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Author Topic: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)  (Read 68550 times)

hector13

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #795 on: March 13, 2022, 09:08:09 am »

Russia are actually firing on military targets?

I wonder if there was a hospital nearby that they missed accidentally.
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martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #796 on: March 13, 2022, 09:18:57 am »

This video explains why we don't want to enforce a no-fly zone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxJHecyYBno
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Duuvian

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #797 on: March 13, 2022, 09:47:54 am »

Ukraine can't realistically sortie interceptors to actually stop attacks; they can't reach enemy fighters launching missiles from the cover of their own air defense; they are already doing their best to shoot down Russian planes where possible. Launching fighters from the sea is completely nonsensical since Russia has total naval dominance (for all that it's [not] worth), and they don't need to anyway. They just can't afford to launch fighters because they'll get shot down by superior Russian numbers and newer, better fighters. Hence the very limited sorties they've been flying.

Yeah, I figured that too. However the Ukrainians have been asking for them so I thought I would support the idea if they thought the Migs could be utilized.

This video explains why we don't want to enforce a no-fly zone

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxJHecyYBno

I don't use youtube but I will take your word for it. I'm niot going to try to argue it currently other than to say it should be made ready if it's not because you might want a variant of it later. Again though, I'm not an expert.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2022, 09:58:16 am by Duuvian »
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martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #798 on: March 13, 2022, 09:53:22 am »

I won't argue with you there, and I am reasonably confident that just about every NATO air interdiction system is on higher than high alert to be ready for anything.
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Cthulhu

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #799 on: March 13, 2022, 10:12:50 am »

The only thing I have left to say about no fly zones is that I'm glad the question is moot because it'll never happen.

It is painful to watch Ukraine suffer and feel like you can't do anything about it but the reality is

1. We are doing something about it.  We've dropped a Dresden bombing's worth of sanctions on them and their economy is going to be in absolute ruins.  We've also sent lethal aid that's killed hundreds of Russians and destroyed billions in military hardware, and Russia hasn't done shit about either of these things because they're just as scared of our nukes as we are of theirs.

2. if you have nukes you can mostly do whatever you want to people who aren't under a nuclear-armed treaty organization. America has done it too, with just as much pain and suffering.  Welcome to the real world, it fucking sucks.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #800 on: March 13, 2022, 10:26:58 am »

America has done it too, with just as much pain and suffering.  Welcome to the real world, it fucking sucks.

I'd love to hear about any war in which the USA shelled residential areas of large cities with cluster munitions and deliberately targeted hospitals and food warehouses.
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Starver

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #801 on: March 13, 2022, 10:41:20 am »

As Ukraine comes under increased attack from the air without increasing ability to defend itself in that regard, one frequently wonders why such a vulnerability to civilians from that layer has not been rectified to a greater degree. I have heard on the news that "dumb" bombs are being used on cities, so Ukrainians appear to have need for at a minimum for defensive equipment systems that can drive off mid and high altitude fast moving aircraft, but I am not an expert on those things.
Ukraine actually 'natively' has mid/high-altitude AA systems, courtesy of their soviet legacy and some basic upgrading (because Russia is short of any really fancy stealth stuff). Western systems are being employed to fill in at the low-level, with man-portable launchers, etc.

Quote
The following are silly suggestions after considering Russia is launching planes from Belarus anyways but if the problem is still "logistics" for the Mig29s is it possible to modify them with a jettisonable float for a one time seaplane takeoff, or is it legal to convert one of the seized oligarch yachts into a one time launch platform or carrier conversion?
Floats on a typical modern jet fighter/multirole aircraft..? Unless designed in (e.g. the Ekranoplan, which is a jet-seaplane that doesn't even expect to properly fly) I can't see that making any sense, except as an aderenaline-rush for some bored jet-jockey with loads of experience (and far less sense) to try once. Twice if the first time actually worked.

If you look at the kind of things that were built (in a few cases, often no further than prototypes) or designed, you'll see that jet planes intended for aquatic/amphibious roles are basically flying-boats (buoyancy designed into the airframe) rather than sea-planes (buoyancy available as undercarriage). There are challenges to water-take-off that a Mach-capable plane (therefore needs a relatively high take-off speed) wouldn't work well with, even with a jettisonable float which would need to be designed and tested given that it's not been too many people's answer to any serious question when you can design for carrier-launching instead.

