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[Strongpoint]

Israel has approved Estonia's request to give Ukraine one anti-ship Blue Spear missile system.



My sincere gratitude to Lavrov for his Hitler was a Jew interview.

[MaxTheFox]

Degrees of separatism, and degrees of suppression.

It isn't illegal to be a member of the Scottish National Party (arguably separatist), nor... any more... Sinn Fein[1][2] in Northern Ireland. Plaid Cymru is a valid Welsh party (I think there's others, like Plaid Glyndŵr), and Mebyon Kernow does that job for the P-Celtic peninsula that is just to the south. They are all 'separatist',

Whereas look at the pro-democracy/remain-unsubsumed movements in Hong Kong. Pretty much legislated out of existence, even the slightest "actually, I like it how it was" that really isn't anything comparable to actual regionalised nationalism.


Though I really wasn't considering the threat of separatism/nationalism, it was just that the Kazakh government is still very much of a variety of government where "stability" is only through some degree of oppression.

Now, to you, Max, you might calculate that it's a valid move to make if Russia goes to a level of intollerability. That even if it drives the Kazakh situation in the same direction that you'll get a grace period as you make a transition to whatever the follow-up destination is that you have in mind. But from what I heard of government crackdowns at the beginning of this year, any notable 'stability' compared to Russia is a "damning with faint praise" situation. You probably have your ears closer to the ground than us, of course, assuming you're not being kept in the dark by censorship, so it's just a 'typical western' viewpoint of mine that might be wrong.



((BTW, one of the rounds in a particularly entertaining celebrity quiz show thingummy is "Where Is Kazakhstan?". Because Kazakhstan is a good placeholder concept for "I know it exists, but couldn't find it on a map", which is the general premise of the round. i.e. finding things on a map, though I don't think it has ever been Kazakhstan... or the Central African Republic.   For the ninth-largest country in the world (and with many other interesting distinctions), that says more about those who couldn't answer such a question than about Kazakhstan itself!))


Anyhoo. I hope you never need to go with your plans, but also that they go as well as possible if you do actually have to commit to them. It also makes me realise how relatively comfortable my own situation is...


[1] In fact, they're the ones that are being least childish, at the moment, compared with the non-separatist (by current standards!) DUP.
[2] However, being a member of any recognisable flavour of /New/Provisional/Whatever IRA is not. Links to SF aren't quite as joined-at-the-hip as they were, which was how the political arm stopped being proscribed.

We actually know quite a lot about Chinese separatism, and China puts way more effort into suppressing such things than Russia.

[brewer bob]

Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed.

Can't argue with that.

Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)

The possibility is something that Russia is supposed to be prepared for. Supposed to be. This doesn't look like the orderly "50 metres apart, affixed with snorkels", at first glance. Perhaps someone decided to wing it (after or during the bridging unit being targetted), perhaps the attack precipitated matters and the crews prefered a bit of 'soft water' protection over standing in the 'open' under bombardment.

I suspect (totally without professional experience in these matters) that a failure to properly train and reherse might have been part of the issue. Still, if the crews have the emergency breathing gear (if not the chance to have a go in the escape-simulators) there might not have been so much risk of actual drowning, in the undoubted mayhem, leaving it up to opposition artillery/dronestrikes/whatever to cause any subsequent casualties.

A retired Australian general had some insights on Twitter about the failed bridging attempt:

Spoiler: the Twitter thread (click to show/hide)

I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine.

This Russian river crossing has gained attention because it resulted in the loss of (probably) a battalion tactical group and some critical engineer equipment. The reality is, it is worse than that.



Before examining why, let’s explore these types of operations. Assault river crossings are one of the most difficult combined arms operations possible. Not only do all the elements of the ground team need to come together in a tightly orchestrated series of events.

The combined arms team also needs to deceive the enemy about crossing site and timings. And, the combined arms team is quite vulnerable while it waits to cross once the crossing site is established - regardless of how much dispersal and camouflage is conducted.

