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[delphonso]

So what use could it have? Poison?

With all the rumor milling about Chernobyl - this might just be a political move for backroom agreements. Something like 'look, we're removing and containing waste. We're good guys!'

Otherwise, we'll see in a couple days that Russia uncovered 'evidence' of Ukrainian WMDs.

[Lord Shonus]

That's not really true. "Dirty Bombs" would generate no additional radioactives (well, OK, an extremely small, literally microscopic amount) beyond whatever it was salted with. Decontamination after a dirty bomb would be very similar to decontamination after a chemical weapon attack - hose down everything you can to wash the poison away, including the inside of buildings and especially any air filter systems - with the great advantage that every last speck of contamination is easy to detect with a handheld device. According to the NRC, the chemical explosives (dynamite, TNT, fertilizer, etc) from such a device is much more likely to cause real injury than anything you salt it with. The cleanup would be very expensive, and would make the area somewhat more dangerous to inhabit for long periods of time, but it isn't a doomsday weapon. Which is one of the reasons it was considered so attractive to terrorists - it's an extremely scary weapon, but isn't the kind of thing that's going to make somebody crack open the canned sunshine over the region you're hiding in.

The only time you'd need to remove entire topsoil layers and demolish buildings is if you were cleaning up the fallout from a full-scale strategic exchange. Most of the surface atomic tests released far more fallout than any dirty bomb would, for example, and Las Vegas is still inhabitable.

[Il Palazzo]

I wish this thread would stop doing what it keeps doing. Taking a piece of news, rarely from an unbiased source these days, and then wildly speculating on the worst possible interpretation.
Russians capture a nuclear plant - they want to cause a nuclear disaster. Russians send some people across to their side of the border - these people are about to be sold to sexual slavery and harvested for body parts. Russians are shelling residential areas in a besieged city - they want to genocide the Ukrainians. Russians capture a microbiology lab - they're going to release deadly pathogens. Russians are arresting dissenters - these people will be disappeared. Russians offer surrender - they will execute PoWs. Russians destroy a nuclear lab - they're going to start selling plutonium to Iran or make dirty bombs.
What's the point? The war is criminal enough as is, in a wholly mundane and seen-it-before way. No need to invent new ways for it to be despicable. All it does is feed into pent-up anger, until one evening you start drinking and vile thoughts come out.

[Strongpoint]

Putin announced Russia will only accept rubles for gas deliveries to Europe, starting from the next week.

It looks like a creative way to force the EU to embargo your natural gas.

[Starver]

It's applying an upwards pressure upon the currently devaluing currency, from below, if it forces either the spending of overseas Russian currency or even the conversion of 'western' currencies into the homegrown one (letting others worry how to get around any transaction sanctions that there are), either way translating demand for energy into probably the only significant demand for their currency.

An actual economist could describe it better (the hydraulic theory of finance, etc) and point out the other twists (and pitfalls) to the system. Also where modern economic theory pokes holee in the hydraulic tubes.

There's also not much use Russia trading in dollars/euros/etc if the primary markets for those aren't keen to take any money held by nationals or corporations for services to Russia, or the like, and the only outlet would be the third-parties who are picking up the slack, but leveraging the valuation differential to their advantage as middle-man in a three-or-more-currencies chain of conversion, at rates of exchange they can best control.

But the petroruble can't easily be made more significant than the petrodollar. It's an adjustment action, but a reactive one only. With disadvantages in the long term if the current market preferences don't move back to a more advantageous flow of supply and demand.

[martinuzz]

NATO chief Stoltenberg warned Russia to stop its 'dangerous and irresponsible nuclear weapon rattling'.
He says the NATO has a'very clear message'; 'a nuclear war cannot be won, and should not be fought'.
He reminded Russia that their nuclear rhetoric is in breach of agreements to which Russia is also a signatory.
'The use of nuclear weapons will fundamentally change the conflict, as will the use of chemical weapons. Any use of chemical weapons is unacceptable and will have far-reaching consequences'.

The secretay general spoke these words on the eve of president Biden's journey to Europe for a number of top meetings with NATO, the EU and G7.
'It is a crucial moment, now that we are faced with the biggest threat to security since the end of WW2'.
In that light, the NATO will also convene on the topic of China.
Stoltenberg says that 'China supports Russia politically, including the spread of blatant lies and desinformation.'
He expects that NATO leaders will ask China to take responsibiliy as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

He added that the NATO will start playing a more active role in partner nations, in keeping the sovereign integrity intact, and defending the freedom of nations to make their own choices, specifically mentioning Georgia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.



EDIT: In slightly hopeful news, 8 high ranking members of various Russian opposition parties have united themselves in an anti-war committee.
Amongst them are former oil tycoon Michail Chodorkovski, chess grandmaster Garri Kasparov, opposition leader Dmitri Goedkov, and Ljoebov Sobol, a trusted lieutenant of Aleksej Navalny.
The committee calls upon the Russian population to resist against the war.

"We represent different political streams, but now we have fused to form one anti-war committee, because we are of the opinion that Russia does not need this war. We have united, so the voices of Russians who are against the war can be heard across the world".
 
They also offer aid and protection for Russians that want to flee Russia, with legal aid and temporary shelter.

[EuchreJack]

I really don't understand why anyone thinks they can make China into anything other than the Used Car Salesman in this conflict...

