging unit being targetted), perhaps the attack precipitated matters and the crews prefered a bit of 'soft water' protection over standing in the 'open' under bombardment.

I suspect (totally without professional experience in these matters) that a failure to properly train and reherse might have been part of the issue. Still, if the crews have the emergency breathing gear (if not the chance to have a go in the escape-simulators) there might not have been so much risk of actual drowning, in the undoubted mayhem, leaving it up to opposition artillery/dronestrikes/whatever to cause any subsequent casualties.