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[EuchreJack]

It is interesting exactly who was targeted. It was the Propaganda people, a NON-military target.
1) There is no tactical reason for these targets to die, so it probably wasn't Ukrainian, American or British Intelligence.
2) There is a false flag rational in that Russia loses someone of little value to the war effort in exchange for building up some sort of outrage that they can leverage for a formal declaration of war.
3) There is a more blatant Revolutionary reason: Leftists are showing their commitment to eliminating the Russian Far-Right.

The fact that Russia blames Ukraine backs means its is more likely to be a false flag or actual revolution.  There have been reports of Partisan activity in Russia before now.

Ultimately, we're left to see what the National Republican Army does next.

[Strongpoint]

If anyone is interested, I found a decent (not perfect) translation of the manifesto of this NRA

Spoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)

STATEMENT OF THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN ARMY (NRA) OF 08/21/2022

We, Russian activists, military and politicians, now partisans and fighters of the National Republican Army, outlaw warmongers, robbers and oppressors of the peoples of Russia!

We declare President Putin a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death.

Poverty and coffins for some, palaces for others – the essence of his policy.

We believe that disenfranchised people have the right to rebel against tyrants.

Putin will be deposed and destroyed by us!

Our goal is to stop the destruction of Russia and its neighbors, to stop the activities of a handful of Kremlin businessmen who have sucked on the wealth of our people and are committing crimes today inside and outside the country.

We declare officials of the Government of the Russian Federation and regional administrations to be accomplices of the usurper – those who do not resign their powers will be destroyed by us.

We announce businessmen who earn their money on corruption and connections with officials – traitors to the Motherland and accomplices of the usurper. The property of those who do not repent and do not speak publicly against this government and its war, and they themselves will be destroyed by us.

We declare employees of power structures as accomplices of the usurper. Those who do not lay down their arms and take off their shoulder straps will be destroyed by us.

We declare military cargoes and the cargoes of those who earn money in the war and help it financially – legal targets that we will destroy.

We remember the bombings of houses in Russia that brought Putin to power. We know that the regime will not stop at any of the most heinous crimes. And we declare: we carry out actions only against persons of this power. We will not attack civilian objects and civilians, and if Putin’s security forces will make such provocations and attribute the victims to us, do not believe them!

We call on the soldiers of the Russian army to stop shooting at our brothers from other countries – Georgia, Syria and others.

We call on all Russians to join our ranks and raise the white-blue-white flag of the new Russia instead of the tricolor disgraced by Putin’s government.

We call on those who are ready to fight to follow our example and overthrow this inhuman, hypocritical and anti-people regime!

We consider it unacceptable that Russians have begun to be defamed all over the world because of war crimes committed by those who have neither nationality nor fatherland, and who love only money and power.

The world is not an enemy of Russia, and Russia is not an enemy of humanity, and we will prove this by deeds.

We will give protection to all who follow our call.

All those who carry out our program up to the change of regime are exempt from liability under the laws of the usurper.

After our victory, we will immediately release all those illegally convicted by the Putin authorities.

We will give freedom to all the peoples inhabiting Russia and build a new society – a society without oligarchs, without corruption, without arbitrary officials, without humiliating poverty.

A society in which everyone is rewarded according to their work. Society without wars and violence.

A society in which power will belong to the people, where citizens will choose their own leaders and organize the life of their cities and villages themselves.

A society in which the rulers will not be able to sacrifice human lives for their own greatness, but will think about education, medicine and scientific progress.

A society in which everyone will be proud that he was born on the territory of Russia and will want to live in it!

Long live Free Russia!

Wherever you are – fight like us, fight with us, fight better than us!

Let’s cleanse our Motherland from filth! Victory will be ours!
 

Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.

[MaxTheFox]

If anyone is interested, I found a decent (not perfect) translation of the manifesto of this NRA

Spoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)

STATEMENT OF THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN ARMY (NRA) OF 08/21/2022

We, Russian activists, military and politicians, now partisans and fighters of the National Republican Army, outlaw warmongers, robbers and oppressors of the peoples of Russia!