Rigging a superyacht with a carrier-sized flight-deck (not just helo-pad) would also need plenty of yard-time even to create sufficient launch-deck (with catapult system?) but which you'd have to lift your planes onto as there's not enough to land. Seems like a good way to get through your stock of airworthy planes, and those that remain airworthy (after take-off, mission and then finding somewhere to land) need a lot of effort to set up for a second such jaunt.

What was the reason for this, again? It's not that Russia has air-supremacy over land (which it doesn't) but for some reason the Black Sea Fleet isn't checking everything it can within Ukrainian territorial waters...

Quote
In addition, this attack was carried out by aircraft mounting cruise missiles according to the NY times. I would guess those can launch from outside the range of anti-air defenses. I imagine that complicates things a great deal, and I am not knowledgeable enough to know whether interceptors could have intercepted them or not.
Realistically, plane-launched cruise-missiles may well be dropped from the planes well outside Ukrainian airspace. This may possibly be in range of (any surviving) AA batteries or intercepters stationed near the ground border, but does mean firing into (Belo)Russian skies. Something I think even Ukrainian pilots/gunners might not do without pause, and if it was a third-party doing it it would be seized upon as an attack on Russian territory (regardless of the justification).

You ideally want to shoot the plane before it looses the missile, also, and (as Russia/its 'local' forces discovered) shooting a plane that might be on totally innocent business causes a lot of fuss. Russia can be (has been) brazen-necked about that sort of thing when it makes it happen, but would also probably take full advantage of any hint of doubt if even a 'training flight' is clipped of its wings by 'western aggressors'.


The best thing to do, really, is to keep the Ukrainians supplied with as much air-defence/iron-done-style equipment as possible and let them work out how to deploy it to their best effort. (In fact, if anyone else started patrolling up there, there is potential for IFF to go wrong. The protectors ending up being targetted/enemies being assumed friendly, either case reducing their current home-grown capabilities to use their ground-based AA systems.)
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Strongpoint

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #802 on: March 13, 2022, 11:33:01 am »

Quote from: Duuvian link=topic=179592.msg8359344#msg8359344

Foreign military instructors worked at the Yavoriv military facility near the Polish border that was hit by the attack, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said, but it was not clear if any were present at the time.

My brother is there. It was the longest day of my life but we got a phone call from him and he is fine.
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They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

martinuzz

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #803 on: March 13, 2022, 11:38:52 am »

An unknown number of Dutch volunteers that were training there were injured as well.
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

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Duuvian

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #804 on: March 13, 2022, 12:28:53 pm »

Alright, thanks for the explanations Starver.

I had read that a problem was where the Migs launched from. I assumed, likely incorrectly, that launching from international water would absolve that one issue. They were pretty bad ideas I didn't spend much time on. The idea for a jettisonable float came from a Japanese prop floatplane from WW2 (so it could gain performance) but it was pretty stupid of me to apply it to these.

TBH I think I should lay off from posting unless I know more about the subject at hand than I did this one. I should have asked questions instead. Sorry for the rant.. again.
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Starver

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #805 on: March 13, 2022, 02:08:21 pm »

Not a rant, AFAIWC. If anything, I overdid the response.

And the Japanese famously configured planes that would only need to safely take off and perform a single mission... ;)
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Magmacube_tr

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #806 on: March 13, 2022, 05:05:00 pm »

Here I am thinking...

Who cares?

Whatever goals any of the idiots at charge are chasing after do not matter. What they think they do, also does not.

The planetary conditions as they are won't stay like this for long. In fact, they are already outta whack.

This will change. Fast. And by then, it won't matter how much political influence, money, or whatever utterly meaningless, mostly made up crap they may have.


It doesn't matter which one of the megalomaniac idiots win this cutthroat, bloodsoaked game of Monopoly, the board is on Titanic.

Thousands of people are dead. Blown into pieces, pierced with bullets.

For what?

Nothing. Literally nothing.
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hector13

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #807 on: March 13, 2022, 05:17:06 pm »

War sucks brah. Can’t just roll over and let the other guy win though.
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The_Explorer

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #808 on: March 13, 2022, 05:41:03 pm »

Seems Russia officially asked for China's support.

We'll see how China responds.
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hector13

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Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« Reply #809 on: March 13, 2022, 05:45:42 pm »

China’s embassy in Washington has said their aim is to stop the war getting out of control.
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Look, we need to raise a psychopath who will murder God, we have no time to be spending on cooking.

the way your fingertips plant meaningless soliloquies makes me think you are the true evil among us.
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