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[King Zultan]

I still don't see why everyone is getting all bent out of shape about that Red Diamond dumb ass, just ignore his ass it's not like he posts that often. And the whole Western Satanist thing if funny to me.


Also we don't need another mod, we've gotten by this far with just the two.

[jipehog]

Same. Btw this the reason why many talkshow formats intentionally put someone controversial on screen, as controversy energize people creating engagement and publicity.

[EuchreJack]

The other alternative is he just locks the thread.

I can do that, if necessary. That would risk contamination of the other thread, though.

[Lidku]

So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?

[Duuvian]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2023

Spoiler: text from link (click to show/hide)

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces secured marginal advances amidst continued offensive operations around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself; within 23km north of Bakhmut near Vyimka, Fedorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Rozdolivka, Paraskoviivka, and Berkhivka; and within 12km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar.[46] Geolocated footage published on February 18 indicates that Russian forces likely secured marginal advances northwest of Bilohorivka (21km northeast of Bakhmut) and near Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut).[47] Geolocated footage published on February 17 shows Russian forces closer to Zaliznianske (11km north of Bakhmut) and a section of the E40 highway north of Bakhmut.[48] Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on February 17 that Wagner Group fighters completely captured Paraskoviivka (7km north of Bakhmut) and posted a picture of Wagner Group fighters in the settlement that was later geolocated, indicating that Wagner Group fighters likely captured at least northern Paraskoviivka.[49] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Paraskoviivka and that Russian forces conducted assaults on Berkhivka (5km north of Bakhmut), where fighting is reportedly ongoing on the eastern outskirts of the settlement.[50] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are currently clearing Paraskoviivka and surrounding areas and that the capture of the settlement will allow Russian forces to launch further assaults on Ukrainian positions in northern Bakhmut and its suburbs.[51] Geolocated footage published on February 18 indicates that Russian forces likely secured marginal advances in the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[52] Geolocated footage published on February 17 indicates that Russian forces have advanced closer to the T0504 highway northeast of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[53] A Russian milblogger claimed on February 18 that Russian forces advanced close to the southern and southeastern outskirts of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) on February 17.[54]

Russian sources continue to falsely assert that the encirclement of Bakhmut is imminent and that Russian forces are interdicting most Ukrainian logistics in the area. Advisor to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Yan Gagin claimed on February 18 that Russian forces have cut off supplies to the Ukrainian grouping in Bakhmut and that Russian forces have started the operational encirclement of the city.[55] A Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger directly refuted Gagin’s claim and stated that discussions of operational encirclement are premature as Ukrainian forces continue to reinforce their positions in the Bakhmut area.[56] Russian sources claimed that the reported capture of Paraskoviivka allows Russian forces to threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) from the north into Bakhmut, with one Russian source claiming that the capture of the settlement indicates that the operational encirclement of Bakhmut is near.[57] A Russian milblogger reiterated longstanding Russian claims that Russan forces can interdict all Ukrainian GLOCs into Bakhmut and claimed that Russian artillery units can now also interdict the T0516 highway between Toretsk (23km southwest of Bakhmut) and Kostyantynivka, which Ukrainian forces reportedly use to transfer personnel and equipment to the grouping in Bakhmut.[58] The Ukrainian military’s continued ability to send significant amounts of personnel and equipment to Bakhmut and the surrounding areas casts doubt on these Russian claims.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 36km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.[59] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in the northern outskirts of Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka) and that Russian forces aim to encircle the settlement instead of continuing frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions in the western part of the settlement.[60] Geolocated footage published on February 18 shows elements of DNR 1st Army Corps 3rd Brigade, now the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Southern Military District, shelling Ukrainian positions near Novobakhmutivka (13km northeast of Avdiivka).[61]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on February 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Avdiivka).[62] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are attempting to conduct offensive operations from positions west of Mykilske (27km southwest of Vuhledar) and that positional battles are ongoing around Vuhledar.[63] Odesa Oblast head Serhiy Bratchuk amplified footage on February 17 showing Chechen Akhmat Special Forces reportedly deploying to positions in the direction of Vuhledar.[64]

Sources in the link.

On other concerns:
Rapido rapido rapido

[jipehog]

So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?

Unclear, the only thing certain that it is a meatgrinder. Reportedly Russia keep paying huge price for marginal gain in seemingly unimportant location, their little gains are even less than they did in their last year push, at this pace they are going to need years to crawl to the region line.

[ChairmanPoo]

They might be hoping to prolong the war until an US election places another pro-Russian republican in the WH

[Devastator]

So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?

Slow movement for heavy losses basically.  Doesn't seem to be anything to panic about.  Certainly doesn't look like any kind of encirclement.

[Strongpoint]

So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?

Spoiler: approximate map (click to show/hide)

It isn't an encirclement yet, but we have only one uncontested major road to Bakhmut left. Should Chasiv Yar fall, both supply and retreat will be complicated.

My personal opinion is that it is time to retreat and I am worried that political\propaganda value of Bakhmut may delay this decision until it is too late. But being an armchair general is easy...

[Lord Shonus]

Right now, the main value of Bakhmut to Ukraine is that the Russians want it real bad, so it is a good place to kill lots of Russian troops. The town itself (what's left of it) has little strategic value to either side at this point - when the attack originated, it would have been a pretty useful logistics route for Russia, but since then Ukrainian counter-attacks have made it useless in that role. If it should become outright untenable, they'll pull back to the next set of fortified lines (which have been a long time preparing at this point) and defend from there.

[King Zultan]

Seems like every town Russia gets near ends up a smoking ruin with in a few days.

[Strongpoint]

Heh, Biden is in Kyiv. A bold move

[Toady One]

Sorry, I was out of the country for a week and my computer unexpected died on the trip.  Still need to sleep for several hundred years, but yeah, think I'm done with RD2 at this point.  At least as far as I can parse it.

[Lidku]

western satanist /s

[MaxTheFox]

Thanks Toady!