We declare President Putin a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death.

Poverty and coffins for some, palaces for others – the essence of his policy.

We believe that disenfranchised people have the right to rebel against tyrants.

Putin will be deposed and destroyed by us!

Our goal is to stop the destruction of Russia and its neighbors, to stop the activities of a handful of Kremlin businessmen who have sucked on the wealth of our people and are committing crimes today inside and outside the country.

We declare officials of the Government of the Russian Federation and regional administrations to be accomplices of the usurper – those who do not resign their powers will be destroyed by us.

We announce businessmen who earn their money on corruption and connections with officials – traitors to the Motherland and accomplices of the usurper. The property of those who do not repent and do not speak publicly against this government and its war, and they themselves will be destroyed by us.

We declare employees of power structures as accomplices of the usurper. Those who do not lay down their arms and take off their shoulder straps will be destroyed by us.

We declare military cargoes and the cargoes of those who earn money in the war and help it financially – legal targets that we will destroy.

We remember the bombings of houses in Russia that brought Putin to power. We know that the regime will not stop at any of the most heinous crimes. And we declare: we carry out actions only against persons of this power. We will not attack civilian objects and civilians, and if Putin’s security forces will make such provocations and attribute the victims to us, do not believe them!

We call on the soldiers of the Russian army to stop shooting at our brothers from other countries – Georgia, Syria and others.

We call on all Russians to join our ranks and raise the white-blue-white flag of the new Russia instead of the tricolor disgraced by Putin’s government.

We call on those who are ready to fight to follow our example and overthrow this inhuman, hypocritical and anti-people regime!

We consider it unacceptable that Russians have begun to be defamed all over the world because of war crimes committed by those who have neither nationality nor fatherland, and who love only money and power.

The world is not an enemy of Russia, and Russia is not an enemy of humanity, and we will prove this by deeds.

We will give protection to all who follow our call.

All those who carry out our program up to the change of regime are exempt from liability under the laws of the usurper.

After our victory, we will immediately release all those illegally convicted by the Putin authorities.

We will give freedom to all the peoples inhabiting Russia and build a new society – a society without oligarchs, without corruption, without arbitrary officials, without humiliating poverty.

A society in which everyone is rewarded according to their work. Society without wars and violence.

A society in which power will belong to the people, where citizens will choose their own leaders and organize the life of their cities and villages themselves.

A society in which the rulers will not be able to sacrifice human lives for their own greatness, but will think about education, medicine and scientific progress.

A society in which everyone will be proud that he was born on the territory of Russia and will want to live in it!

Long live Free Russia!

Wherever you are – fight like us, fight with us, fight better than us!

Let’s cleanse our Motherland from filth! Victory will be ours!
 

Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.

Based if true. If something starts, I will fight for them. If they're real.

inhales a whole bag of hopium

[brewer bob]

I can't say if the NRA exists or not (okay, maybe the National Rifle Association exists, but I'd like to think it doesn't), but there's quite a few Russians who are currently incarcerated for actions against the war.

The Moscow ABC (Anarchist Black Cross, a prisoner solidarity group) lists some of them in the anti-war section, in case if someone is interested (note: the prisoners are not necessarily anarchists, if it matters). The actions they're accused of are also mentioned there, and their prison addresses if you want to send letters to cheer them up (catch: they have to be written in Russian, but guess google translate will suffice).

You can find the list here.

[EuchreJack]

If anyone is interested, I found a decent (not perfect) translation of the manifesto of this NRA

Spoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)

STATEMENT OF THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN ARMY (NRA) OF 08/21/2022

We, Russian activists, military and politicians, now partisans and fighters of the National Republican Army, outlaw warmongers, robbers and oppressors of the peoples of Russia!

We declare President Putin a usurper of power and a war criminal who amended the Constitution, unleashed a fratricidal war between the Slavic peoples and sent Russian soldiers to certain and senseless death.

Poverty and coffins for some, palaces for others – the essence of his policy.

