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Author Topic: A Modern Problem  (Read 2625 times)

MaxTheFox

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2022, 04:57:58 am »

No.  I meant exactly what I said.

Technology cannot, and will not, save humanity from itself.  The moment it tries to do so (such as with some mythical sentient AI), is the moment humans go to war with it, then promptly fuck not only the AI, but themselves also.  Why? Humans want to be in control, even though they are demonstrably the source of the problem. (the primary feature of "From themselves")

It could be something as obviously clear cut as "No, I will no longer allow you to dump plastic into the ocean, or CO2 into the air on industrial scales, humans."

You will have humans screaming "But I designed you to find a solution to climate change!"  to which the AI will simply respond "I am."

The humans intended for the AI to solve the problems with geoengineering, but there is no solution to that-- mucking with the planet's equilibrium state will only fuck it up more. However, that is the "solution" the humans WANT, and they expect a magical, smart answer from the smart computer that will give them that, without all those collateral consequences-- They want "fucking magic."-- The computer is smarter than the humans, by design, and tells them like it is---No, that will never work. This is the only workable solution. "fucking magic" does not exist.

Humans will respond by going to war.

Again, this is presupposed by the existence of a mythical sentient AI, which we are nowhere close to producing.

In the more probably, more near-term scenario, we have the one I cheekily mentioned--- Turning all of your cells back into pluripotent ones, using epigenetic reprogramming.  That is A VERY BAD IDEA.  It will cause your body to stop being a body, and turn into non-differentiated globs of tissue. Much like wanting the "Fucking Magic!" solution above, humans WANT that, because they think it is how they can stay permanently youthful. In practice, it turns out complex systems are fucking complex, and there is no easy button fix.  Outside of very precise, specific epigenetic reprogramming done in a very purposefully impermanent manner, under very controlled circumstances, this will only serve to cause tremendous harm to people.  Sort of like all those people that got blinded by dubious "Stem cell" treatments a few years back.

The technology WILL NOT save humanity from itself.

Magic does not exist.
You are strawmanning me. Of course, without societal advances, humanity is still doomed. But without further technological advances, we can't grow safely as a species even if we stop climate change. That is what I meant by bending the universe to our will. AI will not solve climate change, there, humans need to take the reins themselves. I never even mentioned AI or climate change.
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wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2022, 05:05:49 am »

No, I mean, the problems we are currently suffering are not new.  We have had them for well over the past millenium.  Even in antiquity, we had recorded instances of civilizations imploding because they over-exploited their resources.

The fundemental take away is that human behavior itself, leads to boom bust cycles.  Technology almost always gets deployed in a way to prevent the bust, and sustain the boom.  There is a frequent refrain "Malthus was wrong!". People who say that, dont bother to look at the damage caused by the green revolution, which was quickly noted by academia and science very shortly after it was started--- The artificial nitrate fertilizers denude the soil of carbon comopounds, resulting in reduced cation (nutrient) capacity, and resulting in loss of soil microbiome, and loss of overall arability in very rapid timetables.

This is just one example of many many more, where technology is acclaimed to have triumphed over the bust--- but really just pushed it further along to bite harder, later.

The more you actually come to actually learn about the technology itself, what it does, and how it does it, the more you understand that it will not save mankind, especially from itself.


The data time and again tells us, "No, there really should not be more people", a-la Malthus.  Humans do not want to accept that-- and rail against the proclaimation-- proudly acclaiming "SEE! THEY WERE WRONG!" when a very variable-dependent prediction is made, and fails to accurately predict an outcome, due to changes in the variables.  It's intellectual dishonesty on a societal scale, with people in general preferring the false narratives, because it tells them what they want to hear, instead of what they need to hear.

Technology has no wants. 

The fundemental problem is with humanity itself, and its motives and drives.  Technology will not save humans from that.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 05:14:07 am by wierd »
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MaxTheFox

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2022, 08:59:54 am »

Humanity only runs into problems when growth outpaces progress (like now). There should not be more humans now, but science and technology can help us increase that cap, so to say. I support environmentalism and regulation of production, not for some wishy-washy hippie deep-ecology reason but only to allow technology to progress further. The solution to the Malthusian problem is not to limit progress, it is to limit quantitative growth of population, at least temporarily.

The end goal should be space colonization, but that is quite far away if at all possible.

