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[Loud Whispers]

This video does a pretty good argument positing that what air frames Ukraine actually receives is of secondary importance to what hardware is sent with it. The primary thesis is that Ukraine needs western jets compatible with long range weapons capable of targeting Russian air defences or deep targets without putting Ukrainian pilots in mortal danger, but that without these long range weapon systems, western jets or ground attack craft would be ineffective in the face of Russia's still potent air defences. But they also bring up another valid point which is that even if Ukraine does not gain the ability to launch offensive operations in the air deep into Russian occupied space (at least without needlessly risking the lives of its pilots), the existence of such offensive capabilities would force the Russians to engage in more combat air patrols which would degrade the combat readiness of the Russian air force and thus still contribute to Ukrainian victory

[jipehog]

Russia steps up efforts to boost army size Meanwhile, EU leaders are visiting China in the hope of bring Russia to its senses and the negotiating table.

Lukashenko dance on a thin rope with a looming Russia integration but elsewhere Russia seem to be loosing grip, there are growing divisions within the CSTO in Armenia over Russia failure to meet its role as security grantor and central Asia over divergence of interest [1] and looming Chinese economic influence, Russia also give way in the artic.

[1] btw CSTO --the Russian led ~version of NATO-- was formed in 2002 shortly after USA invasion of Afghanistan and was mainly driven by threats emanating from there, since USA withdrawal there have been much less unity of purpose on Afghanistan from everyone in the region, not just CSTO members.

----

A recent update to the excellent analysis posted above:

"A Ukrainian official reported that Russian aviation units are changing tactics, possibly due to aviation losses and depleted stocks of high-precision weapons. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuri Ihnat reported on April 7 that Russian aviation units are reducing their operations in the immediate vicinity of Ukrainian positions and are increasingly relying on more remote aviation strikes with guided aerial bombs.[11] Ihnat stated that Russian Su-35 aircraft can use these munitions from more than 50km away from the line of contact and that Ukrainian forces are unable to drive Russian aviation units away from Ukraine’s borders at this range.[12] These modified aerial bombs are likely less precise than other munitions that Russian aviation units have previously used in Ukraine. Russian forces may be changing aviation tactics to mitigate the risk of further aviation losses by operating out of the range of most Ukrainian anti-aircraft and air defense systems, at the cost of the ability to conduct close air support."
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-7-2023

[EuchreJack]

Nothing groundbreaking in this article, but still interesting:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/07/the-russians-arent-just-running-out-of-tanks-theyre-running-out-of-tank-crews-too-and-its-going-to-get-worse/?sh=90d74664ba30

[brewer bob]

From the Guardian:

Pentagon leaks linked to young gun enthusiast who worked at military base – report

Man known online as ‘OG’ is said to have access to large amounts of classified material and to regard intelligence services as repressive

The man responsible for the leak of hundreds of classified Pentagon documents is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group.

[...]

There is increasing evidence that the leak was not an intelligence operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US, but more likely the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting top secret security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors. The number of employees and contractors in the entire US government with top secret clearance is about 1.25 million.

A racist gun enthusiast? Who would've guessed!

[scriver]

Ah, man. What a delightfully miserable little pile of secrets insecurity

[King Zultan]

Seems like there sure are a lot of people out there willing to risk jail time to impress punch of assholes on the internet.

[EuchreJack]

Link I found:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/13/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-military-base/index.html

[ChairmanPoo]

Discord is clearly dangerous and should be banned

[jipehog]

its a 21 IT guy. I am not surprised, we can often be invisible, although in the intelligence departments usually there are escorts for outsiders.

[EuchreJack]

Yup
https://apnews.com/article/leaked-documents-pentagon-justice-department-russia-war-d3272b34702d564fe07a480598bcd174

Kinda stupid that the US Government let their phone guy have access to battle plans on the Ukrainian War, but whatever

[Grim Portent]

It's apparently pretty common for people to get access to a broad swathe of classified documents when they do work for the Government. Anyone who's going to be working with computers, various guards and so on. People you wouldn't expect, but it's more practical to give them clearance and drill it into them that if they take advantage of it they'll be facing treason charges than it is to try and partition things so the guys can't see what they're working with.


My dad did a cable installation for a Cold War era nuclear bunker here in Scotland when he was in his 20s. Was kind of an open secret that the place existed even before being declassified from what I'm told. It was just understood that you didn't talk about it too much.

[Lord Shonus]

Yup
https://apnews.com/article/leaked-documents-pentagon-justice-department-russia-war-d3272b34702d564fe07a480598bcd174

Kinda stupid that the US Government let their phone guy have access to battle plans on the Ukrainian War, but whatever

He's not a "phone guy". Communications includes computer networks, a job that's impossible to do without security clearance when the computer network in question is full of classified material. The Air National Guard is a combat unit, and the Ukraine War is not only the biggest conventional war in decades but is one where there is a real chance that equipment will be stripped from the ANG for aid. IT guy for a combat unit in this situation is somebody you would very much expect to have that kind of access.

[EuchreJack]

More info on how not to leak government documents:
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-21-year-old-accused-leaking-us-intelligence-was-identified-2023-4?amp

[Duuvian]

Discord is clearly dangerous and should be banned

Hehe, CNN called it a dark corner of the internet. I showed my dad on his phone how it's pre-installed into the OS and can't be removed (maybe with 3rd party?)

EDIT: I don't use Discord myself; I think I possibly used it for voice chat in Planetside 2 some years ago but it might have been a different voice comms thingy.

EDIT2: I've derailed this thread, sorry. I saw ChairmanPoo's post and thought it was funny and momentarily forgot what thread this was.

[scriver]

It's not that big of  derailment, I minor bump and jump back into the tracks at most