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[Strongpoint]

I said that without western support Ukraine military demise is inventible (emphasize on military). Otherwise, you seem to underestimate how Ukraine war effort dependent on outside support, for example how long doing you think that Ukraine anti air can hope to last without expansive ammo, early warning capabilities from NATO, fuel communication, etc.

No, I don't. Of course, centralized air defense will rather quickly stop being a thing (but note that existing stocks of manpads will be still MILES better than what Syrian Rebels had, and mobile short-range systems like BUK won't be hunted down instantly and existing stocks will last for some time)

But if the army losses a branch, it doesn't mean it collapses. Army collapses when there is either death to the chain of command or mass desertion.

As I said, the nature of war will change. And it will be a losing war that will gradually transition to guerilla but emphasis is on gradually. That if Russia can stomach all that war attrition in a years-long war.

You are missing my point: Syrian rebels waged conventional warfare with controlled areas having far less than what Ukraine has in terms of weapons, ammo, industrial capacity, trained manpower, territories, and political unity.

Also, as I said, I think no support at all is plainly impossible. Poland will help and the closer Russian troops will be to their borders, the more intense the help will be.

[jipehog]

I agree, I just find that to be pointless nitpicking to the argument at hand, that it is naive to think that in this international conflict Ukraine is the only one that decides.

You are arguing that lacking external support Ukraine would still have options, that such a conflict could take years, and that Ukraine might still win through attrition. Sure, but how does that contradicts my point that lacking external support Ukraine's [conventional] military will be inventibly decimated, and that Ukraine would see unimageable devastation. And the stark contrast between that option and current talk about counteroffensive taking on Crimea is understood by Ukrainian decision makers.

[Random_Dragon]

My assumption here is that saying "Ukraine doesn't really have a say here" kinda probably sounds a bit like the "western puppet" arguments used by people who tend to defend Putin's actions, which is probably what prompted the counterargument as a result.

[Strongpoint]

It is more like the annoying narrative that goes like this:

1) Ukraine can successfully wage war only because it is provided with Western weapons
2) If the West will stop supplying weapons, Ukraine won't be able to fight
3) Not being able to successfully wage war Ukraine will do a rational thing and surrender to Russian demands
4) It means that the war will be over! Yay! No war is good! Stop giving Ukraine weapons!

And #3 here is plain wrong. In part because you don't surrender when the enemy has demonstrated that their goal is genocide. You don't even sign a ceasefire knowing that the goal is genocide, because it is obvious that this ceasefire is to prepare for the next attack and finish the job.

4 is also wrong because occupation is worse than war, but explaining that to this kind of pacifists and "pacifists" is useless.

[Random_Dragon]

Either way reeks of vatnik logic, yeah. :v

[EuchreJack]

Yes.
Now, let's move onto News in the News thread.
My Lock Finger is getting itchy.

[jipehog]

According to USA China is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia, although I suspect it is likely posturing that goes along their suggested peace plan, the carrot and the stick sort of thing.

My assumption here is that saying "Ukraine doesn't really have a say here" kinda probably sounds a bit like the "western puppet" arguments used by people who tend to defend Putin's actions, which is probably what prompted the counterargument as a result.

It does feels like much here is knee jerking to narratives.. although here it started with report of NATO-Ukraine pact, then couple of negative comments later translate to defending that west isn't 'pressuring Ukraine' to make peace.. so essentially the exact opposite of Russia's narrative at least in the iteration I know, they have so many of those nonsensical narratives that it is impossible to track.

[EuchreJack]

According to USA China is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia, although I suspect it is likely posturing that goes along their suggested peace plan, the carrot and the stick sort of thing.

My assumption here is that saying "Ukraine doesn't really have a say here" kinda probably sounds a bit like the "western puppet" arguments used by people who tend to defend Putin's actions, which is probably what prompted the counterargument as a result.

It does feels like much here is knee jerking to narratives.. although here it started with report of NATO-Ukraine pact, then couple of negative comments later translate to defending that west isn't 'pressuring Ukraine' to make peace.. so essentially the exact opposite of Russia's narrative at least in the iteration I know, they have so many of those nonsensical narratives that it is impossible to track.

This is a good point, which illustrates why we keep the News thread and Emotional thread seperate.

However, Lord Shonus did a good job carefully analyzing the news article.  So some commentary is certainly valuable, we just have to avoid Emotionally reacting, as much as possible.

It would also be requested that people avoid criticizing other forumites.

Remember:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

No Fighting in the War Room

[martinuzz]

A number of Russian regional media gave a false air raid alarm and local radio and tv broadcasts urged the population to run for the bomb shelters, because of an incoming missile strike. People were seen panicking and running and tumbling through the streets looking for cover.
Apparently the false intel was due to cyberattacks on Gazprom Media, which controls a lot of local media. Russia blames Ukraine.

[da_nang]

Spoiler: SFW frame, taken from NSFL video (click to show/hide)

Moments before execution of POW by firing squad.
Last words: "Слава Україні."
Assumed executed by Russians, now war criminals.
Date and Location still unknown, presumed recent.

[EuchreJack]

I would prefer if we had more links, info, etc.
But yeah, that sucks.

I have created a backup Emotional thread, in case the primary is compromised.

[King Zultan]

What does NSFL stand for?

[MaxTheFox]

What does NSFL stand for?

Not Safe For Life. Basically stuff that can traumatize someone sensitive like gore, rape, some medical conditions. It's also not safe for work but simply NSFW usually means porn.

[King Zultan]

There's some porn that'd count as not safe for life.

[da_nang]

Executed POW has been tentatively identified as Tymofiy Shadura by the Ukrainian Military.