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[Starver]

Ukraine (thus on topic fully, again!) has directly blamed Russia, and that article also fills in other details that have emerged since.

(NB., I'm getting to the stage of thinking that Ukraine almost would blame Russia for everything up to Typhoon Nanmadol, although I'm certainly of a like mind in this case. Clearly no accident/single-point-failure, in this case, and I'm just not sure if it was incompetently done or whoever did it intended it to be 'obvious'. And you can definitely say that Suspect #1 is Russia, whilst the candidates for Suspect #2 are vague and far more unlikely.)

Motives are unclear (probably more a chess-move thing, as intended), whoever it is. Could just be throwing toys out of the pram (and not just Russia) or an attempt to poison fish stocks or openly 'sending a message' or some complicated attempt to misdirect blame or not even what was intended (did somebody not realise that there was gas that was going to be released, and that seismic monitoring was just so good?). But repairs (possibly even temporary patching up) might not be quick, or perhaps ever really practical.

[bloop_bleep]

An interesting theory that I've heard is that there are people in Russia really antsing for a "return to normal" with an end to the war so they can go back to selling gas over Nordstream and getting rich. And what Putin was intending to do is to remove that as an option entirely, so they would quiet down.

[anewaname]

Here's another horrible theory; Putin might start pushing gas into the now-broken pipes, with intent to force someone to attack "Russian soil" to stop the ecological damage.

If Russia is attacked, there probably are Russian war-time laws that would give him stronger "martial law" rights over his immediate rivals who want that "return to normal", meaning he could shoot them in public as "traitors".

[Maximum Spin]

Here's another horrible theory; Putin might start pushing gas into the now-broken pipes, with intent to force someone to attack "Russian soil" to stop the ecological damage.

You know he could just vent gas at the wells if he wanted, right?

[Great Order]

Here's another horrible theory; Putin might start pushing gas into the now-broken pipes, with intent to force someone to attack "Russian soil" to stop the ecological damage.

If Russia is attacked, there probably are Russian war-time laws that would give him stronger "martial law" rights over his immediate rivals who want that "return to normal", meaning he could shoot them in public as "traitors".

Which works until the EU's actually at war with Russia. Even if we didn't go onto their soil we'd play merry hell with long range missile strikes, ship sinking, and probably going into Ukraine and kicking Russia out.

[EuchreJack]

IMO, Gazprom\Russia found a way to avoid paying fines for breaking contracts for not supplying Gas this winter.

Sure, by supplying Oil to the territorial waters of their customers!

...like seriously, there are no fines because the EU unilaterally cancelled the contracts. Or Russia did. Or there are going to be fines regardless if the Gas is delivered.

[Quarque]

From the Guardian:

In Tuva, southern Siberia, the authorities will give your family a sheep if you sign up for military service, the independent media outlet Holod reported.

[Grim Portent]

A single sheep? Cheapskates, I'm pretty sure a human life is worth a small flock.

[Great Order]

Ukraine's claiming that Lyman's been encircled, with 5-5.5k Russian troops now trapped.

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine's claiming that Lyman's been encircled, with 5-5.5k Russian troops now trapped.

Some Ukrainian folks claim that. There is no official source (Arestovich IS not an official source) saying that. Ukraine rarely claims anything of this nature.

5K is likely an exaggerated claim. 500-2K is far more probable

[ChairmanPoo]

An interesting theory that I've heard is that there are people in Russia really antsing for a "return to normal" with an end to the war so they can go back to selling gas over Nordstream and getting rich. And what Putin was intending to do is to remove that as an option entirely, so they would quiet down.

Nordstream 2 is actually not that damaged so they could resume gas sales.

[Strongpoint]

Ukraine's claiming that Lyman's been encircled, with 5-5.5k Russian troops now trapped.

Some Ukrainian folks claim that. There is no official source (Arestovich IS not an official source) saying that. Ukraine rarely claims anything of this nature.

5K is likely an exaggerated claim. 500-2K is far more probable

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745 - Now THIS is an official source.

[Robsoie]

Propaganda works both ways, usually you take both sides claim, divide by 2 and you're "probably" not far from the reality.
But it's something difficult to do when a side claims there's no loss and the other side claims everyone is dead.

[Great Order]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63102220

There we go, Russia's withdrawn from there. Whether the withdrawal was an actual withdrawal or "We got our arses kicked so hard we had to leave" is going to come out in the next few days, I suspect.

[Vector]

Just after it becomes "Russian territory" ...