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[Strongpoint]

Agreed. Wars can grind on for a very long time.
For Russia in particular it took three years and ~1.4 million dead in WW1 for the revolution to start. To add onto that things are looking relatively stable in Russia currently, so if a revolution does happen its going to be many years away.

This is why Black Swans are... black swans. We can't really say when Russia will collapse. It may happen tomorrow or in fifty years. What I am confident about is that Russia has no single chance to not collapse, a society this immoral can't exist in the long run. The question is how much damage this empire will cause before its demise.

Without black swans, this war will last for many, many years. At best, there will be a pause.

[jipehog]

Finland officially becomes a NATO member!

[Loud Whispers]

Another great victory for Russian foreign policy, to expand the NATO containment zone all along the Russian border. Truly 300 IQ move

[brewer bob]

Another great victory for Russian foreign policy, to expand the NATO containment zone all along the Russian border. Truly 300 IQ move

Yeah, joining NATO would've never, ever happened without the invasion and war. People were very much against joining before it, but opinions shifted basically in one night.

[jipehog]

Turkey still prevents Sweden ascension. I am not sure if Erdogan uses it just for his reelection campaign or hopes to get his pound of flesh from US, but thing will get clearer next month after the election.

Meanwhile from the global south: Brazil set its envoy to meet Putin and push for Ukraine peace talks. Like I said before many developing countries are strugling with economic vows and interested in seeing the conflict end as soon as possible.

That why i think Zelenskyy recent public invitation for China is important. It portrays Ukraine as willing to talk (talk =/= concede). It also put China in a bind on one hand its pro-Russia, on the other it want to portray itself as natural power on the global stage, which is hard when you make a state visit in Russia but have yet to make a phone call with Ukraine.. and every bit  helps to highlight Chinas and others ulterior motivation here.

[Loud Whispers]

One of Putin's security officers just defected, citing Putin had gone insane and actually believes the things his intelligence officers tell him, actually believes the things his own news stations report

[martinuzz]

I don't find it very reassuring to see confirmed that the world is indeed at the whim of a madman with his finger on the big red button.

[EuchreJack]

I don't find it very reassuring to see confirmed that the world is indeed at the whim of a madman with his finger on the big red button.

Eh, he's too delusional to know he's losing. He won't know until revolutionaries drag him out of whatever hole he's in, by which time nobody would listen to him. We're actually safer than if he were more sane.

[Great Order]

I don't find it very reassuring to see confirmed that the world is indeed at the whim of a madman with his finger on the big red button.

I suspect given this that if he tries to press the button, the guys with actual things to lose might choose to have him carted off at that point and ignore the order.

There's been a few instances of almost-nuclear-war, but people have consistently refused to let the trigger be pulled.

[King Zultan]

I doubt Russia is the only country that has a mad man at the helm, I just turns put that Putin is really bad at hiding his madness.

[Duuvian]

I'm hearing excuses on the pilot training. I suggest expanding it immediately to the maximum size Ukraine can allow, and also expanding it to include ground attack pilots to learn on the A-10. Though the A-10 is going to be leaving service anyways, it recently underwent an extensive maintenence to extend service by replacing it's wings. That seems like a boondoggle due to the retirement and replacement of the frame, but I digress; perhaps it was just timely maintenence now with Putin's War. Has the value of the airframe changed to be lower after such extensive use, expected retirement, and replacement parts, or is value measured instead in cost of production and "cemented" rather than including wear and age as a civilian car may be?

It's slow and vulnerable to interception, but paired with F-16 this may be less of a problem. It was designed for a war like this. I've also heard that the large fighter reserve of Russia would make it a bad idea, but while that may be true I doubt not preparing to send them would be better for the Ukrainians. I also have heard that parts may not be stockpiled or in current production, but the wing replacement implies that has not been an issue at certain times; I see no reason why now would not be such a time.

One question I have, knowing that Sidewinders can be mounted on the A-10: are competitive or greater ranged A2A missiles to what they would face be compatible with the frame and electronics, when fired from low elevation? I have a feeling it's radar wouldn't be long enough, but I don't know for sure.

[Madman198237]

A-10 has no radar, no HMCS or HMD, no maneuverability, and no speed. It's completely useless against air targets except helicopters and pointless to even think of it shooting at a fighter jet because it's unlikely to see them first and unlikely to shoot them at all.

A-10 is only a useful platform with total air superiority on one side because it's just so vulnerable with its low-altitude approach, lack of target acquisition equipment (which forces it to spend a lot more time on target to actually FIND the target), and low speed.

[jipehog]

@Madman198237 who do you think have the upper hand in the sky atm? and will adding a couple wings of F16 will change that in any way?

[martinuzz]

Tactically it would probably better if we waited with sending jet fighters to Ukraine until we have saved up a decent sized fleet to give to them in one go, instead of a handful here and there with time in between.

[Lord Shonus]

@Madman198237 who do you think have the upper hand in the sky atm? and will adding a couple wings of F16 will change that in any way?

The sky is neutral. Ukrainian SAM systems are doing a pretty effective job of restricting where Russian jets and choppers can operate, because Russia's proven quite incompetent at SEAD/DEAD missions. Ukraine (aided by Western HARMs and guided artillery) has done very well with SEAD/DEAD, but has no counter to long-range AAMs fired from Russian territory, and it turns out that long-rang air-to-air missiles are one part of the Russian military that actually works.


A supply of Western fighters would be a limited solution to that problem, because no Western country has a directly equivalent AAM - the Phoenix is long retired, and neither Meteor or AMRAAM have the same range. Ultra-long range AAMs are in development, but not ready for service yet. The primary advantages of Western fighters would be the ability to operate any ordnance that NATO is willing to supply (pretty handy, because both HARM and JADM would be much more flexible on a platform they're native to than when kludged onto a Mig-29 or Su-27, and other weapons would become an option), and (probably more important) they would be available in huge numbers. The Polish Migs being given now are probably the very last ones  NATO can get, which means that any Ukrainian aircaft that goes down is gone forever. This also increases pilot losses because there's a powerful incentive to try landing a damaged fighter in the hope of preserving a literally priceless war machine, or at least bringing home spare parts that can keep other birds flying. Were F-16s to be provided, a Ukrainian pilot that punched out would have a good chance of expecting a shiny new one from Uncle Sam to arrive by the time he's ready to get back in the fight.

None of this mitigates the extreme practical difficulty of actually getting the things there. Not only is operation completely different (which we know, because so many NATO allies have had to undergo the conversion from East Bloc to NATO aircraft), maintaining any combat aircraft is a nightmarish task. Training any single mechanic is probably simpler than training a pilot, but you need many times the number of mechanics as you do pilots. I would be shocked if there isn't a lot of training happening that nobody's admitting to, but it is a real obstacle.