We believe that disenfranchised people have the right to rebel against tyrants.

Putin will be deposed and destroyed by us!

Our goal is to stop the destruction of Russia and its neighbors, to stop the activities of a handful of Kremlin businessmen who have sucked on the wealth of our people and are committing crimes today inside and outside the country.

We declare officials of the Government of the Russian Federation and regional administrations to be accomplices of the usurper – those who do not resign their powers will be destroyed by us.

We announce businessmen who earn their money on corruption and connections with officials – traitors to the Motherland and accomplices of the usurper. The property of those who do not repent and do not speak publicly against this government and its war, and they themselves will be destroyed by us.

We declare employees of power structures as accomplices of the usurper. Those who do not lay down their arms and take off their shoulder straps will be destroyed by us.

We declare military cargoes and the cargoes of those who earn money in the war and help it financially – legal targets that we will destroy.

We remember the bombings of houses in Russia that brought Putin to power. We know that the regime will not stop at any of the most heinous crimes. And we declare: we carry out actions only against persons of this power. We will not attack civilian objects and civilians, and if Putin’s security forces will make such provocations and attribute the victims to us, do not believe them!

We call on the soldiers of the Russian army to stop shooting at our brothers from other countries – Georgia, Syria and others.

We call on all Russians to join our ranks and raise the white-blue-white flag of the new Russia instead of the tricolor disgraced by Putin’s government.

We call on those who are ready to fight to follow our example and overthrow this inhuman, hypocritical and anti-people regime!

We consider it unacceptable that Russians have begun to be defamed all over the world because of war crimes committed by those who have neither nationality nor fatherland, and who love only money and power.

The world is not an enemy of Russia, and Russia is not an enemy of humanity, and we will prove this by deeds.

We will give protection to all who follow our call.

All those who carry out our program up to the change of regime are exempt from liability under the laws of the usurper.

After our victory, we will immediately release all those illegally convicted by the Putin authorities.

We will give freedom to all the peoples inhabiting Russia and build a new society – a society without oligarchs, without corruption, without arbitrary officials, without humiliating poverty.

A society in which everyone is rewarded according to their work. Society without wars and violence.

A society in which power will belong to the people, where citizens will choose their own leaders and organize the life of their cities and villages themselves.

A society in which the rulers will not be able to sacrifice human lives for their own greatness, but will think about education, medicine and scientific progress.

A society in which everyone will be proud that he was born on the territory of Russia and will want to live in it!

Long live Free Russia!

Wherever you are – fight like us, fight with us, fight better than us!

Let’s cleanse our Motherland from filth! Victory will be ours!
 

Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.

Maybe the translation makes it better, but it tracks with some of the positions declared by the former MP who revealed them and Russians that have left Russia because they disagree with Russia.
I understand it may sound silly to Ukraine, but I would give it much more than a 10% chance.

[Lidku]

So President Lukashenko just congratulated Ukraine's Independence today..

[Strongpoint]

Let's also not forget about the "Freedom of Russia Legion" volunteer unit which is very real, fights on the frontline, and won't go anywhere no matter how the war will end. Those few hundreds are exactly what can be a basis for a future revolutionary army.

So President Lukashenko just congratulated Ukraine's Independence today..

And wished peaceful skies... literally when dozens of Russian missiles congratulate us from Belarusian territory. I heard 9 air raid sirens today

[EuchreJack]

Let's also not forget about the "Freedom of Russia Legion" volunteer unit which is very real, fights on the frontline, and won't go anywhere no matter how the war will end. Those few hundreds are exactly what can be a basis for a future revolutionary army.

That is cool. I think that I heard about them, but not by name.

[scriver]

To paraphrase Abigail Thorn here - When  antifascists come for the fascists, the fascists have a choice, to give up their beliefs. They can go the rest of their lives and stop being one. They suddenly won't be best buddies with antifascists but they'll leave them alone. But if you find yourself in the target of the fascists, because of your identity, things you can't change, there's nothing you can do to please or compromise with fascists, except stop existing. If you're a political enemy of antifascism you can become a friend. If you're a political enemy of fascism, either they lose or you die.

