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[scriver]

Just read an interesting article (it's in Swedish an paywalled unfortunately) about how Ukrainian forces fought the Russian colon with "IT-rangers" (my terms).

I looked up the part of the name of the force, Aerorozvidka, that I didn't understand (aero is probably aero, right?) on google translate and it came up as "intelligence", is that correct-ish?

(On a side note when I first typed it into translate it suggested slovakian, where apparently allegedly it means "marriage difference"? Go home, Lech, you're drunk)

In this context, rozvidka = reconnaissance.

There's a wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerorozvidka

Ah, I didn't bother to check, didn't think there would be one.

I also learned today that Russian troops are reverse vampires

[Strongpoint]

One of my bigger fears about this whole conflict is that it might cause the collapse of Russia.

Then we don't have 'Russia with nukes', we'll have a warlord over here with nukes, a warlord over there with nukes, some coke dealers with nukes, some crazy oligarchs with nukes and then some.

This problem can be mitigated by military interventions of NATO\China that will destroy\capture nuclear facilities.

And Russia will either collapse or start WW3, there is no other end for this country possible. As soon as humanity will find alternatives to fossil fuels, Russia will end, one way or another. Their society can't function without massive amounts of free $$$. Yes, Moscow has other resources to extract from its colonies, but they are unlikely to be as meaningful as fossil fuels, energy was, is and will be the king of the world economy.


And I hope to live long enough to observe the collapse.

[EuchreJack]

One of my bigger fears about this whole conflict is that it might cause the collapse of Russia.

Then we don't have 'Russia with nukes', we'll have a warlord over here with nukes, a warlord over there with nukes, some coke dealers with nukes, some crazy oligarchs with nukes and then some.

BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!

The collapse of the USSR was widely feared for that exact reason.  It just didn't happen like that.
Basically, a leaky poorly-maintained nuclear arsenal will be traded away for whatever the rump country need/its ruler wants, in most cases.
In some fringe cases, you get a NK dictator that shakes their arsenal for stuff every once in a while.  Smaller countries are easier to control than larger countries.

[martinuzz]

In Japan, the post-WW2 taboo of speaking about leaving the path of miltary non-aggression is no more.
Politicians debate about expanding the military with offensive weaponry, and there are even talks about allowing the US to place nuclear weapons in their country, in response to Russia's aggression, and China's support.

[None]

offer rump and then
try drawing out one at a time

[MaxTheFox]

I feel deadass collapse is unlikely but a civil war is quite likely, and in that case I hope NATO intervenes on the anti-Putin side.

I'd fight for the rebels, myself.

[Random_Dragon]

In Japan, the post-WW2 taboo of speaking about leaving the path of miltary non-aggression is no more.
Politicians debate about expanding the military with offensive weaponry, and there are even talks about allowing the US to place nuclear weapons in their country, in response to Russia's aggression, and China's support.

This is gonna get spicy within the next decade, given how previously the cause of re-militarizing Japan was most strongly advocated by the ultranationalist and "Imperial Japan did nothing wrong, warcrimes are totally fun" types.

What was I saying earlier about fearing that the fallout of this clusterfuck might lead to a new era of militarism? Oh yeah... :/

[Strongpoint]

I feel deadass collapse is unlikely but a civil war is quite likely, and in that case I hope NATO intervenes on the anti-Putin side.

I'd fight for the rebels, myself.

Most likely, you won't. I think that should a Russian civil war happen, there will be no side you'll like.

Do Russian liberals have war veterans? Do Russian liberals have supporters among military generals or special service operatives? Do Russian liberals have any significant hope for international volunteers?

To wage war, one needs someone who knows how to wage it. In 2014, Ukraine had very few people who knew how to wage war and we nearly collapsed against a very limited operation (and still lost a large chunk of territory)

But still, we had:
1) Afghanistan war veterans
2) Chechen war veterans (both Chehens who fled to Ukraine and Ukrainian volunteers that fought that war,
3) Badly funded and corrupt remains of the army of the Ukrainian SSR 
4) Various paramilitary nationalist groups with some limited training
5) Some peacekeeping units that benefited from regular exercises with NATO
6) Civil resistance veterans of two revolutions who, while having no combat experience, had the necessary skills and organization to cover the logistics of the war.

What (and who) do Russian liberals have to wage a civil war? Why would any part of the Russian military machine join your side?

[hector13]

Russian soldiers are mostly conscripts who get convinced through hook or crook to contract with the army and then get lied to about where they’re going and what they’ll be doing when they get there.

They can’t fight against the “monster” (by which I mean that’s what the Russian propaganda machine has set Ukraine up to be) next door, what do you think they’ll do when asked to fire on their own people?

The liberals may not necessarily be the best or most popular choice for them, but it will be a choice some of them make.

[MaxTheFox]

Russian soldiers are mostly conscripts who get convinced through hook or crook to contract with the army and then get lied to about where they’re going and what they’ll be doing when they get there.

They can’t fight against the “monster” (by which I mean that’s what the Russian propaganda machine has set Ukraine up to be) next door, what do you think they’ll do when asked to fire on their own people?

The liberals may not necessarily be the best or most popular choice for them, but it will be a choice some of them make.

This. Even if there's no liberal faction, I don't live far from the Kazakh border and I can just flee if a civil war happens as a backup plan.

[EuchreJack]

Unfortunately, civilian dictatorships typically get overthrown by military dictatorships.  Putin, if overthrown, is most likely to get replaced by one of his generals (if he has any left).

[KittyTac]

Unfortunately, civilian dictatorships typically get overthrown by military dictatorships.  Putin, if overthrown, is most likely to get replaced by one of his generals (if he has any left).

Generals are dropping like flies TBH. And it can go either way, as history has shown.

[Strongpoint]

Russian soldiers are mostly conscripts who get convinced through hook or crook to contract with the army and then get lied to about where they’re going and what they’ll be doing when they get there.

They can’t fight against the “monster” (by which I mean that’s what the Russian propaganda machine has set Ukraine up to be) next door, what do you think they’ll do when asked to fire on their own people?

The liberals may not necessarily be the best or most popular choice for them, but it will be a choice some of them make.

And what choice will paratroopers, FSB's special units, militarized police, Kadyrov's thugs, Wagner's mercenaries make? What choice will the airforce and the navy make? Those are professionals and they have a lot to lose.

[bloop_bleep]

Widespread outrage at Putin continues to mount online even on the Russian web. Support is shrinking from what I've seen.

This is good to hear.

[Starver]

I also learned today that Russian troops are reverse vampires

...they will only enter your home if they aren't invited?