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[King Zultan]

I've seen very few threads on this forum that don't get derailed every now and then, it's part of the natural motion of things to get off track at times.

[Duuvian]

I've been reading a bit on the grain surplus in Eastern Europe, for example that there are support programs being built for local agriculture. In addition to this, I was wondering if building a grain stockpile somewhere in Europe to supply Sudan and in particular Darfur with would be a good idea for relieving some of that pressure. Within my memory Darfur was in the not very distant past a notorious example of famine, and I've read in Al-Jazeera's reporting that there are other armed organizations that may expand the conflict especially in Darfur. Overall my knowledge is very meagre on the subject, but here is a note I wrote to myself yesterday in order to remind myself to ask whether it would be a good idea or not; I've copied and pasted it because it was very easy if superfluous.

Sudan- Accumulate grain in Eastern Europe out of circulation to contribute to prevention (if this is allowed by law and custom) of growing support in rural Poland for a far right party who are from what little I've read on it (in passing in articles and I haven't read about it otherwise so my apologies if I am incorrect) sympathetic to Putin and who are pressuring Duda in upcoming elections, if that is a concern (I am not very knowledgable and going off news articles); and hold it in reserve for what may happen in Darfur in particular. This may help solve a potential problem now and one that seems it may be probable at a later time, as well as would be an act of benevolence that could be more than it's own reward in the diplomatic sense. This may also be important as there is another grain producing country making inroads in the continent...

EDIT: Grammar and some changes to the posted note

[Il Palazzo]

The only Putin-adjacent party around here has marginal support.

[Duuvian]

Ah, that is reassuring. That was my reason to poke my nose in, in regards to Poland. My apologies for the written intrusion.

[Il Palazzo]

The articles you've read might not have been wrong, per se. Just alarmist.
In that the farmers are indeed pissed off by the current grain situation and the opposition parties are trying to cash in - including the vaguely Putin-friendly one. Vaguely, because in the current climate any overt mention of dealing with Russia is a political suicide. And it might even gain more support riding on that internal crisis de jour. We're talking numbers around 10% support here as of today, up from ~7% in the previous elections. In our political system the 7% means they currently have something like 10 seats in the parliament, and may get to about 30 with 10%. Out of 460. This is marginal, and will remain so even if the popularity gains prove to be more than a blip.
And, again, the political climate is such, that there is absolutely no way the support for Ukraine goes away. Any party that'd try to pressure their coalition members in that direction would be regarded as utterly toxic.

Of all the EU states with similar pro-Russian parties (and which country doesn't have one), the Polish incarnation has probably been rendered the most toothless by the invasion.

[Starver]

As it is actual news-reporting, month-long-necro of this thread seems apt to highlight a report on the visible Russian defences. I can't but help think where my attack(s) would go, and which 'obvious' funnels I should do no more than pretend to fall into, but that's all way beyond my paygrade, and I won't spout it here.



(Also, BBC site seems to have removed its "top ten articles" footer. I can do without it, but annoying when I want to see a spread of what is 'popular' rather than dig into particular subjects that I watch. Ah well...) ((edit: It's back again. Or I just happened to read a dozen articles in a row that were all no-Top-Ten types, as some of them tend to be.))

[jipehog]

Everything is actual news plus our opinions about it.

Couple of weeks ago a detailed map exposing Crimea's Russian Military Facilities was released as well
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/crimea-military-bases-map/32397787.html

[KittyTac]

Russian regional governor says Ukrainian 'sabotage group' crossed border

lol. lmao

[brewer bob]

One more general down:

Russian media reports senior Russian general killed in Zaporizhzhia

Russian media reported on Monday that a Ukrainian missile strike on the southern Zaporizhzhia front killed an experienced Russian general.

“As a result of an enemy missile attack, the Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, Maj Gen Sergei Goryachev, was killed,” the prominent pro-war blogger Voenkor said in a Telegram post.

Goryachev, a decorated commander, previously led Russian troops in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria.

Voenkor added that “according to representatives of the command of the United Group of Forces (S), the army has lost today one of the brightest and most effective military leaders”.

Several Russian war bloggers said Goryachev was likely killed by a UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile.

The Russian defence ministry is yet to comment on the reported death of Goryachev.

More than a dozen Russian generals are believed to have been killed since Moscow invaded Ukraine.

[King Zultan]

It's been quite a while since that happened, made me think that they had run out of generals.

[EuchreJack]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=1de78c975fb6
Thunder Run!

[Strongpoint]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=1de78c975fb6
Thunder Run!

Note that we are seeing veteran brigades doing most of the work, fresh new NATO-trained brigades don't show that much success. And I expected this because a few months of good training don't substitute real combat experience even if you are armed with Leopards and Bradleys instead of Soviet tanks and MRAPs.

But then Russia will need to put its new reserve units in combat and those are armed with modernized T-62s and T-55s which are crewed by mobiks. Our reserves are much better

[jipehog]

Concerning the Dam destruction. With the reveal of seismic and sat data it now appears that Russia blowing up the damn is the most likely scenario. Meanwhile the UN says that Russia continue to block flood aid, as well as other report about Russia not providing relief to the local Ukrainian population on its side and even inhibiting rescue operation on the Ukrainian side by shelling relief workers.

It seem the dam destruction, despite washing away some Russian forces, have been in their favor yesterday it was reported that they move heavy equipment from the Kakhovka area to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline where there are fierce fighting.

[Flying Dice]

Prigozhin is calling for a mutiny ("...stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country..."), claiming that Russian artillery deliberately shelled a Wagner camp, and directly calling out the Kremlin for lying about the Russian casus belli, asserting that "there was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24. The ministry of defense is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO bloc."

[Culise]

Prigozhin is calling for a mutiny ("...stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country..."), claiming that Russian artillery deliberately shelled a Wagner camp, and directly calling out the Kremlin for lying about the Russian casus belli, asserting that "there was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24. The ministry of defense is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO bloc."

Mind, "calling for a mutiny" in this case means that Wagner and MoD Russian troops are shooting at each other on the front lines, a column of Wagner soldiers has abandoned their frontline positions and are currently moving north through Rostov, there are reports that MoD helicopter pilots are receiving orders to open fire on said column (and some are rejecting those orders, while others are obeying and being shot down by Wagner), Rosgvardiya has been mobilized and Moscow is currently on high alert.  He's still calling, but it's already begun: he's just trying to convince the mobiks to switch sides.

It's still very much an "if only the tsar knew" mode of rhetoric, though: Prigozhin is still calling for the head of Shoigu, while referring to Putin as at the worst badly advised by his surrounding advisors.  Still, it is going to be a lethal blow to the Russian war effort.