This isn't how violence works out.

[MaxTheFox]

To paraphrase Abigail Thorn here - When  antifascists come for the fascists, the fascists have a choice, to give up their beliefs. They can go the rest of their lives and stop being one. They suddenly won't be best buddies with antifascists but they'll leave them alone. But if you find yourself in the target of the fascists, because of your identity, things you can't change, there's nothing you can do to please or compromise with fascists, except stop existing. If you're a political enemy of antifascism you can become a friend. If you're a political enemy of fascism, either they lose or you die.

This isn't how violence works out.

There is no other way. They cannot be saved. This unfortunate ideology, which we have put up with far too long, has proven to be too much of a danger to society to not crack down on.

Glory to the NRA. Hundreds more must die like Dugina did. Treat them like the partisans treated the Nazi occupants. I don't even care as much for the American fascists anymore. Putinist blood must flow.

[Strongpoint]

The word fascist is so watered down... It is used to label a huge variety of people, including anyone bigoted (even of non-violent moderate variety), or any conservative, or even anyone not from your political camp. And I wouldn't like to live in a country ruled by "antifascists" which is a violent and totalitarian ideology of a slightly different variety.

But when dealing with actual fascists, especially ones in power, there are no no-violent options. In this situation, pacifists with their "we shouldn't be like them and violence is bad" only help the evil to triumph.


Also, we are beating a dead horse... 

In context of this thread, I welcome any violence within Russia, I don't care who will cause trouble: Anarchists, Stalinists, Islamists, Liberals, baby-eating Satanists. Any trouble in Russia will save Ukrainian lives.

[MorleyDev]

Yeah the issue is with authoritarianism that also mandates the death or displacement of people (which...in practice is most of them as it turns out). Fascism, as in the philosophy of authoritarianism that devalues human life so much, can't really be reasoned with or debated. Reason and debate in a democracy relies on the assumption that there's a broad agreement in a majority of norms and goals, and simply disagreement on approach.

It simply has to be denied, via first exposing and preventing those who follow it from being able to hold positions of power or respect via both electorate (don't f*cking vote for them, deny them the room to speak) and legally mandated means (making membership in the neo-nazi organizations illegal and cracking down on them, and recognizing that freedom of speech doesn't grant freedom to use speech to infringe the rights of others and so making hate speech illegal).

If that fails then you really are left with violent rebellion, complicity, death (or a combination thereof) as your only options.

[Random_Dragon]

So, I think I've given my rough conjecture on all the different possible outcomes of the war but if I recall it was in the old WWIII thread, and also might not have been as extensive as the latest one I wrote up for elsewhere.

Spoiler: the list broken into two relevant parts (click to show/hide)

1. Ukraine either wins or gets good enough of a resolution from the conflict that it doesn't look like Putin's actions were worth the cost, and no one gets nuked in a temper tantrum. Good end with or without a regime change, whatever dangers the future holds the world will have learned that non-nuclear countries can actually stand up to nuclear countries, with a small hope of derailing the failure mode of MAD we're currently stuck in.

2. Ukraine wins by default because Putin commits suicide via multiple gunshots to the back of the head. Some risk that the next guy will also have small penis issue, but the world will probably give the sanctions some credit for this so we finally have a bare-minimum proof of concept for a non-military solution to League of Nations problems. Whether it will work better or worse next time remains to be seen.

3. Russia gets some minor concessions out of Ukraine and the war cripples Russia's ambitions for the foreseeable future. This are ALREADY into Bad End territory, Russia has already proven to the world that sanctions aren't good enough, but at least they might not give us WWIII within Putin's lifetime.

4. Russia annexes Ukraine but gets bogged down in a Vietnam-style quagmire for the foreseeable future. Whether Ukraine regains its independence in the future, gets gradually vore'd by Russia, or WWIII interrupts us, this is still basically just outcome three except an even worse time for all.

