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[martinuzz]

I can't find that in the link you posted

[brewer bob]

I can't find that in the link you posted

Here's the copypasta:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

22:18 11 Mar
Fallout for Russia's spies?
Gordon Corera
Security correspondent

The fallout from the failure of Russia’s plans may be hitting its spy agencies.

Reports – still unconfirmed – say two senior officials from the FSB – Russia’s Security Service – have been placed under house arrest.

One of them, it is said, is Sergey Beseda – the head of the 5th Service of the FSB. This department is responsible for intelligence gathering and operations in Ukraine. His team is thought to have been behind plans to install a pro-Moscow government in some kind of coup and may be blamed for the failure to understand the level of opposition in the country.

"It seems that after two weeks of war, Putin finally realised that he was simply misled: the 5th Service, afraid of infuriating the leader, simply supplied him with what he himself wanted to hear," said Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, two leading experts on Russia’s spy agencies, who first reported that the arrests may have taken place.

The department was also thought to have been building networks of undercover agents ready to be activated when the invasion started. But either they did not exist as promised or failed to have the desired impact.

If the reports of arrest are confirmed, they could be because someone needs to take the fall for the failures or because of some other manoeuvrings.

“If claims of their arrest are correct, this would indicate that Putin is seriously concerned about the FSB’s role in the military campaign and there could be significant changes at senior levels in the FSB,” one Western official said.

A number of supposed letters from anonymous insiders at the FSB have also been circulating on social media painting a bleak picture inside Russian intelligence – these have also not been confirmed but experts think they sound plausible.

And the extent to which the West has been able to gather its own intelligence on Moscow’s plans will also have set alarm bells ringing – leading to fears in Moscow that they might have Western moles inside their ranks or that their communications are being intercepted.

Add to that the fact that Putin very publicly humiliated the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, on the eve of the invasion and you get a sense that beneath the surface of the normally hidden world of Russia’s spies, these are deeply unsettling times.

[Starver]

That BBC link is one of those unsanitary "loads of unnecessary additional parameters" ones, that I'd have cut down to a direct[1], personally. But I couldn't find the story on there (even sanitised of all that bumf), so if you don't mind a link to typical newspaper website with its inherent ad-loading scripts (which I had to disable, on this particular computer, to stop the browser freaking out, but is actually just the overloaded news-site format) then maybe that's good enough for you.


[1] If it weren't a 'container' page, within which presumably there is the link to the actual article page. I tend to avoid the "As it happens..." pages, and navigate purely by the usual subject-header pages.

[brewer bob]

There's a longer article on Meduza for those interested.

[McTraveller]

Are there any official legal reasons why countries can't impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine? Or is it just the looming threat of escalation that prevents it?

What about if a non-NATO country imposed it?

EDIT: And what's going to happen in the grim situation if Russia does indeed take Kyiv? Is the world just going to throw up its hands and go "oh, well"?

And what is this (AlJazeera.com) about ballistic missiles that Iran says it fired into Iraq, targeting an Israeli facility?

Diplomacy seems to be getting thrown to the wayside...

[ChairmanPoo]

Largely escalation.

Also it's questionable to what degree a no-fly zone would work. Russians are barely using the air force.

[martinuzz]

It's just the looming threat of escalation.

Legally, it would be no problem. Ukraine requested it itself.

EDIT: Meanwhile in Iraq, 12 ballistic missiles were fired at Erbil, according to the Kurdish security forces they were aimed purposedly at the US consulate. According to the US, the missiles came from Iran.

[Strongpoint]

Are there any official legal reasons why countries can't impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine? Or is it just the looming threat of escalation that prevents it?

Imposing no-fly zone = enforcing it = shooting down Russian aircrafts = Being in a de-facto war with Russia.


Edit: What I'd love to see is EU's full embargo on Russian gas and oil. Like NOW. Yes I understand that it will cost EU countries many % of GDP, that it will result in national emergencies but... It isn't even about saving Ukrainian lives by collapsing Russian Economy ASAP, it is about preventing their ability to go further later

[ChairmanPoo]

Are there any official legal reasons why countries can't impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine? Or is it just the looming threat of escalation that prevents it?

Imposing no-fly zone = enforcing it = shooting down Russian aircrafts = Being in a de-facto war with Russia.

It's beyond that: imposing no fly zone = fly nato planes in ukraine within range of Belarus and Russia AA missiles. Which btw NATO air forces are able to suppress but it's  by bombing the fuck out of said air bases before they shoot. But THIS means preventive strikes into Russian soil


By that same rule of thumb I suspect the russians wont dare attack bases in  NATO soil despite their posturing about weapon shipments.