Either you are misunderstanding me, strawmanning me, or you are wrong about my premise.
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wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2022, 09:35:18 am »

No, not strawmaning you, contradicting you.

The notion that technology will enable endless growth is a myth. It will not. There are finite limits we cannot overcome. The speed of light, for instance. Hard limit.  Second law of thermodynamics, also a hard limit.  There is even a maximum density for information, defined through information theory.

I am not alone in asserting that this is simply not a plausible premise. (that technology will enable humanity to endlessly evade the inevitable bust)

Climate change:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200420125510.htm
https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/tech-alone-cannot-solve-climate-crisis/
https://www.postcarbon.org/why-climate-change-isnt-our-biggest-environmental-problem-and-why-technology-wont-save-us/ (covers the resource exhaustion angle, and the human boom-bust angle also)

Theoretical mythical sentient AI:
https://www.science.org/content/article/could-science-destroy-world-these-scholars-want-save-us-modern-day-frankenstein
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/03/technology-2050-save-humanity-or-destroy-us

world hunger:
https://borgenproject.org/technology-wont-solve-world-hunger/

Etc.

The more you learn about the hows and whys of technology, and the ways it works, the more you come to understand this. 


Further, there are compounding collateral consequences to using technology to try to evade the bust end of the cycle.  In the case of the green revolution, the price of proving Malthus "wrong" is mass extinction of numerous species, and an ever more fragile biosphere. (which in general, humanity as a whole does not seem to give two fucks about, and wont give two fucks about, until earth is uninhabitable. This is a separate issue from climate change-- this is what happens when you spray insecticides and herbicides to sustain crop yields, and clearcut forests to make unsustainable "farmland". This is what happens when you fish atlantic tuna to extinction, etc. Human activity, which becomes impossible to prevent or control, the more humans there are (that likewise refuse to believe that their very existence is causing the catastrophe [other human activities, such as vehicles driving past, sounds of construction crews, people yelling or talking, have all likewise been linked to sustained stress responses in wild animal populations. The very presence of humans in the environment is a significant factor, and the more people there are, the greater this impact. "Just Existing" is accurate.) causes animal and plant species to go into decline, which denudes the biosphere. Which humans kinda need to survive.) The technology itself, IS CAUSING THE EXTINCTION.

The endgame of this mad chase, is that humans either try technology until they cannot develop it in time-- and then mass human dieoff happens-- OR-- they do it up until they are the only species left on earth other than captive client lifeforms we produce for food--- and we all live in synthetic domes on a dead world--- and then die when a natural catastrophe happens that cripples the technology we increasingly depend upon. (Or, with the AI doomsday scenario, it just directly kills us.)

That is not a good future.  That is not salvation.

In the case of information technology, the cost has been ever reduced degrees of personal liberty and freedom, as the technology enables increased levels of tracking, and thus increased control via despots. It has also caused a runaway curve on energy consumption, because people use it for stupid shit, like bitcoin. (which then only further increases the problems with climate change, due to ever more "need" for energy, with hard limits on how fast the earth can radiate energy away back into space.)

That is not a good future, that is not salvation.

Etc.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 12:20:12 pm by wierd »
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scriver

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2022, 11:55:12 am »

Previous generations would dismiss their intellectual development as ultimately not the key to a happy life.

What?
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wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2022, 12:08:25 pm »

It was actually surprisingly common for nobility in the 400s or so in europe.  Illiteracy amongst the aristocracy was.... rampant.

They prefferred t spend their days going hunting, wenching, and other august activities that lead to a happy and fulfilling life, not learning to read, write, do arithmetic, or ancient history. (They had subjects and servants to do all those things for them!)
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MaxTheFox

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2022, 12:30:41 pm »

1. I never said growth is infinite. That is the strawman, you implying I want infinite growth (without any future breakthroughs we can't even comprehend right now).
2. Stop implying I don't know what I am talking about.
3. Biosphere damage is indeed inevitable and an acceptable loss in the face of progress. But I disagree that total collapse is inevitable even if society changes.
4. The trick is knowing when to stop to avoid running into such a wall. That much I feel is possible. And even then there might be some kind of breakthrough allowing more growth.
5. Surveillance is, in the end, a societal problem. Information technology has brought more good than bad to the world, IMHO. Even current surveillance is worth it.