5. Russia annexes Ukraine, nukes Ukraine in a losing temper tantrum, targets Poland or Estonia next, basically any of the usual short-term bad ends, and this finally convinces NATO to stop throwing supplies and start throwing hands. This is the outcome where we risk WWIII in the short-term but the only outcome that has any significant chance of Russia facing justice for its crimes.

6. Russia annexes Ukraine or otherwise does something stupid, another country is visibly next on the shitlist...and NATO does nothing meaningful. Now the bad ends are starting to get spicy. This is outcome five except WWIII is delayed until Russia eventually, FINALLY finds a new form of atrocity or line that NATO won't just sit back and ignore. In this future WWIII becomes nearly inevitable.

But there's still the big one...

7. Shit just keeps happening and no one ever actually starts WWIII over it. Congrats, you avoided global nuclear war. You will now WISH you hadn't.

Sanctions are dead and buried as a viable non-military way to stop war, and the pre-existing precedent that a non-nuclear country has ZERO options in the face of a belligerent nuclear country has been set in stone as something perfectly normal for any superpower to do, without fear of any REAL consequences. The UN and EU have officially become as useless as the League of Nations was, but now this story is repeating itself in the nuclear era.

Nonproliferation is now career suicide. Who would be foolish enough to be a non-nuclear country? Ukraine gave up their inherited Soviet arsenal in exchange for Russia's promise to uphold their sovereignty, and look what happened to them! In this future, Ukraine is now nothing more than a byword for how futile it is to stop a nuclear superpower from doing as it pleases to any country that doesn't have nukes of their own.

China now has a working example of a country getting away with what they also want to do without meanginful consequences. They may still have much more to lose, but if they aren't already emboldened they sure as fuck will be. Iran and North Korea's nuclear ambitions will look purely justified from a realpolitik standpoint, and the US in this era would have zero ability to argue in good faith against said ambitions. We already had Iraq as a distant example to spark the first glimmers of this dark precedent, and in this future Ukraine would make that precedent a universal argument against any effort to stymie the nuclear ambitions of other countries.

Eventually, the world will understand the full weight of this realization and its universality, and will normalize it. Any sane leader living in that future will be scrambling either to gain parity with their potential threats before they become another example, or else live in fear that they'll be the next country to get Ukraine'd. A new era or militarism and imperialism dawns. WWIII is still probably inevitable eventually, but if we put it off long enough, to phrase it another way...

"During those days people will seek death but will not find it; they will long to die, but death will elude them."

As usual I put probably too much effort into underlining all the ways in which the absolute worst-case scenario can be infinitely more of a slow decaying death of global civilization as we know it, and not something as blase as global nuclear war.

[Strongpoint]

The only way for Russia to get something resembling victory is to somehow stop Western financial and military aid provided to Ukraine. Even then, with stuff Ukraine already has, it will be a long and grueling campaign. I can't imagine what kind of resources Russia needs to spend to capture a single major city like Kharkiv or Mykolaiv even if Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and be forced to defend with infantry alone.

Note that even if they will somehow stop or severely limit British\American\German\etc aid to Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states will continue to provide support. It is simple self-preservation. Czechia and Slovakia will likely continue to assist, too.

So forget about any options with full annexation. Perhaps one more major city after a ridiculous amount of resources spent to achieve this goal. Russia can't move further without using WMD (the frontline is static for more than a month).

[Lord Shonus]

Stopping American aid just plain isn't happening. Backing Ukraine is obscenely popular, so there's no real risk of a leadership change (which is also growing increasingly less likely in the short term) cutting off the supply. And as long as the US is willing to supply the guns, they will get there.

If all of Europe save Poland or Slovakia drops out, the US will fly weapons into Poland or Slovakia for distribution. If everybody except the US drops out, the US will fly straight into Ukraine and DARE Russia to interfere. Not only is the US perfectly willing to spend treasure like water in a fight that is increasingly being seen as "The 2022 version of 1938 Czechloslovakia", more and more it is becoming a thing of national honor.

This is a supply line that can not be cut.