I had a Brigade commander once who had us focus on these operations because if we could successfully undertake assault river crossings as a Brigade, we could do any other combined arms mission. He was right.

These operations are generally conducted in 6 phases. First is recon and planning. Why is it needed, where will it be done, what is the follow-on mission on the other side of the river, and what info is needed to bring it all together?

Of course, the defender on the other side of the river has also probably done an ‘engineer appreciation’ to find likely crossing sites. These will be high priority areas to cover in their recon and surveillance plan. Here is a good example of this.

Second is ‘suppression’. This means to suppress the enemy in the vicinity of the crossing site. This includes denying them close recon, surveillance or direct / indirect fire onto the crossing site (both sides), exit routes on the far bank, and assembly areas on the home bank.

Next is ‘obscure’. You don’t want the enemy to see what you are doing. This can including doing things at night, smoke, electronic jamming, feints at other sites, etc. And of course, you want to destroy as much of the enemy in the vicinity of the crossing site before crossing.

Fourth, is ‘secure’. In this phase, friendly forces secure routes to the crossing site, assembly areas, as well as home and far banks of the crossing. Forces are also pushed across the ‘gap’ to secure the far back and ensure the enemy can’t interfere with bridging operations.

Fifth, and the part combat engineers love - ‘reduce’. Reducing obstacles means the obstacle (in this case a river) is crossed and negated as an obstacle to friendly maneuver. Normally, a brigade would have at least two crossing sites with a 3rd in reserve.

The final phase is ‘assault’. The ground maneuver force (supported by army aviation and Air Force assets), artillery, electronic warfare, etc crosses the bridges and shakes itself out on the far side of the crossing in preparation to continue the advance.

I would add that Military Police are really important in this endeavour. There is a lot of directing traffic. This is particularly important to ensure the units prioritized by higher commanders cross first. This can get emotional at times - everyone wants to be first across.


Of course, once the crossing site is established, it needs to be protected - on the ground, from air attack and from other sources of threat. In Australia, during training exercises, we often had to protect against crocodile attacks.


The crossing site (regardless of how many bridges or ferries there are) is normally controlled by a regulating headquarters to ensure it is used in accordance with the wider scheme of maneuver leading up to the crossing, and the operations planned after it.

And it would be remiss of me not to mention logisticians. Each site needs them to refuel vehicles, recover bogged vehicles, repair bridge equipment and boats, etc. (HT @TrentTelenko
)

An important aspect of assault river crossings is that they are only undertaken if absolutely necessary. The resources needed - engineers, bridges, artillery - are closely husbanded by commanders. As I already mentioned, they are really hard, especially when being shot at.


Therefore, such operations normally only occur on an axis of advance that is a main effort (or about to become the main effort). This has been missed by many commentators - the Russians clearly intended to invest in this axis and throw a lot of combat power down it.

Consequently, this is probably a larger set back for the Russians than some have speculated. Yes, they lost a lot of vehicles - but they are used to that now. It has likely resulted in not just a BTG but probably an entire Brigade losing a large part of its combat power.


Importantly, the Russians lost scarce engineer bridging equipment (and probably combat engineers too). These resources are neither cheap nor available in large quantities. And these are in high demand during an offensive.


But perhaps most importantly, defeating this assault river crossing has probably denied the Russians an axis of advance they clearly thought was going to be productive for them in their eastern offensive. This is a significant set back for them.

This was just a quick look at assault river crossings, how they are done, and what this week’s disaster on the Severskyi Donets river means for the Russian Army in eastern Ukraine. I hope it was useful. End


Thanks to @RALee85
 @HN_Schlottman
 and @Blue_Sauron
 and 2nd Combat Engineer Regiment, whose images I used in this thread. And thank you to @doctrinatrix_C2
 for constantly reminding us that doctrine matters, especially in conducting complex combined arms maneuver.

[MaxTheFox]

Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed.

