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[bloop_bleep]

*takes out drum set*

[Great Order]

So Russia isn't turning out to be Argentina in the Falklands war.

Russia's turning out to be Russia in WWI

USSR MKII folks?

[Lord Shonus]

A new USSR is about the only way we could make the situation worse. At least, short of crowning one of the Romanov heirs.

[Strongpoint]

So Russia isn't turning out to be Argentina in the Falklands war.

Russia's turning out to be Russia in WWI

USSR MKII folks?

I doubt it

There is no ideology as strong and alluring as young XXth century socialism in modern Russia to 1) launch a revolution 2) Win in a resulting civil war 3) Keep the empire almost intact.

(Note I said socialism, not bolsheviks... Bolsheviks weren't the main force of the revolution, merely one of many socialist movements. They just rode the waves of chaos the best thanks to their ruthlessness and managed to destroy all other socialists)

[MaxTheFox]

Yeah even if there is a revolution, it will not be a communist one. I don't want that either. I am a Menshevik larper, not some kind of tankie.

[nenjin]

The worst parts of a revolution come immediately after they achieve their aims.

[Strongpoint]

Reminder: this is supposed to be a news thread

[Great Order]

Fair enough, I keep confusing the two of them.

[EuchreJack]

Fair enough, I keep confusing the two of them.

I changed the name, hope that helps.

[Starver]

Following on from the Azerb/Arm flare-up, now another Stan-on-Stan spate of fighting. With Russia wanting to mediate... Nice to know they care.

(I admit, I'm too lazy to make sure I spelt all the nations correctly, so just ducked the issue on the main four!)

[EuchreJack]

Russia: Stop fighting, kids.
The Stan Brothers: Fuck you, Dad.

[bloop_bleep]

I didn't know Kyrgyz- and Tajikistan had enmity between them. Sigh. I thought that area was pretty peaceful at least.

[da_nang]

That border is border gore central, with critical water resources to boot.

I'm surprised Uzbekistan isn't joining in. They're sitting on a highly-populated lush valley with only a single mountain road as a direct land connection.

[Strongpoint]

Tajikistan is a quite poor authoritarian country with a rapidly growing young population (It was ~5M in 1991, ~10M now)  and under the huge influence of drug lords trafficking heroin from Afghanistan (it is around 1/3 of their GDP if you include shadow economy).

Russian huge (compared to Tajik) economy was the main stabilizing factor, with many, many young Tajiks working in Russia not only removing unemployed young men from the country but also bringing a nice influx of cash those workers send home.

Now, with the recession in Russia (caused by some mysterious reason...) this stabilizing factor is vanishing. It may explode any moment... And I think the local dictator tries a small victorious war against a neighbor to prevent this.

Kyrgyzstan is in a way similar but it is not on a major drug trafficking route and it is a relatively democratic country with frequently changing governments (even if transitions are often... quite violent) they also have growing population but to a lesser degree (from ~4.5 in 1991 to ~6.5 now). They are also less dependent on Russia, with their spare workforce going not only to Russia but also to Kazakhstan

Also, note that Tajiks and Kyrgyzs aren't closely related culturally. Tajiks speak Farsi and Kyrgyz language is from Turkic family. Don't think about "stans" that they are closely related nations.

I predict that this region WILL explode one way in another. Americans leaving Afghanistan is one destabilizing factor, the Russian economical crisis (and loss of respect towards their military might) is another.

[KittyTac]

Spoiler: HERE IT COMES (click to show/hide)

Courtesy of the CDDA server.