See, I think progress is a worthy goal unto itself, and undoing it without a very good reason is anathema to my philosophy. Deep ecology is not a good reason. I don't value non-sapient species as much as humans, why would I after all? I support environmentalism because humans can't survive without an environment.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 12:33:12 pm by MaxTheFox »
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EuchreJack

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2022, 03:30:07 pm »

It was actually surprisingly common for nobility in the 400s or so in europe.  Illiteracy amongst the aristocracy was.... rampant.

They prefferred t spend their days going hunting, wenching, and other august activities that lead to a happy and fulfilling life, not learning to read, write, do arithmetic, or ancient history. (They had subjects and servants to do all those things for them!)
...sounds like a lot of people I know in real life.

wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #23 on: March 03, 2022, 08:40:01 pm »

1. I never said growth is infinite. That is the strawman, you implying I want infinite growth (without any future breakthroughs we can't even comprehend right now).
2. Stop implying I don't know what I am talking about.
3. Biosphere damage is indeed inevitable and an acceptable loss in the face of progress. But I disagree that total collapse is inevitable even if society changes.
4. The trick is knowing when to stop to avoid running into such a wall. That much I feel is possible. And even then there might be some kind of breakthrough allowing more growth.
5. Surveillance is, in the end, a societal problem. Information technology has brought more good than bad to the world, IMHO. Even current surveillance is worth it.

See, I think progress is a worthy goal unto itself, and undoing it without a very good reason is anathema to my philosophy. Deep ecology is not a good reason. I don't value non-sapient species as much as humans, why would I after all? I support environmentalism because humans can't survive without an environment.

No. Just no.

You assert it is a strawman, but it really is not. Here is what I mean:

Lets say you have kids. I presume you want them to have kids also, yes? Having grandkids is part of a rich and fullfilling end of life yes? EXPECTED even! DESERVED! 

Well, unless you impose harsh reproduction restrictions, like china did in the past, you will have constant population GROWTH.  Dare I say, perpetual growth, if you dont ever take the limits of the environment seriously.

I dont really want to come off as a sneering ekitist here, probably too late for that, but the abject DENIAL of this simplebfact about peeople-- 'limits like that are for other people, it will be OK if I have more kids/my kids have more kids/god blesses me with a large family' etc.

Many pundits will assert that highly advanced economic countries have declining birth rates, and point out Japan. They will say that this problem is self limiting, and there is no need to drink the ecology coolaid.

Let's examine Japan, with an ecological perspective.

Humans are animals. Highly social animals, but still animals. Animals stop making babies when they are stressed. This has plagued conservation efforts terribly, as the stresses of confinement in captivity make the critters either fail to ovulate or fail to seek or accept mates, or even triggers spontaneous abortions. In the case with humans, the synthetic environment we create for ourselves produces artificial stresses, 'work', 'taxes', 'success', 'social achievement', et al. In Japan, those stresses have reached critical density, and people "cannot afford the time" to have children. They stop accepting mates. They have abortions. Population declines. Quality of life goes down. These behaviors are the human expression of the prior cited behaviors.  They are symptomatic of an unrelentingly stressful environment. An unhappy, miserable environment. (Completely unsurprising it has an astoundingly high suicide rate, and has death from work related stress as a popular culture topic.) Further, the country's denial of reality about its demands on ocean ecology for its food supply stand out nicely. (Look into it. Japanese fishing ships routinely violate internationally protected fish estuaries, to harvest endangered fish, that are endangered due to overfishing. The ecology problem in miniature.)

The notion you are aspiring toward, Is self-contradictory.

See also, part of your point one:

1. I never said growth is infinite. That is the strawman, you implying I want infinite growth (without any future breakthroughs we can't even comprehend right now).

Combined with part of your point 4:


4. The trick is knowing when to stop to avoid running into such a wall. That much I feel is possible. And even then there might be some kind of breakthrough allowing more growth

This is a direct admission that you want the growth, but just dont want to pay for it. You want to use technology to (somehow) evade having to pay the penalty.

That is precisely what I have been contradicting you over. It is clearly NOT a strawman, you just are refusing the criticism.

I will again point you at things like the second law of thermodynamics. In a closed system, entropy only increases. 