Can't argue with that.

Those who condemn NATO aid to Ukraine as "American imperialism" while ignoring the fact that it's to keep Ukraine's independence in the face of Russian Imperialism are Putinist agents. Regardless of claimed political alignment, they are playing into the Russian government's plans: for the West to go into isolation. Thus they are Putinists. They are traitors to the democratic world.

[Strongpoint]

Meanwhile, Russia cuts off electricity to Finland and will likely do the same with natural gas

What can I say? Njet Molotoff Lavroff, Njet Molofoff Lavroff, it won't stop Finland from joining NATO

[heydude6]

In case anyone isn't understanding the Chomsky hate here, I thought I'd link a relevant video from that Kraut guy I mentioned in the old thread that explains the subject.

Essentially speaking, Chomsky has a strong hate-boner for America to the point that he irrationally hates everything America does, including the time when America intervened to stop the Bosnian genocide. Since it isn't appropriate to say "Stopping genocide is bad", Chomsky has had to do a lot of mental gymnastics to keep his dysfunctional worldview alive. It's lead him to twist facts and blatantly lie to push the narrative that the Bosnian genocide wasn't a genocide. The guy is as delusional as a Tankie, which is why he isn't seen as a respectable intellectual.

It would be totally in character for Chomsky to support Putin in this conflict.

[brewer bob]

Chomsky is blind to the imperialism of Russia and other states than the US, but unfortunately he's not the only one in the so-called intellectual Left with that kind of views.

[tonnot98]

Gnome Chomsky from Left 4 Dead 2 is probably more popular than the other weirdo

[Strongpoint]

Witnessing an epic meltdown of Russians in youtube comments after Ukraine's victory in the Eurovision Song Contest.

[Lord Shonus]

Chomsky is blind to the imperialism of Russia and other states than the US, but unfortunately he's not the only one in the so-called intellectual Left with that kind of views.

The man's never met a genocide he won't deny, but you're fundamentally right.

There's a huge portion of the left, particularly the Internet Left, and most particularly the American Internet Left, who's policies begin and end with "AMERICA BAD!". Often to the point of wrapping around to "PUTIN GOOD!" or "ASSAT GOOD!" or "KIM JONG-UN GOOD" purely because they oppose America and America is evil and the only country with agency. Many prominent leftist podcasts, Twitter "pundits", and authors fall into this category.

By some strange coincidence, most of them have gotten a lot less fundraising and lower engagement with their work in the last three or four months for some reason or other, just as has happened with the global far right.

[Quarque]

Yeah, in Europe I see mostly far-right Putin lovers.

Chomsky should know better, watching him makes me sad. I can't hate him. Trump deserves that to a much greater degree. Lord knows what kind of top-secret intel he has handed Putin over the last years.

[MaxTheFox]

If you call yourself a leftist and yet you want to let a right-wing dictatorship have its way, you are not actually a leftist because you support actively sabotaging your cause. America is hardly perfect, but it still passes the very low bar of being better than Russia and China.

[Lord Shonus]

The trick is to assume that every bad thing other countries do is CIA propaganda. Or else something that mean old America forced them to do, because this strain of American Leftism still treats the USA as the center of the world and the only country that matters the way the hardcore right does, they just think it is pure evil instead of pure good.

[Strongpoint]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8Z51no1TD0

This music video... It is pure art showing what this war looks like. Somehow they expressed my own emotions so well.

[Quarque]

Normally I don't care much about the Song Festival or about rap, but this is beautiful.

The song expresses not only pain and tragedy, but also an indomitable vitality, a refreshing belief that freedom is worth fighting for. Too many people in the West have grown cynical about their own democratic rights. A kind of cynism that the Kremlin has been feeding, in collaboration with rightwing nutjobs and useful idiots. They want to make us to believe that democracy and the free press are no better than despotism and state propaganda.

It sounds corny as hell, but Ukraine really is a beacon of light in dark times.