It's pretty obvious how things are going to proceed.
Russia is unable to export goods in sizable quantities to anyone but China.
China thus purchases large quantity of Russian goods (like oil), slaps their country's label on it, and sells it off.
The Western Countries mostly accept this because:
1) They need those goods
2) They can't afford an embargo on China in concurrence with the embargo on Russia

At this point, we're just dicking around on the markup costs...

Note: The Sanctions will still hurt Russia, as China can pay significantly less than ordinary costs as the sole major purchaser.  They're basically Wal-Mart in all this.

[Grim Portent]

I'm not sure anyone thinks they can fully stop China from trying to position itself as the primary trade partner with Russia while sanctions last, but expressing a clear and immediate opposition to their support of Russia also affects the disposition of other states that might be on the fence with regards to the issue, especially if things escalate. It might also reduce the extent to which China is willing to back Russia, as it increases the percieved cost of more concrete forms of support.

I do find myself wondering how various countries are actually doing militarily after this though. Russia's armed forces seem to have been rotting through for some time now, and it's making me wonder how many other countries have the same issue. India and China both have huge armies, but if they're anything like Russia is for quality then I'm not sure they would stand up to much in a modern conflict.

[Strongpoint]

I really don't understand why anyone thinks they can make China into anything other than the Used Car Salesman in this conflict...

It's pretty obvious how things are going to proceed.
Russia is unable to export goods in sizable quantities to anyone but China.
China thus purchases large quantity of Russian goods (like oil), slaps their country's label on it, and sells it off.
The Western Countries mostly accept this because:
1) They need those goods
2) They can't afford an embargo on China in concurrence with the embargo on Russia

At this point, we're just dicking around on the markup costs...

Note: The Sanctions will still hurt Russia, as China can pay significantly less than ordinary costs as the sole major purchaser.  They're basically Wal-Mart in all this.

Russia is not yet embargoed. Western Sanctions are either of financial nature or prohibit export to Russia not import from it.

But if Embargo will be introduced (seems unlikely) your scheme will work rather poorly. The main Russian exports are Oil and Natural. You can't just sell it to China, you need proper infrastructure to transport it there. Oil can be transported with tankers, sure but it is far less efficient than transporting it to the EU using pipelines. (And China won't resell it, Chinese economy will find a use for it as they did with Iranian oil). No one will load a tanker in Russia, transport it to China and then to the EU...

Natural Gas is more complicated... Russia simply can't redirect the gas they sell to the EU to China. Not without spending many billions and years to build new gas pipes.

[martinuzz]

Russian journalist Oksana Baulina has been killed by a Russian rocket attack on the Kyiv district of Podil.
She was working for The Insider, a critical Russian news website that regularily debunks government fake news and publishes revealing investigations about the poisoning of opposition politicians, and the downing of flight MH17.

She used to work for Navalny's anti-corruption organisation, and became a journalist after the organisation was banned.

https://theins.ru/en/news/249571

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60855732

[brewer bob]

Was it already mentioned that Anatoly Chubais, Putin's international envoy, resigned? Probably doesn't have much impact, but maybe there's a slim chance we'll see more officials step down in an attempt to save their hides.

Source: BBC

[martinuzz]

The Urkrainian government reports that they have cut off and surrounded several thousands of Russian troops at the outskirt districts and villages northwest of Kyiv, taking control of the main roads leading in and out of the area.
Earlier this week, the Ukrainian army already recaptured Marakiv, crucial for controlling the highway out of Kyiv to Zjitomir.

According to Ukraine's presidential advisor Oleksi Arestovitsj, out of the 12000 troops besieging Kyiv, 3000 are completely cut off and surrounded, and another 4000 are in a 'very uncomfortable position, unable to move left or right'.

According to the US ministry of Defense, the Russians north of Kyiv have fallen back to form defensive positions, while in the east, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has driven back the Russians.

Estimated number of Russian dead is increasing, getting close to 20000

[Strongpoint]

Estimated number of Russian dead is increasing, getting close to 20000

Well, this is a Ukrainian official estimation, which is around 16K+ KIA now. One should always take someone's reports about enemy losses with a grain of salt.

NATO's estimation of Russian KIA+WIA+MIA is up to 40 000. For KIA it is  between 7,000 and 15,000

[martinuzz]

Some 5 days ago, official Russian state media (perhaps accidentally) reported 12k dead. It was removed from their site soon after.

[Lord Shonus]

I'm not sure anyone thinks they can fully stop China from trying to position itself as the primary trade partner with Russia while sanctions last, but expressing a clear and immediate opposition to their support of Russia also affects the disposition of other states that might be on the fence with regards to the issue, especially if things escalate. It might also reduce the extent to which China is willing to back Russia, as it increases the percieved cost of more concrete forms of support.

I do find myself wondering how various countries are actually doing militarily after this though. Russia's armed forces seem to have been rotting through for some time now, and it's making me wonder how many other countries have the same issue. India and China both have huge armies, but if they're anything like Russia is for quality then I'm not sure they would stand up to much in a modern conflict.

The problems plaguing Russia's military are quite possibly unique to Russia.  Mostmother countries aren't trying to maintain a US-level military on an Italy-level GDP in a government that was literally founded on the notion of stealimg any money that's not being watched like a hawk.

China in particular has more than adequate economy to support their military spending, and all evidence is that they seal rather harshly with people trying to steal from the governmemt. It is very likely that Russia's issues here are prompting a review, and we'll probably know pretty quick if anybody's beem stealing from China's military. Because China will shoot them.