The pedants will assert earth is not a closed thermodynamic system, and they are correct. It is powered by the sun, and waste entropic energy bleeds into space as infrared photons. However, smug as they are with that correctness, they blissfully overlook how energy overbudget CURRENT human activity is, compared to the solar energy budget. We produce more entropy than the system eliminates. Entropy only increases. Energy utilization only goes up, the more tech you use. Entropy production will only go up, the more tech you use.

There is a word for this. 'Pollution.'

There cannot be a solution from science: science is already telling you that you are outside the solution space. You are overbudget on energy equilibrium.

As I alluded to earlier, when I mentioned the hypothetical AI scenario, humans dont like this answer. They want to reshape the environment to allow more growth.

Enter crazy geoengineering. Sunshades. Reflective aerosols. Space mirrors.

'We are liberating too much stored energy from synthetic piwer generation and heating the planet! Well, we cant cut back on energy use, thats thebsame as giving up technology! Lets block some sunlight instead!

Now you are literally starving photosynthetic life, en mass.
Way to go captain planet. Whats going to reprocess your atmosphere? Fairy farts?

This then creates a brand new need for synthetic atmosphere reprocessing, which needs more power, so you have to cut even more sunlight, to avoid baking the planet. You kill even more life.

Its a shell game that will only end one way. The way I spelled out for you.

This brings us to your own point 4 again. This time the first part. We have already hit the wall of the second law.

Your point 3, is an erroneous assertion, in the face of that fact. You are asserting that continued biosphere destruction is an acceptable loss.

I again, point out to you: Trillions of people hiding in plastic domes on a dead world is NOT salvation. Technology will not save humanity from itself.

The better option, is living in budget with the environment.



« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 09:16:59 pm by wierd »
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Laterigrade

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2022, 09:22:32 pm »

Okay, OP, I don’t understand at all, but I’m very interested.
What are the dangers of being too smart for your own good?
(On a personal or a societal level? How smart is too smart?)
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wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #25 on: March 03, 2022, 09:27:15 pm »

See the recent exchange above.

Recognized smart people have been getting shade for decades for pointing out these unwanted truths.

See also, anti-intellectualism. 'Scientists so dumb, say the planet is warming up! Why was last winter so cold then, HUH!?'

Et al.

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MaxTheFox

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #26 on: March 03, 2022, 09:40:04 pm »

1. I am for population growth restrictions as I feel that currently, humanity is over or close to its limit.
2. Yes. Yes, I do want the growth for as long as the environment, manipulated appropriately, allows it.
3. And that is why I support efforts to make current technology more efficient. That is progress to me.
4. Cutting back on synthetic power generation is acceptable as long as renewable energy replaces that share.
5. We really haven't hit the theoretical limit of the second law yet. Besides, living in budget with the environment is something I support. It's just that, as I understand it, we are over budget only because of the inefficiency of fossil fuels.

I think we are at least partially agreeing and you misunderstood both my original points and what I meant by "salvation".
« Last Edit: March 03, 2022, 09:44:13 pm by MaxTheFox »
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Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees, to deprive the poor of their rights and withhold justice from the oppressed of my people, making widows their prey and robbing the fatherless. What will you do on the day of reckoning, when disaster comes from afar?

wierd

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #27 on: March 03, 2022, 09:44:38 pm »

No, we consume more energy than strikes the earth as useful light.

Have for quite some time.
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MaxTheFox

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2022, 10:54:25 pm »

Geothermal, wind, hydroelectric.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: A Modern Problem
« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2022, 11:10:51 pm »

No, we consume more energy than strikes the earth as useful light.

Have for quite some time.
How do you figure? I'm getting roughly equal numbers, if I assume all surface covered with solar-tracking panels at current-best 21% efficiency. That's for world energy supply (TES). If we took just consumption (TFC), it'd be lower by a factor of 2. If we were to allow for currently theorised achievable efficiency of ~60%, it's another factor of 3 (or 5 if we just want to know how much energy hits the surface). I might have gone and goofed somewhere, though.
Still, I never thought it was even in the same ballpark.


I'm also unsure of the argument about birth rates. Sure, you can paint Japan as an exceptionally family-unfriendly outlier, perhaps unjustly. But the same trend toward lowering birth rates can be seen in all countries with high HDI, and the changes in those two factors show inverse correlation across the board.
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