[Strongpoint]

Kyiv region police chief Andriy Nebytov reports that New York Times journalist Brent Renaud, a US citizen, was shot and killed on the outskirts of Kyiv today.

[Madman198237]

Instituting a no-fly zone is for all intents and purposes joining the war on Ukraine's side. As soon as Russia decides to poke the bear by flying sorties regardless, war is getting declared. We're not in some video game where there's rules you and the enemy must follow, where your coalition can just declare a no-fly zone with the power of the UN or something and everyone is forced to obey it. In diplomacy and war, the rules are made up and the words don't matter, all that matters is the practical reality.

And in this case, the practical realities look a lot like "nobody wants to start a shooting war with Russia, weak though they are", and "nobody wants to straight up end Russian energy imports, because it'd cripple their economy/power grid/etc.".

[martinuzz]

Yeah, right now going full oil and gas sanctions would come down to saying 'sorry Paris, sorry future generations, bye bye climate plans, we need to reopen our coal power plants'.

That, or convince Germany they should reopen their nuclear plants.

Kyiv region police chief Andriy Nebytov reports that New York Times journalist Brent Renaud, a US citizen, was shot and killed on the outskirts of Kyiv today.

That is of little consequence if true. Article 5 does not apply to NATO citizens killed outside NATO territory.
Shooting a reporter is a war crime though.

[martinuzz]

Russia attacked a base 20km from the Polish border, that was used to ferry Western weapon shipments and train foreign recruits.

EDIT: Volkskrant confirms the death of Brent Renaud. An unnamed US colleague has been injured and taken to a hospital.

[Duuvian]

There's a longer article on Meduza for those interested.

Yes, seeing that on the news made me wonder if in those circumstances had Ukraine previously made an offer that overlapped significantly with Putin's demands if that information would have even been passed upwards to Putin to decide whether to approve further negotiations if that is of benefit to Russia.

As Ukraine comes under increased attack from the air without increasing ability to defend itself in that regard, one frequently wonders why such a vulnerability to civilians from that layer has not been rectified to a greater degree. I have heard on the news that "dumb" bombs are being used on cities, so Ukrainians appear to have need for at a minimum for defensive equipment systems that can drive off mid and high altitude fast moving aircraft, but I am not an expert on those things.

The following are silly suggestions after considering Russia is launching planes from Belarus anyways but if the problem is still "logistics" for the Mig29s is it possible to modify them with a jettisonable float for a one time seaplane takeoff, or is it legal to convert one of the seized oligarch yachts into a one time launch platform or carrier conversion?

In addition, this attack was carried out by aircraft mounting cruise missiles according to the NY times. I would guess those can launch from outside the range of anti-air defenses. I imagine that complicates things a great deal, and I am not knowledgeable enough to know whether interceptors could have intercepted them or not.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/13/world/ukraine-russia-war

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-war-alarm-grows-over-mariupol-liveblog
From 2nd link
1 hour ago (08:40 GMT)
Lviv governor says nine killed in Russian attack on base

The governor of Ukraine’s Lviv region has said that nine people were killed and 57 others were wounded in airstrike on a military facility in the country’s west.

Foreign military instructors worked at the Yavoriv military facility near the Polish border that was hit by the attack, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said, but it was not clear if any were present at the time.

12 mins ago (11:10 GMT)
At least 35 people killed in attack on Ukraine base, says governor

At least 35 people have been killed and 134 wounded in a Russian air strike on a large Ukrainian military training ground near the Polish border, regional according to governor Maksym Kozytskyy.

The previous death toll announced was nine.

***
I would still be in support of a no-fly zone or similar method despite the risk but I am not qualified to make that call and do not know what steps are in the West's response strategy. I too agree on a complete EU embargo on Russian gas and oil but I believe the EU will do everything they can do and they know what the limits of possibility are far better than I even if I urge them to cut off the flow.

I haven't seen such an atmosphere of anger and frustration in the people of my sleepy town since 9/11.

[Madman198237]

Ukraine can't realistically sortie interceptors to actually stop attacks; they can't reach enemy fighters launching missiles from the cover of their own air defense; they are already doing their best to shoot down Russian planes where possible. Launching fighters from the sea is completely nonsensical since Russia has total naval dominance (for all that it's [not] worth), and they don't need to anyway. They just can't afford to launch fighters because they'll get shot down by superior Russian numbers and newer, better fighters. Hence the very limited sorties they've been flying.