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[scriver]

So did this partial mobilisation mean an actual declaration of war?

[Strongpoint]

So did this partial mobilisation mean an actual declaration of war?

No. Partial mobilization means "We need more cannon fodder because we are losing the war"

BTW, I don't believe in 300K, Russia lies. Always. If they would want to mobilize 300K, they would say 50K to limit negative effects... I think they'll mobilize no less than a 1M

It will be a WW2-like zerg rush, I hope China won't arm this horde with semi-modern stuff.

[Starver]

Enemy At The Gates comes to mind, if I am remembering the (start of) the right film.


Other than that, my childhood WW2 Eastern Front tabletop wargaming experience, too.

Spoiler: ...rambling (click to show/hide)

Not helped by my friend, the GM and modelmaker, being an expert in all aspects of that theatre of war. And much better than the rest of us in the necessary tactics, for whichever force he was playing. (But he was always a far better Axis player, which I suppose was rather fitting. And we'd rapidly grown wary of any game where he was laying out Russian-numbers (numerically superior) of military units for me/us, compared with a few choice (limited supply, but technically more capable) German units under his side's control. It generally meant slaughter, and that slaughter being upon us, no matter the number of Stalin's Organs or Flying Tanks. Makes me wonder where his main interests lie, these days. Too smart to be a Useful Idiot, but politically he'd be more a Putin-supporter, from afar, than not... Which would be interesting in many ways.)


If Moscow is intent upon cosplaying the 'glories' of late-WW2, or of the hypothetical conventional conflicts that might have come after, I think they've reached the stage where their recently much touted hypersonic missiles are no longer their main stick they feel like waggling at us. Like the 'Merkins, they have liked to shout about their 5th(ish)-generation weaponry, but it looks like they've been even less capable of fulfilling such promises (in useful ways) without also involving much Grunt-work too. For which they need those Grunts. Or descend into the more abominable conflicts that everyone had so far avoided even over the more touchy half of the 20thC.

To be pursuing referenda, BTW, I suspect they already know the answer they suspect (or know they can enforce). If nothing else, no matter how faithfully they count the votes, anybody who intends to say "nay" to the idea (deemed ellegible to vote and physically/electronically allowed to) will have nicely marked themselves for extra personal attention once the 90+% assertions of Russianess gets officially rubberstamped.

[brewer bob]

Google searches for “how to break an arm” reportedly surged in Russia after Vladimir Putin announced an immediate partial mobilisation of citizens to fight in Ukraine.

Seems like some folk are not so happy of the mobilisation.

[heydude6]

Performing self-harm in an attempt to avoid conscription is a proud Slavic tradition. My father lost an uncle that way once.

[anewaname]

About the change.org petition, a Newsweek article says

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The Russian-language petition against conscription, titled 'Against partial and total mobilization,' was created on the Change.org petition site by a user with the pseudonym 'Soft Power.'

It says: "On September 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin announced the start of partial mobilization throughout Russia. Only those citizens who are in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the ranks of the armed forces, have certain military specialties, will be subject to conscription for military service.

Wikipedia says Russia has a mandatory 12-month conscription. Doesn't the September 21st speech mean only those who avoided the mandatory 12-month conscription can avoid the "partial mobilization" conscription?

[Strongpoint]

Doesn't the September 21st speech mean only those who avoided the mandatory 12-month conscription can avoid the "partial mobilization" conscription?

Yep! Also, Imagine, you are a Russian professional soldier... You are at war for 7 months with no rotations BUT you know that you have few months left of your contract and you are free... And now they say that your contract is automatically extended until the end of the mobilization!

Or, you are Russian conscript, conscripted almost a year ago. You are among the lucky ones who wasn't sent to Ukraine yet. You had many tense months... it looks like you are among the Lucky ones and will avoid the war... Oh... you are mobilized now and are not going home

The morale of all those guys must be going through the roof.

[Strongpoint]

Meanwhile, there is great anger at Putin among Russian "patriots". Reason? British citizens, POWs, were released instead of being publicly executed.

[Telgin]

BTW, I don't believe in 300K, Russia lies. Always. If they would want to mobilize 300K, they would say 50K to limit negative effects... I think they'll mobilize no less than a 1M

It will be a WW2-like zerg rush, I hope China won't arm this horde with semi-modern stuff.

I won't pretend to really know the intricacies of Russia's logistics and economy at this point, but aren't they struggling to equip and supply the soldiers they have now?  What would they even do with another 300,000 soldiers, much less a million?

For the same reason it seems like the possibility that China would arm them is really remote since I doubt China is going to be giving stuff away for free and if they can't afford to supply their existing soldiers that implies they can't afford to buy Chinese equipment.

[Starver]

...and the risk (slight, but, nonzero) of them doing a Barbarossa and opening a second front in the direction of their erstwhile ally in the initial rush.

(Oh, indeed, very very slight, what with the initial blitzkrieg being more-than-stalled, and their own 'friend to the East' being (if anything) more dangerous to try to attack than when the (Reichs)Eagle turned upon the Bear... But I imagine Xi is not relaxing his guard, despite any 'miltary coordination' exercises, and I doubt would even tolerate any move towards an initial Polish-split. (Kazachstan? Let's see what else happens there, first. (North) Korea? No way that'd happen, firstly because of North Korea's militarisation alliances, secondly because of South Korea's militarisation aliances! Mongolia? Well, given the 1920s-1960s, especially, I'm really not sure what initial compromise could even be agreed, and certainly not a "no, you have it..." without either leader making a political/tactical sacrifice...) ...so, yeah, I'm not trying to make a percectly good point there, just demonstrating the additional minor hurdle to add to any such degree of Sino-Russian alliance.)

[Strongpoint]

BTW, they are, indeed, mobilizing poor souls that went protesting against the mobilization.

I don't know what they expect from people who a) are against the war 2) can't even throw a rock at riot police...  but they are going to make them into soldiers

______________________

And good news 215 Ukrainian POWs were exchanged for ~60 Russian POWs + Putin's pal, leader of the pro-Russian party in Ukraine, Medvedchuk who was arrested early in the war.  Those POWs include commanders of the Azov regiment.

[bloop_bleep]

The Russians on this forum eligible for conscription need to leave NOW. European countries are shutting down visas -- which I'm not sure I agree with -- getting asylum will likely be difficult without these visas or being already a fugitive, they're going to make checkpoints to stop people from leaving the country. Thankfully the border is large. I've heard Georgia or Mongolia are possible destinations. If you get conscripted, break something like your ankle. Make it physically impossible for them to send you to fight.

[KittyTac]

I lied at the recruitment center about having even worse vision than I do (by saying I didn't see a letter that I saw clear as day) and got "Category D". I won't get conscripted even if there is a full mobilization. Proud of what I did.

If needed (e.g there is a civil war), I can flee through the Kazakh border and figure out what to do next from there.

[MaxTheFox]

I am female, I don't really have to worry.

[Superdorf]

I lied at the recruitment center about having even worse vision than I do (by saying I didn't see a letter that I saw clear as day) and got "Category D". I won't get conscripted even if there is a full mobilization. Proud of what I did.

Nicely done.